11/28 (AQU): Demoiselle/Remsen (Gr. II); Hill 'n' Dale Cigar (Gr. I)

[King Glorious]

In general, I do not like horses these days that win at 9f so early in their careers. They receive so much hype early in their 3yo seasons and more often than not, don't come close to justifying it. The way this horse won the Remsen did not impress me at all. I don't see him as having much of a future in most races but wouldn't count him out of the Belmont picture provided he stays healthy. He just doesn't seem to have much speed and speed is vital in today's game. There just won't be many chances to get around in 24, 49, 1:14 at the stakes level.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

In general, I do not like horses these days that win at 9f so early in their careers. They receive so much hype early in their 3yo seasons and more often than not, don't come close to justifying it. The way this horse won the Remsen did not impress me at all. I don't see him as having much of a future in most races but wouldn't count him out of the Belmont picture provided he stays healthy. He just doesn't seem to have much speed and speed is vital in today's game. There just won't be many chances to get around in 24, 49, 1:14 at the stakes level.

I'm not buying the hype either. I am, however, happy to hype Quality Road. That horse is the real deal.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm not buying the hype either. I am, however, happy to hype Quality Road. That horse is the real deal.

FINALLY, you and Stevie Belmont at Pace Ad are in agreement.

[blackthroatedwind]

Even Joe Obvious is right occasionally.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

In general, I do not like horses these days that win at 9f so early in their careers. They receive so much hype early in their 3yo seasons and more often than not, don't come close to justifying it. The way this horse won the Remsen did not impress me at all. I don't see him as having much of a future in most races but wouldn't count him out of the Belmont picture provided he stays healthy. He just doesn't seem to have much speed and speed is vital in today's game. There just won't be many chances to get around in 24, 49, 1:14 at the stakes level.

I disagree completely with you on this one. The pace was slow, but he didn't just plod around at the end- when asked, he ran the final 3F in :36 flat. Compare that to the girls who went :39 over the same final 3F. He has shown ability to rate and relax. Soundness is my biggest concern, given that he's by Unbridled's Song, otherwise I see nothing that would dissuade me from saying he's my top Derby selection at this point.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by philcski

I disagree completely with you on this one. The pace was slow, but he didn't just plod around at the end- when asked, he ran the final 3F in :36 flat. Compare that to the girls who went :39 over the same final 3F. He has shown ability to rate and relax. Soundness is my biggest concern, given that he's by Unbridled's Song, otherwise I see nothing that would dissuade me from saying he's my top Derby selection at this point.

I feel that any horse worth their weight in salt should be able to finish in 36 if they've been allowed to go the first 6f in 1:14 and change. He didn't use any energy at all early so by rights, he should have had plenty left. By the way, the difference in the final 3f of the two races is not as pronounced as you describe it here. There wasn't a three-second difference in the two races.

Remsen
Old Fashioned led through 6f in 1:14.18 and finished in 1:50.33 for a final 3f of 36.15

Demoiselle
Springside was last through 6f in 1:12.65 (about 6 3/4 lengths back for an approximate time of 1:13.73 using .16 per beaten length) and finished in 1:51.71 for a final 3f in 37.98

That's a difference of 1.83 seconds, not the three you suggested.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I feel that any horse worth their weight in salt should be able to finish in 36 if they've been allowed to go the first 6f in 1:14 and change. He didn't use any energy at all early so by rights, he should have had plenty left. By the way, the difference in the final 3f of the two races is not as pronounced as you describe it here. There wasn't a three-second difference in the two races.

Remsen
Old Fashioned led through 6f in 1:14.18 and finished in 1:50.33 for a final 3f of 36.15

Demoiselle
Springside was last through 6f in 1:12.65 (about 6 3/4 lengths back for an approximate time of 1:13.73 using .16 per beaten length) and finished in 1:51.71 for a final 3f in 37.98

That's a difference of 1.83 seconds, not the three you suggested.

Your math is correct, I was referring to the :39 difference between the calls. Springside is obviously the only one that did any running at the end.

So by the way, she ran 6F in only 2 lengths faster than OF and finished 11 lengths slower. I guess she's not worth her weight in salt.

[Riot]

Steve Haskin wrote a lovely obit for Wandering Boy

http://racing.bloodhorse.com/article/48251.htm

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by philcski

Your math is correct, I was referring to the :39 difference between the calls. Springside is obviously the only one that did any running at the end.

So by the way, she ran 6F in only 2 lengths faster than OF and finished 11 lengths slower. I guess she's not worth her weight in salt.

Sadly, we'll never know. But while I liked her race, I wasn't overly impressed by it. But I do like it more when I can see horses quicken like she did and win after a slow pace. That's more impressive for me than watching a horse set a crawling pace and run away.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Sadly, we'll never know. But while I liked her race, I wasn't overly impressed by it. But I do like it more when I can see horses quicken like she did and win after a slow pace. That's more impressive for me than watching a horse set a crawling pace and run away.

