Belmont Thursday.. Terrific racing

[Mike]

I'll start in the 3rd with Buddy's Holiday. I think he'll stay at the 5-1 ml

In the 5th, Ship's Piano looks good to me at 4-1.Two of his last three have been very strong for this level, the third race was a dud following an eight month layoff.
Now returns after a 5 day layoff

In the 6th, I think it's all about Ballast(5-1 ml) getting in due to the 50k claiming price condition. Interesting race, though

Originally Posted by Mike

I'll start in the 3rd with Buddy's Holiday. I think he'll stay at the 5-1 ml

In the 5th, Ship's Piano looks good to me at 4-1.Two of his last three have been very strong for this level, the third race was a dud following an eight month layoff.
Now returns after a 5 day layoff

In the 6th, I think it's all about Ballast(5-1 ml) getting in due to the 50k claiming price condition. Interesting race, though

I cant see Buddys Humor winning in this spot....
Ships Piano looks ok, but the race is wide open, i have at least 4 horses with chances..
Ballast is a nice horse, but i rate at least 4 higher, and at this point, with him being 7 he could very well be over the top, i would be shocked and impressed if he could beat these.

[Mike]

Originally Posted by hrfan

I cant see Buddys Humor winning in this spot....
Ships Piano looks ok, but the race is wide open, i have at least 4 horses with chances..
Ballast is a nice horse, but i rate at least 4 higher, and at this point, with him being 7 he could very well be over the top, i would be shocked and impressed if he could beat these.

I'm in the midst of a losing streak. Generally, do play alot of longshots. I think I'm trying to seriously evaluate and came up with very modest picks, oddswise.

Originally Posted by Mike

I'm in the midst of a losing streak. Generally, do play alot of longshots. I think I'm trying to seriously evaluate and came up with very modest picks, oddswise.

i can see why someone would stab with Buddys Humor or the Coa horse in the 5th, but i cant see Ballast... I think this horse is finished.

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Discreet treasure? Hasn't he burned up enough money?

he has but at a decent price tomorrow and finally getting on turf, he has to be used... especially over horses like Rouge and Frankels horse.

[Mike]

In the 'cap I'll side with Discreet Treasure. He's been the heavy favorite in all 3 of his races, lost the last two but one race was a 2nd to Dr Pleasure. He's been competitive against good quality horses for the level and is now possibly 15-1. Loved the mud in his career opening, a race that was taken off the turf. So, they give him two more shots at dirt and realize he won't excel. The switch back to a grass race should be a huge plus for this horse

[Mike]

I feel good

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by Mike

In the 'cap I'll side with Discreet Treasure. He's been the heavy favorite in all 3 of his races, lost the last two but one race was a 2nd to Dr Pleasure. He's been competitive against good quality horses for the level and is now possibly 15-1. Loved the mud in his career opening, a race that was taken off the turf. So, they give him two more shots at dirt and realize he won't excel. The switch back to a grass race should be a huge plus for this horse

Mike I wasn't trying to give you a hard time as I didn't see your comments until now when I posted. Discreet Treasure has just been one of those "Hoovers" sucking up good money while posting solid numbers and I think the turf is more desperation than desired choice but if he beats me tomorrow I'll sing your praises......

Anyone have anything on the earlier races ? 2-5 ?

3rd Joppa Flats is clearly the one to beat IMO
4th Appears to be wide open as well as the 5th

2nd... im not sure how i feel about Leo or Missile Motor

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by hrfan

Anyone have anything on the earlier races ? 2-5 ?

3rd Joppa Flats is clearly the one to beat IMO
4th Appears to be wide open as well as the 5th

2nd... im not sure how i feel about Leo or Missile Motor

Joppa Flats? Isn't that the horse that always runs 2nd?

[docicu3]

#11 Hammock (12-1 ML) is somewhat intriquing in the nightcap from the outside post with elements of both early speed and closing ability in his PP's .
Rajiv has won on him at this track and distance. If Baletti doesn't fire for some reason. Mr Sidney/Valtrus and Hammock should be the main competition the former at shorter odds than Hammock.

Discreet Treasure is another example of a decent dirt horse unable to win again trying turf as a cure for "good not great disease". Rogue Victory is interesting. I don't usually play MSW winners next out in contentious fields and this one is pretty salty for a N1X. If he beats me I'll sleep okay.

3,11/7,8 for me in the last one

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Why does he have to be used? Where is his good race?

come on man, his good race is his 56 length maiden score, one of the best jocks sticking with him, and a turf pedigree

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Mike

I'll start in the 3rd with Buddy's Holiday. I think he'll stay at the 5-1 ml

Yea it is interesting that Levine brings him back @ 7f rather than looking for a route to do the easy lead thing again. 7 and the other pace, could be a big negative, or maybe he can press and win in this mediocre group? He is the best possible play in the 3rd.

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Yea it is interesting that Levine brings him back @ 7f rather than looking for a route to do the easy lead thing again. 7 and the other pace, could be a big negative, or maybe he can press and win in this mediocre group? He is the best possible play in the 3rd.

BEST POSSIBLE PLAY ? i swear right now i am truly confused, are you making a joke or being serious ?

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by hrfan

BEST POSSIBLE PLAY ? i swear right now i am truly confused, are you making a joke or being serious ?

meaning I wouldn't play Joppa Flat's or Sleuse to win at their price.

There is a decent chance Levine believes that Buddy's Holiday doesn't need an easy lead in a route.
He's entered in a 55k 7furlong race, and Levine doesn't "waste" a lot of races.

I probably should have typed "best of the possible plays"

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

meaning I wouldn't play Joppa Flat's or Sleuse to win at their price.

There is a decent chance Levine believes that Buddy's Holiday doesn't need an easy lead in a route.
He's entered in a 55k 7furlong race, and Levine doesn't "waste" a lot of races.

I probably should have typed "best of the possible plays"

i will be putting 90% of my money into joppa as a single, using Sargent Seattle a little on some back up's

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

I probably should have typed "best of the possible plays"

"Best of possible plays" to me in the 3rd is Pat Kelly's NY bred, (#3) Good Card.. It's his first race back as he gears up for his fall-winter campaign, but he's consistant and can tuck in behind Sleuse to sit a perfect stalking trip at what figures to be well north of the 10-1 ML price.