Worst Ride of the Year

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

Very well.

"orang" off slowly was moved outside to keep his face clean, moved past a pair with one fighting the rider and the other fighting the track, while well in hand.

Then through EXTREMELY soft splits engaged the leader and put that one away without being asked, changed leads on cue when the rider moved his hands and came to the pole clear.

The rider then threw a cross and deftly windmilled the stick with the colt responding well, before having to tattoo righthanded when "Orang" ran out of training approaching the small pole. Here the rider adroitly switched hands and hit toward the danger but the final furlong was run in race horse time and the seven month layoff and weak workout pattern took its toll.

bbb

While I haven't looked at pace figures, and imagine you haven't either, I think it is dangerous to take the fractions at face value. It was the only 5F sprint yesterday, and as I'm sure you know, Churchill has different runups for different distances that can affect fractions dramatically, but looking at the other races I think it is a mistake to call the fractions " extremely soft, " with or without the emphasis.

Regardless, while I think the Bid is overemphasizing things a bit, it was not a terrific ride to say the least, and a classic example of a rider losing a race because he panicked early during the running. I realize your opinion is stilted by two factors, a desperate need to constantly tell everyone how much smarter you are than them ( In actuality, we do this by proving ourselves not by proclaiming ourselves ) and a mad love for Robby Albarado, but of course everyone is entitled to their own opinions.

Looking forward to you perhaps posting your second winning wager in two years sometime over the coming winter season. Good capping!

[CSC]

I mentioned this yesterday, but here is a very good example of a subtle but very good ride well I think it was a great ride infact, Migliore on Mucho Macho at Aqueduct in the 3rd. Very simuliar circumstances to the CD race discussed here but very different results.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by CSC

I mentioned this yesterday, but here is a very good example of a subtle but very good ride well I think it was a great ride infact, Migliore on Mucho Macho at Aqueduct in the 3rd. Very simuliar circumstances to the CD race discussed here but very different results.

Actually, I think the Mig moved too soon on that horse. He shook him up late turn, was sticking just before he entered, and the horse took a while to change leads. The horse was very hard used.

The problem with premature moves (these jocks love to shake the horses up on the turn) is two fold:

1) all the bush dirt tracks in this country where speed holds ridiculously well (so taking the lead prematurely doesn't matter); so just about everyone rides like Mike Luzzi.

2) it doesn't cost the jockeys anything as the horses are doing all the work. If you're a cyclist, for example, and you bid prematurely, the peloton makes you pay for it (it ****in hurts!!).

These jocks just don't get it: if you attack a still strong leader (i.e. prematurely) even if you get by at some point, you're vulnerable to a later move. Going after the leader in the stretch means the horse should be at least a bit more tired and you have a better chance of going by and NOT losing 2nd. If you can't go by late then you probably wouldn't have gone by with an earlier bid.

This is NOT terribly abstruse. Hard to believe that trainers/owners repeatedly stand for this ****.

[dalakhani]

now she brings in a 60 dollar horse.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Actually, I think the Mig moved too soon on that horse. He shook him up late turn, was sticking just before he entered, and the horse took a while to change leads. The horse was very hard used.

For a horseplayer who is as insightful trip observer as you are, I just don't understand why you think he moved too early?

I couldn’t find one thing critical to say about Mig’s ride this day. Mig made 2 great decisions I thought that won him the race, first he let his horse dictate where he was most comfortable, alot of jockey's would have made the mistake and rushed up and engage the leader or even worse get in a struggle for the lead, cut throat tactics that usually mean an out of the money placing, second he made one quick move on the turn to be head to head with the Mott horse at the top of the stretch. Without sacrificing his horse he was able to be eye ball to eye ball with the Mott horse heading for home and that to me was the difference. From there on it was who ran faster to the wire, both horses had a lot of run and it was just a bob that separated them. If Mig had waited I doubt his horse would have gotten up, he would have had too much to do, it’s a tight balancing act saving horsepower and distributing it through keys moves in the body of a race, in this case if I had my money on the Mig/Jerkins horse I would have been very pleased with the distribution. How many times have we lamented overly patient rides or dumb impatient rides as is the case with the Albarado case in this thread.

[the_fat_man]

My perspective is from the most ideal trip possible.

