Pick 4 Carryovers

[Dr. Watson]

I think a great idea would be for the NTRA to do a pick six pick 6's wager for a dime. in order to hit it you must sweep the pick 6's at six different tracks. it would be sooooooo hard!!! but!! when someone hits it!!

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Dr. Watson

I think a great idea would be for the NTRA to do a pick six pick 6's wager for a dime. in order to hit it you must sweep the pick 6's at six different tracks. it would be sooooooo hard!!! but!! when someone hits it!!

They had a $1 60 minute Pick 6 at 4 different tracks this summer (Belmont/Saratoga, Delaware, Monmouth, Philadelphia) and it was a fantastic bet and generally a success.

[Dr. Watson]

Originally Posted by philcski

They had a $1 60 minute Pick 6 at 4 different tracks this summer (Belmont/Saratoga, Delaware, Monmouth, Philadelphia) and it was a fantastic bet and generally a success.

yeah! that's a better idea. A pick 4 pick 4's. in order to win you must have all the pick 4's right at nyra. del park. manmouth. and philly park! it would pay huge and be easier to hit than a pick six pick 6's.

[herkhorse]

Originally Posted by Dr. Watson

yeah! that's a better idea. A pick 4 pick 4's. in order to win you must have all the pick 4's right at nyra. del park. manmouth. and philly park! it would pay huge and be easier to hit than a pick six pick 6's.

You can't be serious.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Dr. Watson

yeah! that's a better idea. A pick 4 pick 4's. in order to win you must have all the pick 4's right at nyra. del park. manmouth. and philly park! it would pay huge and be easier to hit than a pick six pick 6's.

Wait, I thought DaHoss won........

[SCUDSBROTHER]

I'm still trying to get a feel for the pick 5, but (so far) I think the pick 4 is a lot better bet. The pick 4 often has 2 favorites, a 2nd or 3rd choice, and a price horse. That doesn't require a lot of money to win it. The pick 5 often gets 2 price horses in it. Feels like trying to get coverage in a pick 6. The pick 4 he said I was redboarding about was one of the easiest pick 4 wins anybody could have. It was that early pick 4 at Balmoral on the 19th. Like 90% of you would of had it. It was a 7/2 followed up by three even money shots. Paid $180 for a buck though. Point of the thread is the pick 4 carrovers are paying about 4x the win parlays.

[jballscalls]

Portland Meadows $1410 Pick 5 carryover for tomorrows card. big fields tomorrow, races 5-9, goodluck!!

i'll post a ticket late tonight on my blog if you need some help!!

http://italkwhileanimalsrun.blogspot.com/

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by jballscalls

Portland Meadows $1410 Pick 5 carryover for tomorrows card. big fields tomorrow, races 5-9, goodluck!!

i'll post a ticket late tonight on my blog if you need some help!!

http://italkwhileanimalsrun.blogspot.com/

They only had $1400 in the P5 pool?

[SCUDSBROTHER]

This brings up another issue. How low do you go(in purse money) before you say it's too low? Fingerlakes is considered a small track, but the purses aren't anywhere near as low as they are at Portland.

[blackthroatedwind]

Obviously the average Pick-4 payout isn't four times the parlay but is probably somewhere around 1.5 times the parlay. This is pure mathematics and completely due to the dispersal in takeout. While the numbers aren't exact, the takeout does get divided over the number of races in any multirace bet, and thus if the Pick-4 takeout is 25% it is roughly 6% in each race....as opposed to say 17% in the win pool.

Assuming these numbers for now, a horse that is exactly 4:1 in a 100K pool, before takeout, has $16.6K bet to win on it ( 1/5 of 100K is 17K takeout ). Suppose the takeout was 6%....that same horse would pay $11.30 to win ( instead of $10 even ). Multiply this out four times ( to keep things relatively simple ). Four $10 horses give you a $1250 parlay on a $2 bet.....four $11.30 horses gives you $2038 ( or 1.63 times as much ).

Now, the real takout is probably closer to 6.75% in the example which is why I reduced it to 1 1/2 times....but you get the drift.

[blackthroatedwind]

Just to add, the middle level payouts are even better, as the combinations involving first and second choices in each race have been shown, over time, to pay under the parlay, and obviously the outlyer payouts with longshots will pay less than the parlay ( quite often there isn't close to enough money in the pool to pay the parlay, so to speak ). Thus, the payouts that incorperate some third choices or higher will pay more...possibly as much as 2 to 2.5 times the parlay over time.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by jballscalls

Portland Meadows $1410 Pick 5 carryover for tomorrows card. big fields tomorrow, races 5-9, goodluck!!

i'll post a ticket late tonight on my blog if you need some help!!

http://italkwhileanimalsrun.blogspot.com/

If it doesn't get hit Tuesday, then what's your estimate of the amount of carryover going into the next card? Can it get to a 4k or 5k pool tomorrow, and if it does, what's the size of the pool on that next card? I mean what's typical?

[SCUDSBROTHER]

The payoff on the pick 5 carryover(Balmoral) on Saturday Night was about 4x win parlay. I'd prefer the 4x win parlay on the pick 4 carryovers, but(obviously) they aren't gunna be carrying over as often.

[jballscalls]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

If it doesn't get hit Tuesday, then what's your estimate of the amount of carryover going into the next card? Can it get to a 4k or 5k pool tomorrow, and if it does, what's the size of the pool on that next card? I mean what's typical?

i would guess with it tuesday and not much other action going on today, probably atleast 5 or 6 more goes into it today.

the best situation is when there is a carryover going into sundays races. because so few people play us on sundays as compared to monday and tuesday, that you'll have 7 or 8k carry'd over, and only maybe 2000 worth of bets going in, so if you can get any.....and i mean any seperation from the chalk, you can take down the whole pool. We had one on a sunday go for 9 thousand that was 2/1, 7/2, 9/5, 7/2, 9/5

[Dr. Watson]

but it would be too hard for a $2 minimum!!! it would be such a fun bet for a dime!! Just imagine having the pick six hit at AQU. Gulfstream. Keeneland. Turfway. Golden Meadows. and having the first five at Santa Anita and being alive to the whole pick six P6's pool in the final at Santa Anita~!!! if it was me alive. Joel Rosario would probably blow it for me.

[Habersham000]

Originally Posted by Dr. Watson

but it would be too hard for a $2 minimum!!! it would be such a fun bet for a dime!! Just imagine having the pick six hit at AQU. Gulfstream. Keeneland. Turfway. Golden Meadows. and having the first five at Santa Anita and being alive to the whole pick six P6's pool in the final at Santa Anita~!!! if it was me alive. Joel Rosario would probably blow it for me.

Not Possible...Keeneland and turfway don't have meets at the same time, never heard of a track called golden meadows...

[Dr. Watson]

Originally Posted by Habersham000

Not Possible...Keeneland and turfway don't have meets at the same time, never heard of a track called golden meadows...

Golden Gate Meadows or whatever its called in northern cali. just take the six best tracks that run and make it a dime and you will get a big jackpot soon enough.

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by Dr. Watson

Golden Gate Meadows or whatever its called in northern cali. just take the six best tracks that run and make it a dime and you will get a big jackpot soon enough.

Oh please, not another 10 cent bet for the gizzers to kill the the payoff.