Betting Music Note to Show

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by hrfan

she stand's a 1-10% chance to win, little to no chance at all, IMO....there are at least 4 fillies who are simply Faster then her, those 4 do not include Proud Spell, and Ginger Punch. The division is so strong this year that IMO she would have had a better chance beating Curlin in 2 weeks then she does winning the distaff.

Oohk................I'm not going to bother explaining how Music Note beat Proud Spell (granted, PS had a nightmare trip - but MN lost two shoes, which no one seems to care about) and lost by a nose in the Alabama. The two fillies are thisclose. I asked this question on this board because I could expect unbiased, rational responses. I'm sorry, but your response sounds fairly biased against MN, so I can't take it too seriously. I didn't expect everyone to say that yes, she's going to win by the length of the stretch, but it's ridiculous to say that a filly as obviously talented as MN has one of the worst chances in the field to win or run very well. Nevermind Zenyatta, just what fillies are better than Music Note? I'm not going to argue Beyers. First, I have no idea what MN got yesterday and it doesn't matter, since she literally was cantering at the end. Second, I don't like reducing horse races to mere numbers just to judge who's better; I don't think it works like that.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Betsy

Oohk................I'm not going to bother explaining how Music Note beat Proud Spell (granted, PS had a nightmare trip - but MN lost two shoes, which no one seems to care about) and lost by a nose in the Alabama. The two fillies are thisclose. I asked this question on this board because I could expect unbiased, rational responses. I'm sorry, but your response sounds fairly biased against MN, so I can't take it too seriously. I didn't expect everyone to say that yes, she's going to win by the length of the stretch, but it's ridiculous to say that a filly as obviously talented as MN has one of the worst chances in the field to win or run very well. Nevermind Zenyatta, just what fillies are better than Music Note? I'm not going to argue Beyers. First, I have no idea what MN got yesterday and it doesn't matter, since she literally was cantering at the end. Second, I don't like reducing horse races to mere numbers just to judge who's better; I don't think it works like that.

when they haven't faced each other, what else is there? sure, there could be other factors that help you decide..i like music note, but can she beat the older horses she will be facing, and horses who ran very well on an AWT? i think she's only run on natural surfaces so far, so that is a very big question mark.
as for rational--well, that was hrfan who you were talking to so good luck with that.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by Danzig

when they haven't faced each other, what else is there? sure, there could be other factors that help you decide..i like music note, but can she beat the older horses she will be facing, and horses who ran very well on an AWT? i think she's only run on natural surfaces so far, so that is a very big question mark.
as for rational--well, that was hrfan who you were talking to so good luck with that.

True enough (the part I have bolded), but in MN's case, that's kind of hard to do. She apparently didn't get a great Beyer for yesterday's performance, but that would be almost impossible because she was out for a walk in the park. Let's say she got a fig in the mid 90s. On the face of it, that's not that good for a championship-type filly. However, if she had been allowed to run, I venture to say she would have run faster than 1:50 and change and she would have a higher figures. You're argument that (a) we don't know how MN will stack up against the very good older mares out there and (b) she's a ? on the surface are legitimate arguments. The #s argument in this case, though, just don't work here. Even the Alabama, which was a very good race, got a fairly low #, probably due to the very slow pace. I'm certainly not saying that Music Note is going to win the Distaff, but if she handles the surface, I would expect her to acquit herself well.

[Danzig]

sure, a televised, paid workout isn't a good indication. but on bc day she'll be tackling a new surface and older horses-if she wins, she would deserve the top 3 yo filly nod imo.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by Danzig

sure, a televised, paid workout isn't a good indication. but on bc day she'll be tackling a new surface and older horses-if she wins, she would deserve the top 3 yo filly nod imo.

What about if MN runs well in the Distaff and PS either loses or doesn't win impressively in the Cotillion? Man, that was a costly nose loss in the Alabama.