Betting Music Note to Show

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by Danzig

when they haven't faced each other, what else is there? sure, there could be other factors that help you decide..i like music note, but can she beat the older horses she will be facing, and horses who ran very well on an AWT? i think she's only run on natural surfaces so far, so that is a very big question mark.
as for rational--well, that was hrfan who you were talking to so good luck with that.

True enough (the part I have bolded), but in MN's case, that's kind of hard to do. She apparently didn't get a great Beyer for yesterday's performance, but that would be almost impossible because she was out for a walk in the park. Let's say she got a fig in the mid 90s. On the face of it, that's not that good for a championship-type filly. However, if she had been allowed to run, I venture to say she would have run faster than 1:50 and change and she would have a higher figures. You're argument that (a) we don't know how MN will stack up against the very good older mares out there and (b) she's a ? on the surface are legitimate arguments. The #s argument in this case, though, just don't work here. Even the Alabama, which was a very good race, got a fairly low #, probably due to the very slow pace. I'm certainly not saying that Music Note is going to win the Distaff, but if she handles the surface, I would expect her to acquit herself well.