State by State

[GPK]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Keary carried it. He is up by about 4%, and I doubt that goes all the way away, and he is probably even more popular in Madison than is showing up in polling. I think he has a solid 264 with
PA CA DE HI MI NH OR NJ WA IA WI NM
CT MN IL ME MD MA NY RI VT District of Columbia, but there certainly is no other state that he can rely on. My guess is he loses Nevada, Colorado, and Ohio, and barely gets home by winning Virginia. For some reason, Virginia is pretty consistently polling for him by a sliver. It's going to be a very close election. He needs one more state, and he is gunna have to work very hard to get it. I think he gave up on Florida, and went for a V.P. that would help solidify Michigan, and give him an outside shot of winning Ohio.

not a chance in hell he carries VA.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by GPK

not a chance in hell he carries VA.

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/virginia.html

Poll after poll shows that state is virgin tight. Don't you have a Democrat running away with the senate race? This is the one state where the "Black vote" could make a difference, because it is (for sure) very close.

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/virginia.html

Poll after poll shows that state is virgin tight.

http://news.aol.com/elections/story/...05233409990018

[GPK]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/virginia.html

Poll after poll shows that state is virgin tight. Don't you have a Democrat running away with the senate race? This is the one state where the "Black vote" could make a difference, because it is (for sure) very close.

Yeah....Mark Warner is killing Jim Gilmore in the polls here. Gilmore (Rep) was one of the more inept Gov's in the history of the Commonwealth. Warner (Dem) suprised me and turned out to be a great leader for Virginia during his term.

All that is fine and dandy, but I still don't see Obama carrying Virginia. There is too big of a rural vote throughout the Commonwealth and many of those people are gonna have a VERY hard time punching that ticket on election day for a black man. It's the same thing when Doug Wilder (black man) was elected Gov of Virginia. Every poll from here to eternity had him with an insurmountable lead...it was a given he was gonna win. He only ended up winning by a few thousand votes. So what people tell pollsters and what ticket they end up punching when noone else is looking does not always jive.

McCain picking Palin will carry him a long way in Virginia. A woman that hunts and that has a son and nephew getting ready to be deployed to Iraq...the men and women throughout the rural areas will identify with her and cling to her as someone that will look out for things that mean the most to them. They resist change a great deal and there is not alot for them to identify with when it comes to a Ivy League black man and a pompous know it all from the Northeast.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by GPK

not a chance in hell he carries VA.

Still disagree with you there.

[jwkniska]

with Palin as McCain's running mate, no way does he carry OH. Obama will carry downtown Cleveland, Columbus and maybe Cincy (unions and black vote)... no way does he carry any rural county. He'll lose the veteran (which Ohio has a ton of) and male vote by a wide margin and with a pro-life woman on the ticket, will lose the women vote too.

If they chose Hillary, Obama could have won it (the rural women would vote for Hillary over Obama... as they did in the primary or over McCain), but will now almost all vote for McCain since there's a pro-life woman on the ticket. They would have looked past the pro-life part for Hillary, but with them not taking her, the democrats will lose the state... probably by a wider margin than most will expect too.

Grew up there and know the area and the way the people will vote.

I will say one thing for Obama though... he's better off in Ohio by himself, because the type of person that Biden is... is exactly what they cannot stand.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by jwkniska

with Palin as McCain's running mate, no way does he carry OH. Obama will carry downtown Cleveland, Columbus and maybe Cincy (unions and black vote)... no way does he carry any rural county. He'll lose the veteran (which Ohio has a ton of) and male vote by a wide margin and with a pro-life woman on the ticket, will lose the women vote too.

If they chose Hillary, Obama could have won it (the rural women would vote for Hillary over Obama... as they did in the primary or over McCain), but will now almost all vote for McCain since there's a pro-life woman on the ticket. They would have looked past the pro-life part for Hillary, but with them not taking her, the democrats will lose the state... probably by a wider margin than most will expect too.

Grew up there and know the area and the way the people will vote.

I will say one thing for Obama though... he's better off in Ohio by himself, because the type of person that Biden is... is exactly what they cannot stand.

so like i said to kev...

if there's no way mccain wins ohio, why are the dems campaigning so hard there?

