Betting Strategy

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by miraja2

In the example you used here the horse in 2/5, so I agree that a win bet is probably not a smart bet. However, I will say that I think some people are overly eager to rule out ever betting on an odds-on horse. Sometimes, you can actually find value in these horses.
If you see a horse that looks like a 1/5 shot to you, and the horse is 4/5 on the board, why not bet it to win?

I have no problem with this rationale.

Heck, in a short field in the right circumstances, i think bridgejumping is a good bet.

In this example he gave a 2/5 likely winner in an 8-10 horse field. Unless you can find something underneath at a price, I would just skip the race.

[Bobby Fischer]

[DogsUp]

When I am faced with this type of race, I hope it is part of the pick 4 or pick 3. That way I am faced with a pick 3 or a pick 2. You can always increase your wager to like a $10 pick 3 or a $4 pick 4. Or I like to see if an exacta will pay more than $10. If that is the case then I will put a $10 or $20 exacta down with the 2/5 horse on top of 2 horses and hope for the best. However, most of the time I skip this type of race.

[ateamstupid]

I agree with the masses here. Either pass the race or single in a horizontal bet.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I agree with the masses here. Either pass the race or single in a horizontal bet.

Unless you think you can beat the big fav., this is the way to go.

[dellinger63]

with 5 mins to post go get a beer and then sip it till they're in the gate. Go attempt to make the bet get shut out and then either count the $$$$ you saved or laugh at how little the exacta and tri paid.......

[Thunder Gulch]

There is no absolute right or mechanical answer on how to play any situation. It's not any fun, but statistically some studies showed even money horses kicked out small profits when bet to show.

If you are trying to make an exacta, everyone else will key the 2/5 horse on top as well, so you really better have some compelling reason to play it with a real longshot- not the second or 3rd choice who you think is long at 8-1 simply because the favorite has 75% of the win pool. If I think I can beat that favorite, I may backwheel with a couple of reasonable choices.

Same for trifectas. You are betting an underlay with the favorite on top and the second favorite on the board. You need to go to the 4th or 5th favorites to make it a fair proposition.