Calder Monday

[Bogey]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Amberdevil in the 5th at CRC, is cheap but she's cutting back and, if ridden correctly, i.e. not rushed to stay with what figures to be a contested pace early, she just might get a decent setup. Of course, Ward is deadly in these situations.

Fat Man, Nice going.

I strongly agree with your assessment of turf horses having success in turf sprints after two turn races. I follow turf racing very closely at AP and Haw and here's an example of how I used this same logic to produce a long shot winner.

Yankee Injunuity - Front runner on 8/16/08 at AP going two turns tired late, but held on for 2nd. On 9/20/08, again going two turns was forwardly placed and yielded late to finish off the board. On 10/13/08 at HAW he's entered in a turf sprint and goes off at 33-1. The same jockey (Ferrer) settles him towards the rear of the pack and makes a big late run. I have struggled with turf sprints, but this angle has produced some winners. I'll try to provide the videos of his last 3 races.

http://arlingtonpark.com/video/race-...8-08-16-race-7

http://arlingtonpark.com/video/race-...-09-20-race-10


http://hawthorneracecourse.com/live_.../081013-07.asx

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Deisel Power received a poor ride in the 1st, if this horse comes back in a few weeks it may be worth making a mental note, Though these are 10K claimers and consistent form is not one of their strong suits. The chart of this race doesn't indicate the erroneous ride by Montalvo.

[the_fat_man]

The chart does indicate that the ride was rushed. This is precisely why I'm pushing for more exact charts (in a good number of cases, the race watching process would be significantly reduced).

Moreover, they 'wiped out' the field, as the rest were retreating significantly from the turn. I can view this one of two ways:

1) the top 2 (especially the 2nd finisher) were much better than the field and will run big next out

2) they got a good setup (pace and dynamics) and would get run down in a fair race

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I think this is a case where seeing the race has a decided advantage, Montalvo moved his horse much too early, had a decided edge with less than a furlong to go and was caught while looking very much like the winner. The running line will not indicate any subtle trouble, we can be sure of that. Saying that it's really hard to get excited about playing a 10K race where horses run so inconsistently. I would play him if he is 2.5:1 in his next but this is not going to be a horse I am going to be waiting with anticipation playing in a week or 2. There are so many questionable rides these days in races without the obvious trouble lines that making notes can pay off. You won't have to wait weeks.

[the_fat_man]

The graph of the race chart shows the impatient ride. And that's why, once again, it's very important for EQUIBASE to get their charts accurate (once and for all) as it takes too much time to watch many races over many tracks. The only way anyone is playing a single circuit these days is if they're getting paid to handicap that circuit. (I'd certainly give up the game if my action was restricted to NYRA, for example.)

I realize that it's the ultimate in machismo to take down carryover exotics but the way to actually beat the races, in my opinion, is to bet ONLY when you have an advantage (not, once again, when there's a huge pot waiting if you can wade your way through races you normally wouldn't play). So, the more races/tracks one can cover, the more of an advantage one has. The key point is that there are many, many EXCELLENT plays daily; the problem is having the time to find them all. This is something I'm slowly but steadily working towards.

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Deisel Power is listed in the entries for Calder this Wed, loses Montalvo for Sanchez. This should be interesting...