Joel Rosario

[Danzig]

there are horses who don't like inside, maybe he was instructed to not take the horse up the rail. it's conceivable that this is what happened.
it's also in the realm of possibility that had he gone up the rail, he'd have still lost-champs tends to loaf on the lead-perhaps adding to a possible illusion that obrigado was gaining/had a chance.

[stonegossard]

Originally Posted by Danzig

there are horses who don't like inside, maybe he was instructed to not take the horse up the rail. it's conceivable that this is what happened.
it's also in the realm of possibility that had he gone up the rail, he'd have still lost-champs tends to loaf on the lead-perhaps adding to a possible illusion that obrigado was gaining/had a chance.

I am pretty sure the horse doesnt mind the inside. Obrigado was inside sitting nicely for a good part of the race. If he did mind the inside then Rosario would not have tucked in....as instructed.

In my opinion, no way in hell CE would have passed Obrigado. Valdivia was all over him in the stretch, it's not like he won easily. CE is a nice horse...but is not the dominant horse some on here think. His win up at WDB was against a very weak field. He then came back to lose up there to a horse who ran pretty poor next out. I guess some of the geniuses on here didnt go back and notice that CE didnt beat Obrigado by much when they met in The San Marcos earlier this year. I believe one person on here claimed CE was "20 lengths better than Obrigado". I am glad people like that bet money into wagering pools.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I'll give you that everything you say is possible. I have just seen enough of Champs to think that if Obrigado had gotten first jump, he would have probably won. I also never said he should go up the rail. If you watch the race, I think the very winning move Champs made, Obrigado could have also. Sort of an inside out move.

At no point throughout this ridiculous thread have i said Rosario is a bad rider or anything like that. Up to the point of his decision he had ridden a flawless race, per instructions I'm sure. I just think he made a poor choice and it cost him the win. I don't expect Vic to agree, and it's fine, if i was Rosario's agent, I wouldn't post my rider made a error in judgement on a message board either.

like i said, it's possible for all that i wrote to be the case. i also think that going wide cost the horse the win. BUT since he was a decided longshot, i doubt many are surprised he didn't win-but i'm sure the line to this thread would be much longer had rosario been on the fave.
but it's also possible that regardless of ride/trip, that horse wouldn't win. too often we've seen folks get hung up on the second place horse-that had he moved a bit sooner, he'd have surely won at the end. then they bet the horse back, and whooops-they see why the horse was a long shot last time out, and deservedly so.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by Danzig

like i said, it's possible for all that i wrote to be the case. i also think that going wide cost the horse the win. BUT since he was a decided longshot, i doubt many are surprised he didn't win-but i'm sure the line to this thread would be much longer had rosario been on the fave.
but it's also possible that regardless of ride/trip, that horse wouldn't win. too often we've seen folks get hung up on the second place horse-that had he moved a bit sooner, he'd have surely won at the end. then they bet the horse back, and whooops-they see why the horse was a long shot last time out, and deservedly so.

That is indeed the point and you make it extremely well. We will never know what would have happened because there are too many variables and it is unquantifiable how much benefit the continued momentum gave Obrigado and it is impossible to know if the hole would have closed up to the inside.

If his instructions were indeed to take the horse out around the turn, getting shut off trying to stay inside would have much more far reaching consequences than just that race.

[GBBob]

I only hope that Rosario never takes a TAP horse wide who ends up testing positive....

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by GBBob

I only hope that Rosario never takes a TAP horse wide who ends up testing positive....