Wait a second....you aren't suggesting the Demoiselle was a slow pace.....are you?

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Wait a second....you aren't suggesting the Demoiselle was a slow pace.....are you?

That's just an opinion formed looking at the race. I admittedly didn't look at the other results from the card other than the Remsen and the Cigar to know what the track was playing like so I can't say with any certainty that the pace was slow. In general, fractions of 48.20 and 1:12.65 wouldn't be considered anything other than slow as far as I'm concerned. Of course, the looked like they had booster rockets on compared to the Remsen.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

In general, I do not like horses these days that win at 9f so early in their careers. They receive so much hype early in their 3yo seasons and more often than not, don't come close to justifying it. The way this horse won the Remsen did not impress me at all. I don't see him as having much of a future in most races but wouldn't count him out of the Belmont picture provided he stays healthy. He just doesn't seem to have much speed and speed is vital in today's game. There just won't be many chances to get around in 24, 49, 1:14 at the stakes level.

How many 9f 2yo races are there out there? The Remsen and off-and-on the Laurel Futurity (which can be regarded as a second tier race).

Horses to hit the board in the Remsen in the last 20-odd years:

Java Gold (Travers et al), Talinum (Flamingo et al)
Scan (Pegasus)
Pine Bluff (Preakness et al)
Go For Gin (Kentucky Derby)
Thunder Gulch (Kentucky Derby et al)
Skip Away (BC Classic et al)
Coronado's Quest (Travers et al), Halory Hunter (Blue Grass)
Empire Maker (Belmont et al)
Read The Footnotes (Fountain of Youth)
Bluegrass Cat (Haskell), Flashy Bull (Stephen Foster)
Nobiz Like Showbiz (Wood Memorial et al), Zanjero (KY Cup Classic et al)
Court Vision (Hollywood Derby et al)

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

How many 9f 2yo races are there out there? The Remsen and off-and-on the Laurel Futurity (which can be regarded as a second tier race).

Horses to hit the board in the Remsen in the last 20-odd years:

Java Gold (Travers et al), Talinum (Flamingo et al)
Scan (Pegasus)
Pine Bluff (Preakness et al)
Go For Gin (Kentucky Derby)
Thunder Gulch (Kentucky Derby et al)
Skip Away (BC Classic et al)
Coronado's Quest (Travers et al), Halory Hunter (Blue Grass)
Empire Maker (Belmont et al)
Read The Footnotes (Fountain of Youth)
Bluegrass Cat (Haskell), Flashy Bull (Stephen Foster)
Nobiz Like Showbiz (Wood Memorial et al), Zanjero (KY Cup Classic et al)
Court Vision (Hollywood Derby et al)

The reason I said these days is because the game has changed up a bit. I remember back when Java Gold won it, he had already showed himself to be competitive in shorter races against top horses, showing that he had some element of speed. Actually, when you look at it, even the three most recent ones that you mentioned had all won or ran well in graded stakes at a mile or less prior to the Remsen win. I guess what I was trying to get across (and in this case it was my point but I probably shouldn't use this race in general) is that I don't like horses that make their first significant impact at 9f. Show me that you've got some speed against good horses.

I didn't specifically mean only as 2yo's but just early in their careers. We get those 9f maiden and allowance races at Gulfstream for 3yo's and they usually receive an undeserving amount of hype because people think they are ahead of the game because they've won at a long distance so early and the added distance of the Derby should only improve them. Then what ends up happening is they start facing horses with real speed and they don't end up living up to the hype.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I didn't specifically mean only as 2yo's but just early in their careers. We get those 9f maiden and allowance races at Gulfstream for 3yo's and they usually receive an undeserving amount of hype because people think they are ahead of the game because they've won at a long distance so early and the added distance of the Derby should only improve them.

I'd go along with this bit here, at least as far as impact in the Triple Crown is concerned. But even then, perhaps a lot of those type horses not following through in the Derby, etc. has to do with them being "late bloomers" not quite ready for a tough trio of races as opposed to them not having any real talent. Unfortunately, they may not pan out down the road, either, but again that's easily attributed to being fried from the Derby trail, not necessarily because they're overhyped.

In any case, while I would agree that the Remsen was a "gimme" race that reveals very little about his ultimate ability, Old Fashioned did win his debut sprinting (at 13-1 odds no less), and apparently the 2nd and 3rd place horses came back to win next out, which in this day and age of light campaigns has to substitute for showing stakes class at a shorter distance. Given the recent slew of good horses that originated from Delaware (Soto, Afleet Alex, Barbaro, High Limit, etc.), its not as much of a stretch as it appears.