[jwkniska]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

so like i said to kev...

if there's no way mccain wins ohio, why are the dems campaigning so hard there?

McCain will win Ohio easily, since he picked Palin. Obama's campaigning there, as he doesn't want to lose by as wide a margin as it will probably be (so that it doesn't look to the west coast, CA, OR, etc that he doesn't have a chance before their polls close... also holds true for the mountain/central time zones, whose polls close after Ohio's). That will help all the local dems in those areas, as it'll make more of their base go to the polls west of Ohio (could easily get deterred if he's already predicted the loser). Actually smart on their behalf (I hope it doesn't work!!!), as the dems want to have the congress if McCain gets elected... to try to counter him.

If Dean and the democrats think they can win OH without Hillary, they're way out of touch with reality. The republican women vote could have gone to Obama if they picked Hillary (which probably would have been enough for Obama to win about 52-48), but without a woman on the ticket, they're sunk as any of the rural areas will not vote for a black guy. I'd say McCain wins OH 55-44 (always have to throw a percent or 2 for some crazy 3rd party).

I lived in rural OH for 24 years... trust me, I know the area and their voting habits well.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by jwkniska

McCain will win Ohio easily, since he picked Palin. Obama's campaigning there, as he doesn't want to lose by as wide a margin as it will probably be (so that it doesn't look to the west coast, CA, OR, etc that he doesn't have a chance before their polls close... also holds true for the mountain/central time zones, whose polls close after Ohio's). That will help all the local dems in those areas, as it'll make more of their base go to the polls west of Ohio (could easily get deterred if he's already predicted the loser). Actually smart on their behalf (I hope it doesn't work!!!), as the dems want to have the congress if McCain gets elected... to try to counter him.

If Dean and the democrats think they can win OH without Hillary, they're way out of touch with reality. The republican women vote could have gone to Obama if they picked Hillary (which probably would have been enough for Obama to win about 52-48), but without a woman on the ticket, they're sunk as any of the rural areas will not vote for a black guy. I'd say McCain wins OH 55-44 (always have to throw a percent or 2 for some crazy 3rd party).

I lived in rural OH for 24 years... trust me, I know the area and their voting habits well.

Want to bet? Thankfully a good portion of Ohio isn't in the rural areas. McCain could win the state (and still the election) but I can't see him getting 50% of the vote and 55% is completely impossible.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Want to bet? Thankfully a good portion of Ohio isn't in the rural areas. McCain could win the state (and still the election) but I can't see him getting 50% of the vote and 55% is completely impossible.

9.4 million of the 11.5 million people in Ohio live in urban areas.
Thankfully, statistics overrule poorly devised opinion when properly researched.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Want to bet? Thankfully a good portion of Ohio isn't in the rural areas. McCain could win the state (and still the election) but I can't see him getting 50% of the vote and 55% is completely impossible.

Was about a 3% loss by Keary in Ohio in 2004. OBAMA is a better candidate, but it's one thing to make it closer, and another to win it. Cincy doesn't have the greatest race relations etc. I think much of the state is a little racist, and it's an uphill fight for Obama to actually win it. I think he might barely win Virginia(instead.) I think he will hold these states he has small leads in(like MN, AND NM, WI,) and he will then only need to win eitherColorado, Ohio, or Virginia to get the 270. Winning just Nevada would get him a tie(269-269.) I do think McCain has to win all these states, and he very well may do that.

[GPK]

I will be interested to see how the southeast corner of Virginia is voting, more specifically the military personnel. Every branch of the military has a huge presence down there and the local economy relies heavily upon that presence and the jobs it creates, both directly and indirectly.

[TheSpyder]

I think the Southeast is going to be pivotal as neither side has picked candates to really capture this area. VA, NC, SC, GA, FL. I have not seen the polls but whoever gets this area will win.

Still a lot of time to see changes and with little attention thus far I say it's wide open. Can't wait until the debates. I think that will settle this election and see the biggest shifts in votes.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by GPK

not a chance in hell he carries VA.

kev-

you can keep posting that but poll after poll shows it's a toss up. i haven't seen anything the last 3 months that had either ahead by more than the margin of error.

watch how many trips mccain and palin make to va the next 2 months and then tell me there's no chance.

[dalakhani]

Biden was in Manassas on wednesday.