An IDIOT would've rushed the horse to duel, and set the race up for a closer.

A better ride would be the one given by the MIG, not engaging early, but bidding on the turn.

The best ride is waiting till (straightening out in) the stretch to launch a bid.
I'm of this opinion from not only having watched countless races but also from experience with (semi) competitive (track) cycling.

Of course, this move is not the correct one on short stretch, speed favoring tracks. That's why we have all these premature moves -- jocks can't quite grasp that they don't work on 'fair' tracks. (This is also a problem for all the 'pace' handicappers who only understand the game in terms of their figures.)

The problem with putting a horse in a drive on the turn is that, eventually, the horse needs to straighten out. In almost every race you have horses going sideways as a result of being sticked while trying to straighten out for the stretch run. My suggestion: hand ride till straightening early stretch, then go to the whip in an all out ride. This assumes, of course, that the jockey is capable of shaking the horse up and putting it in a strong drive (something very, very few are able to do).

[philcski]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

lol

What's so funny?













thud

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by philcski

What's so funny?













thud

I figure it's time for btw to accept Jesus-the fat man- Christ as his lord and savior

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

These jocks just don't get it: if you attack a still strong leader (i.e. prematurely) even if you get by at some point, you're vulnerable to a later move. Going after the leader in the stretch means the horse should be at least a bit more tired and you have a better chance of going by and NOT losing 2nd. If you can't go by late then you probably wouldn't have gone by with an earlier bid.

Perfect example of this today: Sanchez on Mucho Gusto; decides to go after the still strong (after slowish fractions) speed and gets run down late losing 2nd-- doesn't even hit the board.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Perfect example of this today: Sanchez on Mucho Gusto; decides to go after the still strong (after slowish fractions) speed and gets run down late losing 2nd-- doesn't even hit the board.

It's amazing how presumptious you can be..First you figure Sanchez understands that the fractions are slowish, then you also come to the conclusion that he KNOWS the leader is still strong ish and not thru.. All while riding their laimo cow of a horse with 7 injuries and two injected ankles.. What's worse if the rider had let the STILL STRONG speed continue to loaf in slowish fractions and or presented his horse too late you would be complaining about a poorly timed belated move... 90% of the time the best horse wins so why this overweighted detail to jocks and there split second decisions is puzzling for such a good capper.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by freddymo

90% of the time the best horse wins so why this overweighted detail to jocks and there split second decisions is puzzling for such a good capper.

So 10% of the race is determined by jockeys?

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

So 10% of the race is determined by jockeys?

9 times out of ten the best horse wins the race the jock is completely irrelivant most of the time.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I'm not sure you'll ever really know with any certainty what percentage a jock has on a race. But it's not as much as you think IMO.

you can choose to be as detailed or as general as you want with horseracing.

A lot of horseplayers mainly look at running lines, finish position, class, and speed figures on a sheet of paper.

Of course the actual races aren't computer simulations based on programs to fit the data. There are actually primates riding around on top of ungulates dealing with atmospheric phenomena and track conditions. The different surfaces and distances vary enough and demand different enough ability sets to make it difficult to predict many races with data alone.

lolz jk

[CSC]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Perfect example of this today: Sanchez on Mucho Gusto; decides to go after the still strong (after slowish fractions) speed and gets run down late losing 2nd-- doesn't even hit the board.

I'm at work so I will have to view it later, but it sounds like we are in agreement. The only difference is you prefer the Jock making his move once they straighten out in the stretch. I think this is a debatable point and it really depends on which track you are running at, the type of horse running, track conditions...ect...ect when the move is made. The main point is not to engage too early as to sacrifice your horse for a good placing, I like to refer to this as horses doing the dirty work.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

When doesn't Sanchez move prematurely?

maybe he could move prematurely all over my x wife

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

If he won't, I will Freddy.

Always knew you could hit a change up

[philcski]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

When doesn't Sanchez move prematurely?

You've never Sanchez moved prematurely?








lol

[The Bid]

Today in the last race at Churchill Downs Aldo Cuntchano topped them all aboard the 4 horse. What a pathetic display

[The Bid]

Cannonshell Im looking at the charts and I see you claimed that horse. Thats a really good claim.

Are you riding Aldo Cuntchano back? Good luck with that horse should improve greatly