Tips/Thoughts on Breeders' Cup tickets this year?

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

Raven's Pass is one tough customer; he doesn't go under without a fight. His losses, apart from those at the straight track at Newmarket, are none of them over 1.5 lengths. He was very good early at 2, and was beaten only a head by champion 2yo and subsequent Derby winner New Approach in the Dewhurst S(G1), which is Britain's championship event for 2yos. He went a long stretch over the spring and summer without a win (behind Henry 3 times), but seemed to have taken heart from his G3 win in August to finally peg back Henry in the QEII and may be maturing later than that one. His half-brother Gigawatt certainly seems to have gone through a 'dead zone' at three after having been a SW at 2 before having his best years as an older horse; he was a dirt horse AND a turf horse.

The major knock against Raven's Pass is that he has never run at a distance beyond 8f. Sire Elusive Quality and half-bro Gigawatt were also milers, so one must wonder about his effectiveness at 10f. But his quality is quite high - they have a darned good group of 3yos in Europe this year - which can carry milers another couple furlongs beyond their optimum trip. And, oh yes, Raven's Pass has also won on a left-handed course.

Oh my god.

[Pedigree Ann]

Which statement do you disagree with?
a) superior milers can win going 10fs - Northern Dancer, Dr. Fager, Precisionist were all essentially milers but could win at longer races because of their quality.
b) the top 3yos in Britain/Ireland/Europe are a darned good group. Sophomores finished 1-2 in both the big wfa mile races in Britain this year; Derby winner New Approach was third in the York International (held at Newmarket because of flooding) after he came out of the gate throwing his head and fighting his jock the first quarter mile, then slaughtered his elders in the Irish Champion and yesterday's Champion S. And don't forget the 3yo filly Zarkava, who won the Arc.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

Which statement do you disagree with?
a) superior milers can win going 10fs ...

Yea, European turf horses are pretty much expected to add distance in America...

not sure how unique Raven's Pass is in that regard being by Elusive Quality?

[hockey2315]

Duke of Marmalade - obviously a top 10F turf horse in Europe. . . Playing against because horses are often over the top after running in the Arc and then going to the BC.

Henrythenavigator - some say he may be on the decline off of his last two, but those were on softer turf - he had a slightly tougher trip than Raven's Pass in the QEII and obviously he still ran a pretty big race. His pedigree suggests he'll appreciate the stretch-out and he should take to the synthetic. He's my play if he stays near 8-1.

Raven's Pass - seems to be improving. Win last time over HTN was pretty nice, but he may have had a slight trip advantage and liked the soft turf more than HTN. His pedigree is somewhat of a question at the distance, but he's got a shot if Curlin doesn't take to the synthetic and he outruns or outrips HTN.

[hockey2315]

What's the problem hossy?