Fasig November Sale 3pm today

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Tapit has a long way to go. Posse was really strong two years ago and what has he done lately? Personally I like my horses to have a little more than synthetic form before I spend close to 6 million on them but that's just me.

Yes he does have a ways to go - look at Officer as well. Of course, those were sires thought to be more precocious. However, SB is obviously a very talented filly and her sire-line is very well thought off (not just Tapit) - that's all I'm saying. I guess most people assume she's going to handle the dirt.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Betsy

Yes he does have a ways to go - look at Officer as well. Of course, those were sires thought to be more precocious. However, SB is obviously a very talented filly and her sire-line is very well thought off (not just Tapit) - that's all I'm saying. I guess most people assume she's going to handle the dirt.

The problem I would have is that IEAH is supposedly in the business of making money for their clients and at this price I just think that is a longshot. Sheikh Mo can pay 100 million for a horse it makes more sense because he wont be looking to sell her or out of her. You have to be an extreme optimist to think she will ever be worth more than she is today.

[ELA]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

The problem I would have is that IEAH is supposedly in the business of making money for their clients and at this price I just think that is a longshot. Sheikh Mo can pay 100 million for a horse it makes more sense because he wont be looking to sell her or out of her. You have to be an extreme optimist to think she will ever be worth more than she is today.

I couldn't say if she was a total bust that she would be in the sale next year. However, unless they and the filly were completely embarrassed throughout the year, they can in fact breed her out for many years. Breed to race, sell, foal share, syndicate, I don't know. I am not saying the economics are sound, but fillies and mares like this will always sell for more than the economically sound number -- even in the worst of possible markets.

Eric

[parsixfarms]

If Stardom Bound needs to do anything next year to justify this purchase price, then they may be fighting an uphill battle if she follows the path of some of these recent 2YO filly champions: Folklore, Sweet Catomine, Halfbridled, Storm Flag Flying, Tempera, Caressing, and Countess Diana.

[Betsy]

I guess I knew that no other trainer really had a shot - SB is a big deal and DD is IEAH'S guy. I'm sure DD will do a good job with the filly, but I think it's sad that his big mouth is going to make people root against Stardom Bound. He turned me off of Big Brown, I know that.

[ELA]

Originally Posted by Betsy

I guess I knew that no other trainer really had a shot - SB is a big deal and DD is IEAH'S guy. I'm sure DD will do a good job with the filly, but I think it's sad that his big mouth is going to make people root against Stardom Bound. He turned me off of Big Brown, I know that.

Don't worry -- the horse doesn't know that people are rooting against her, and Dutrow probably doesn't know how you feel. More importantly, I would think he probably won't care.

Eric

[parsixfarms]

It's interesting that Iavarone said in the Bloodhorse story that they are going to be bringing in some celebrities on this deal. Does that suggest that she's going to be IEAH's Derby horse? I wouldn't expect them to get "celebrity" partners for an Oaks/Alabama filly.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by ELA

Don't worry -- the horse doesn't know that people are rooting against her, and Dutrow probably doesn't know how you feel. More importantly, I would think he probably won't care.

Eric

No, the horse doesn't know and lol, DD certainly doesn't care (I admire that attitude, in a way). For me though, it is kind of sad. SB is a likeable filly and fun to watch for many people - I hope they can see past the trainer. Me? I'm going to have to grit my teeth and/or bite on a bullet .........but I'm still glad she's staying here...AND on the East Coast.

[ELA]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

If Stardom Bound needs to do anything next year to justify this purchase price, then they may be fighting an uphill battle if she follows the path of some of these recent 2YO filly champions: Folklore, Sweet Catomine, Halfbridled, Storm Flag Flying, Tempera, Caressing, and Countess Diana.

Excellent point. In certain cases, it's not about justifying, not at all. Storm Flag Flying would be a perfect example there. Even in this case though, I don't think it's about justifying. They can breed her out for many years. Sure, complete roll of the dice, but a good looking filly, first few years, etc. That's the name of the breeding game.

So, do you think they breed to race or do they sell?

Eric

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by ELA

So, do you think they breed to race or do they sell?

Hard to say, with Big Brown part of the equation now, but it seems as if they buy to race, and then cash out when the mares are at the end of their racing careers. For example, they are selling Ariege later in this sale.

[ELA]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Hard to say, with Big Brown part of the equation now, but it seems as if they buy to race, and then cash out when the mares are at the end of their racing careers. For example, they are selling Ariege later in this sale.

