Beyond BEL C/O Sunday: Interesting 4th

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Nice double carryover at Belmont Sunday, but take a look atthis 4th race first... Some SERIOUSLY fast, mostly light-raced, horses that could turn into any kind...

Had really thought Bordeaux Bandit was ticketed for big things after that win at Gulfstream, but it never materialized. (And where the hell is his stablemate "Paint", who looked like Zito's best 2yo at Saratoga in 2007).

This is a race well worth watching as more than a couple will be filling stakes by the winter.


4th (2:35)

1 Mile | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Allowance Optional Claiming ($75,000) | Purse: $56,000

1 Fuencia Maragh R Pompay Terri 118 L 7-2
2 Bordeaux Bandit Bravo J Zito Nicholas P 118 L 12-1
3 Buddy's Holiday Coa E M Levine Bruce N 118 L 3-1
4 Screen to Screen Velasquez C Baffert Bob 118 L 5-2
5 Eldaafer Lezcano J McLaughlin Kiaran P 120 L 8-1
6 Be Bullish Prado E S Schwartz Scott M 118 $75,000 Blk-Off L 8-1
7 Vindgari Luzzi M J Pletcher Todd A 120 L 5-1

At first I thought it wasn't all that complex but the more time I spent with it the fuzzier the end point got.

The ES for me is likely to be the #7 Vindri/#4 Screen to Screen and maybe #1 Fuencia which I think is a recipe for a late comer like #3 Buddy's Holiday or even #2 BBandit. The 5 Eldaafer is a bit of a wild card as he improved nicely when stretched to a route for an OTT 5 horse field that also saw gate to wire in a small field.

I would go with Levine's Buddy Holiday but would cover the #7 Vindgari and #2 Bordeux Bandit because he has the highest speed at the distance and closes very well should expected speed flame on re-entry

[Handicappy]

Buddy's Holiday did make a nice move in his last but just couldn't contend with Joppa Flats. There is a ton of speed in here and he may be able to pick up the pieces. Eldaafar should move forward from his last I think. I like the cut back, his 9/23 work suggests that the race didn't take alot out of him, and I like that he stayed at Belmont where McLaughlin's best assistant resides. But very, very tough race to call. Screen to Screen I think is a definate bet against though. Fuencia should enjoy the added distance and seemed to learn to rate last time out. But an OC 40K at Monmouth is just a tad different than what he faces here. Your not in Kansas anymore Terri!

[Bobby Fischer]

everybody here wants to be on the lead.

Buddy Holiday looks like he will be a big underlay. Strange that Levine didn't look for a 8.5 or even a 9furlong race where he can get an easy lead. Blinks on the Mclaughlin they aren't coming from too far off the pace...

I'm not good enough to pick this race

7) I like that Luzzi rides the 7 and that they held pretty good last time. Luzzi is a decent jockey in a route on the front end. He should dictate the action.

6) Be Bullish is fairly strong in general. If these guys all battle on the pace, he could wear them down entering the lane.

7-6

[Bobby Fischer]

pretty exciting pace duel between Screen to Screen and Buddy's Holiday.

Buddy's Holiday could win a cheap stakes if he gets entered at a 9 furlong race.

[Handicappy]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

pretty exciting pace duel between Screen to Screen and Buddy's Holiday.

Buddy's Holiday could win a cheap stakes if he gets entered at a 9 furlong race.

Your right. I didn't think Screen to Screen could run a big one again. Impressive battle.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Handicappy

Your right. I didn't think Screen to Screen could run a big one again. Impressive battle.

Screen to Screen didn't look like he wants more distance to me. But who knows?
It was hard for me to get a great guage of the quality of this race at a Mile, because I don't know how belmont has been playing. The time was around 136-137? and
I don't know how that sits with the track variant.

I could expect Levine to have Buddy's Holiday run a pretty good race if he gets an easy lead. Reminds me a little of another move-up horse = Temporary Saint although probably just because both gray Bruce Levine runners who could score on an easy route lead...

[sumitas]

http://equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/BEL101208USA4.pdf