Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Main Forum > The Paddock
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 12-28-2008, 05:42 PM
Pedigree Ann's Avatar
Pedigree Ann Pedigree Ann is offline
Churchill Downs
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Lexington, KY
Posts: 1,776
Default

R Clear Victory looked good winning at $23.80. Maybe there is something in this gobbledegook after all.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 12-28-2008, 08:11 PM
VOL JACK's Avatar
VOL JACK VOL JACK is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: @VOLJACK79
Posts: 2,578
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann
R Clear Victory looked good winning at $23.80. Maybe there is something in this gobbledegook after all.
Yes he did, both Assmu winners @ AQ helped my bankroll for the start of Gulfstream.
That was a difficult post position to overcome for RCV, (but helped his price) and Stewy Elliott did a good job working out a trip.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 12-28-2008, 10:49 PM
sumitas sumitas is offline
Santa Anita
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 3,362
Default

my immediate impression of the race shapes are that brisnet covers that in their pp when they denote the horse's running style . E, EP, P, S. i have always liked the quik sheets to view the horse's race pattern . i focus on that . ideally, comparing the quik sheets to the brisnet pp is the best way to go for those big days . those t-graphs are pricey.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 01-03-2009, 07:40 AM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 44,596
Default

Thoro-Graph Race of the Week is the Spectacular Bid:
http://www.thorograph.com/ROTW/20090...px0103r_09.pdf

This gives you a written analysis weekly of a stakes race with full page style TG sheet of each horse and the abbreviated style. The comments, usually done by TG's Alan Benewitz, will help novices understand the concept of pattern recognition.

We can discuss the ROTW here weekly if people are interested...
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 01-03-2009, 08:11 AM
TheSpyder's Avatar
TheSpyder TheSpyder is offline
Del Mar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Nothing could be finer
Posts: 5,142
Default

Now I understand why you're up at 4am. Just kidding, very interesting stuff and a lot of it.

What does a square on the running line mean instead of a number? Could not find that info?

Thanks Steve.

Spyder
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
Thoro-Graph Race of the Week is the Spectacular Bid:
http://www.thorograph.com/ROTW/20090...px0103r_09.pdf

This gives you a written analysis weekly of a stakes race with full page style TG sheet of each horse and the abbreviated style. The comments, usually done by TG's Alan Benewitz, will help novices understand the concept of pattern recognition.

We can discuss the ROTW here weekly if people are interested...
__________________
Don't sweat the petty things and don't pet the sweaty things.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 01-03-2009, 08:49 AM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 44,596
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheSpyder
Now I understand why you're up at 4am. Just kidding, very interesting stuff and a lot of it.

What does a square on the running line mean instead of a number? Could not find that info?

Thanks Steve.

Spyder
Spydee,

The box/square means not enough info is available to make a figure.. Frequently seen with 2yo's or from days where there were significant changes in the track. Rather than publish a potentially inaccurate fig, TG will wait until some horses run back from a race to get a better read on what the number should be from the inconclusive race.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 01-03-2009, 10:09 AM
Cannon Shell's Avatar
Cannon Shell Cannon Shell is offline
Sha Tin
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 20,855
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
Spydee,

The box/square means not enough info is available to make a figure.. Frequently seen with 2yo's or from days where there were significant changes in the track. Rather than publish a potentially inaccurate fig, TG will wait until some horses run back from a race to get a better read on what the number should be from the inconclusive race.
hard to believe that Rampillions first race still doesnt have a number
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 01-03-2009, 10:04 AM
philcski's Avatar
philcski philcski is offline
Goodwood
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Mission Viejo, CA
Posts: 8,872
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
Thoro-Graph Race of the Week is the Spectacular Bid:
http://www.thorograph.com/ROTW/20090...px0103r_09.pdf

This gives you a written analysis weekly of a stakes race with full page style TG sheet of each horse and the abbreviated style. The comments, usually done by TG's Alan Benewitz, will help novices understand the concept of pattern recognition.

We can discuss the ROTW here weekly if people are interested...
One thing I really like about Thorograph is I can see when a horse might be set up to run a new top big race, and with 2yo's and newly turned 3yo's that's much more important than with older horses. Silent Valor is NOT that horse at 2-1 and worth a bet against. His consistent 6-7's look like a horse that just isn't that fast and has limited upside. It's going to take better than a 5 or 6 that he figures to run to win this race.

You Luckie Mann has certainly run races that would win here but it concerns me that he regressed significantly going 7f with no apparent excuse versus his big figs at 5.5f. Again, not a runner I'd take a short price on, but a must use in multirace bets.

I like Jazzandthemagician at 6-1 or higher, which I expect him to be. His paired 9's aren't fast enough obviously, but the sprint-route pair then back to sprint with young horses is a pattern I've noticed often produces a top result. Plus, given the time off and some nice works he could jump up at a price. To be clear, I'm not big on the patterns in general.
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 01-03-2009, 12:18 PM
Pedigree Ann's Avatar
Pedigree Ann Pedigree Ann is offline
Churchill Downs
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Lexington, KY
Posts: 1,776
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by sumitas
my immediate impression of the race shapes are that brisnet covers that in their pp when they denote the horse's running style . E, EP, P, S. i have always liked the quik sheets to view the horse's race pattern . i focus on that . ideally, comparing the quik sheets to the brisnet pp is the best way to go for those big days . those t-graphs are pricey.
I use Bris PPs also, but I don't trust their assignment of styles with E, etc because they never seem to re-assess. So often if a horse goes up with with the leaders on a slow pace (especially if in its debut), it can get an E assignment, even if it runs from mid-pack in its next 15 races. And some horses who sit behing the pace in sprints (P) can become a front-runner around two turns. After I analyse the horses individually, I use the pace figures to try to find out who will run where during the race. See if there is lone speed or if a 'ton o' speed' melt-down is likely.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 01:28 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2026, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.