Agreed. I think it can go many ways. They have a unique business model and I think it is very organic as well. Who knows.

Eric

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ELA

I couldn't say if she was a total bust that she would be in the sale next year. However, unless they and the filly were completely embarrassed throughout the year, they can in fact breed her out for many years. Breed to race, sell, foal share, syndicate, I don't know. I am not saying the economics are sound, but fillies and mares like this will always sell for more than the economically sound number -- even in the worst of possible markets.

Eric

The price is entirely too high as breeding stock especially in this market with her pedigree.

[ELA]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

The price is entirely too high as breeding stock especially in this market with her pedigree.

Too high for you. Not them, and just a tad too high for Stronach (the underbidder). Who knows that they have in mind. I have no idea who might be advising them, or what consultants they use. Maybe they plan on selling multi-million dollar yearlings one after the other.

In today's marketplace, the #'s are certainly not what they once were as far as market value. But like I said, the so called special ones will still go off the charts.

Eric

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by ELA

Too high for you. Not them, and just a tad too high for Stronach (the underbidder). Who knows that they have in mind. I have no idea who might be advising them, or what consultants they use. Maybe they plan on selling multi-million dollar yearlings one after the other.
In today's marketplace, the #'s are certainly not what they once were as far as market value. But like I said, the so called special ones will still go off the charts.

Eric

don't all breeders have that as their plan? i just wonder how workable that really is...you can't pay investors back with hope.

[ELA]

Originally Posted by Danzig

don't all breeders have that as their plan? i just wonder how workable that really is...you can't pay investors back with hope.

Of course. I was just saying that maybe to them it's easy. I have no idea.

Eric

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ELA

Too high for you. Not them, and just a tad too high for Stronach (the underbidder). Who knows that they have in mind. I have no idea who might be advising them, or what consultants they use. Maybe they plan on selling multi-million dollar yearlings one after the other.

In today's marketplace, the #'s are certainly not what they once were as far as market value. But like I said, the so called special ones will still go off the charts.

Eric

No Eric it is too high for any realistic expectation of monetary success. Who would buy her over this level? There is no market over that price. Maybe they are marking her up and making a profit on that end but there is virtually no chance that she can be worth more than this unless she does something unbelievable like wiining the Triple Crown or going 7 for 7 winning the oaks Alabama and Breeders Cup. Do you know how many multimillion dollar yearlings they will have to sell to just cover expenses, stud fees, etc? That's not even considering her purchase price. There are no players at 6 million or above except two who chose not to play now and surely arent that interested to play later at a higher price.

[ELA]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

No Eric it is too high for any realistic expectation of monetary success. Who would buy her over this level? There is no market over that price. Maybe they are marking her up and making a profit on that end but there is virtually no chance that she can be worth more than this unless she does something unbelievable like wiining the Triple Crown or going 7 for 7 winning the oaks Alabama and Breeders Cup. Do you know how many multimillion dollar yearlings they will have to sell to just cover expenses, stud fees, etc? That's not even considering her purchase price. There are no players at 6 million or above except two who chose not to play now and surely arent that interested to play later at a higher price.

Chuck, I hear you. Sure, I agree. And this is a business of self-expression . . . and boy, did we just see some self-expression! LOL.

Eric

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

The price is entirely too high as breeding stock especially in this market with her pedigree.

If she makes 1.0 mil on the track next year which is a isn't likely but clearly possible her first foal couldn't possibly sell for less then a mil even bred to DrugS. In 24 months they could argueably return 35 to 40% of her purchase price have a mare worh not less the 3.0mil in foal with another million dollar plus foal to come in 11 months.

IEAH isn't looking to strike it rich with her they are just looking to stay in public eye with recognizable names

[sumitas]

They sold Ariege for $1.8 mil . So the net outlay for SB then is $4 mil .

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by freddymo

If she makes 1.0 mil on the track next year which is a isn't likely but clearly possible her first foal couldn't possibly sell for less then a mil even bred to DrugS. In 24 months they could argueably return 35 to 40% of her purchase price have a mare worh not less the 3.0mil in foal with another million dollar plus foal to come in 11 months.

IEAH isn't looking to strike it rich with her they are just looking to stay in public eye with recognizable names

Your assumption of million dollar foals is aiming really high. What do you think Better than Honours 09 foal will be worth? Most likely they are balancing off the profits of BB to avoid taxes but on its own it is a terrible play.