Spa jockey/agent title race

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Stats arent his strong point Rupert. I think thats pretty clear. Number of mounts have nothing to do with pure percentage of wins.

I don't know what he's so confused about. You don't need to do any complex calculations. If you want to know who would have more wins if they had an equal number of mounts, their win percentage will tell you that, that is assuming that their win percentage stays constant. If they had an equal number of mounts right now, Gomez would be up by 2. It's not rocket science.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I don't know what he's so confused about. You don't need to do any complex calculations. If you want to know who would have more wins if they had an equal number of mounts, their win percentage will tell you that, that is assuming that their win percentage stays constant. If they had an equal number of mounts right now, Gomez would be up by 2. It's not rocket science.

We arent talking about equal number of mounts Rupert. We are talking about Prado having approximately 35 more mounts than Gomez. Ok, One is riding at 20% based on his sample, the other is 21% on his sample. If you project that Gomez would ride 20% winners from that 35 more mounts, that equates to 7.35 more winners (21%). This is all I am saying.

Originally Posted by eurobounce

We arent talking about equal number of mounts Rupert. We are talking about Prado having approximately 35 more mounts than Gomez. Ok, One is riding at 20% based on his sample, the other is 21% on his sample. If you project that Gomez would ride 20% winners from that 35 more mounts, that equates to 7.35 more winners (21%). This is all I am saying.

LOL!!! This is pretty funny.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

We arent talking about equal number of mounts Rupert. We are talking about Prado having approximately 35 more mounts than Gomez. Ok, One is riding at 20% based on his sample, the other is 21% on his sample. If you project that Gomez would ride 20% winners from that 35 more mounts, that equates to 7.35 more winners (21%). This is all I am saying.

Right now, Prado has 25 more mounts and he is ahead by 3. If Prado sat out the rest of the meet and Gomez rode 25 more horses, you would expect Gomez to win 5 races and that would put him ahead of Prado by 2. If you want to give Gomez an additional 35 mounts, that would give him 10 more mounts than Prado, so if you give Gomez 35 more mounts, then you need to give Prado 10 more mounts. You would expect Prado to win 2 races from those 10 mounts. That means that he would be 2 wins behind Gomez.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Right now, Prado has 25 more mounts and he is ahead by 3. If Prado sat out the rest of the meet and Gomez rode 25 more horses, you would expect Gomez to win 5 races and that would put him ahead of Prado by 2. If you want to give Gomez an additional 35 mounts, that would give him 10 more mounts than Prado, so if you give Gomez 35 more mounts, then you need to give Prado 10 more mounts. You would expect Prado to win 2 races from those 10 mounts. That means that he would be 2 wins behind Gomez.

Exactly.......

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Exactly.......

What do you mean "exactly"? If you agree that Gomez would be ahead by 2, then what were we debating about?