10/25 (BC): BC Classic (Final)

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Interesting that Murtagh chose Duke over Henry. . .

I think Henry is EXTREMELY unlikely here. He's 75-1 in this spot as far as I am concerned.
Murtagh has a much better chance on Duke of Marmalade.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I think Henry is EXTREMELY unlikely here. He's 75-1 in this spot as far as I am concerned.

WOW "oh my god"

any reasons ?

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I think Henry is EXTREMELY unlikely here. He's 75-1 in this spot as far as I am concerned.
Murtagh has a much better chance on Duke of Marmalade.

Why exactly?

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Why exactly?

I don't like horses stretching out 2f, & I don't like horses trying a synthetic surface for the first time. He's doing both.
I just can't find any reason to think he will be effective at 10f on this surface.
He has never gone beyond a mile and there is no real reason to think the increase in distance will do anything but hurt him. When you throw in the surface-switch and the fact that he doesn't seem to be in the exact same form he was in when he rattled off those G1s this spring/summer, I think he is very unlikely.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I don't like horses stretching out 2f, & I don't like horses trying a synthetic surface for the first time. He's doing both.
I just can't find any reason to think he will be effective at 10f on this surface.
He has never gone beyond a mile and there is no real reason to think the increase in distance will do anything but hurt him. When you throw in the surface-switch and the fact that he doesn't seem to be in the exact same form he was in when he rattled off those G1s this spring/summer, I think he is very unlikely.

Eh. . . fair enough. . .

[SniperSB23]

This race is simple. Neither Curlin nor Duke of Marmalade have the turn of foot to pass the other. But both have the guts to hold the other off if they take the lead first. So whoever passes Fairbanks off the turn and gets to the lead first is going to win. Figuring out which one of those pinheads will realize that is the priceless question.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

This race is simple. Neither Curlin nor Duke of Marmalade have the turn of foot to pass the other. But both have the guts to hold the other off if they take the lead first. So whoever passes Fairbanks off the turn and gets to the lead first is going to win. Figuring out which one of those pinheads will realize that is the priceless question.

You are assuming that Duke of Marmalade will like the track....

1-2-3 box

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Scav

You are assuming that Duke of Marmalade will like the track....

He's probably as good a chance, if not better, than Curlin to take the track. I think this track equalizes everyone, turf or dirt, but I don't buy that there are many horses that don't take to it at all.

[odbaxter]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Eh. . . fair enough. . .

Also, Henry may have already peaked after a really tough campaign.

[alysheba4]

well armed should have gone here.....

[Dunbar]

Current (fixed) odds at TheGreek:

"+1015" means 10.15 to 1. $2 will pay $22.30. etc.

1401 Go Between +1015
1402 Casino Drive +805
1403 Tiago +2050
1404 Duke of Marmalade +845
1405 Henrythenavigator +625
1406 Smooth Air +3050
1407 Student Council +1615
1408 Ravens Pass +625
1409 Curlin +205
1410 Fairbanks +3250
1411 Colonel John +1015
1412 Champs Elysees +3250

--Dunbar