mccain's vp

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by pgardn

The Republicans made the race closer.

No they didn't.

The shift in betting odds offshore and the exchange markets indicate the opposite.

when you make a decision that causes you to go from a slightly less than 3/2 underdog to a slightly more than 2/1 underdog - you actually lessened your chances significantly.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

No they didn't.

The shift in betting odds offshore and the exchange markets indicate the opposite.

when you make a decision that causes you to go from a slightly less than 3/2 underdog to a slightly more than 2/1 underdog - you actually lessened your chances significantly.

What were the odds with Romney as VP?
The Republicans made the race closer.

Exchange markets?
What does that have to do with the price of Key Lime Pie?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I'm going to assume you are trolling me and not serious.

Still, I'll explain odds to you in horse racing terms. This was the result of a study that had a monster sample size of over 1.7 million starters.


Odds Group: ----- Starts: ------ Wins: ------ Win %:
.10 and .49 5,232 3,279 62.7%
.50 and .99 37,832 17,810 47.1%
1.00 and 1.99 127,878 42,384 33.1%
2.00 and 2.99 160,770 38,130 23.7%
3.00 and 3.99 146,444 26,658 18.2%
4.00 and 4.99 120,926 18,133 15.0%
5.00 and 5.99 99,186 12,451 12.6%
6.00 and 6.99 86,216 9,524 11.0%
7.00 and 7.99 75,891 7,330 9.7%
8.00 and 8.99 67,300 6,018 8.9%
9.00 and 9.99 60,439 4,692 7.8%
10.0 and 10.9 53,115 3,852 7.3%
11.0 and 11.9 47,781 3,127 6.5%
12.0 and 12.9 42,650 2,601 6.1%
13.0 and 13.9 37,929 2,097 5.5%
14.0 and 14.9 34,558 1,786 5.2%
15.0 and 19.9 131,289 5,699 4.3%
20.0 and 29.9 161,552 4,922 3.0%
30.0 and 39.9 94,676 1,696 1.8%
40.0 and 49.9 60,113 839 1.4%
50.0 and 59.9 40,150 391 1.0%
60.0 and 99.9 66,946 393 0.6%
100 & Greater 15,977 40 0.3%


As you can see - even money shots are always going to win at a higher percentage than 2/1 shots, 2/1 shots are always going to win at a higher percentage than 3/1 shots, 3/1 shots are always going to win at a higher clip than 4/1 shots and on and on.

Ok, so let's change Obama's name to Wait A While and pretend he's a horse. Let's change McCain's name to Black Mamba and pretend he's a horse. They are going to have a match race and the betting odds will reflect a big takeout reduction.

Wait A While with jockey Joe Bravo up is the early favorite. Black Mamba with a jockey TBA is the underdog at 7/5 odds.

Ok, Now, it is being announced that Shannon Uske has been named as the jockey for Black Mamba.

Subsequently, the odds tail up, Black Mamba is 8/5 after a few hours. 9/5 the next day, and finally drifts up to 2/1 odds.

Now, did the naming of Shannon Uske to ride Black Mamba increase the chances of victory? Clearly not.

Now, if you think Black Mamba is just plain better than Wait A While regardless of jockey, you are thrilled because you've got yourself a better price.

McCain is obviously not trying to cash a bet. He took Palin because he thought she would give him the best chance to win. The offshore betting lines and exchange markets are a better overall indicator of probability than anything else.

McCain simply took a gamble and it has backfired on him. Had he been able to move from the 7/5-to-3/2 range into the even money-to-6/5 range with his VP pick - I would have called it a brilliant move on his part even though I personally don't like Palin at all.

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'm going to assume you are trolling me and not serious.

Still, I'll explain odds to you in horse racing terms. This was the result of a study that had a monster sample size of over 1.7 million starters.


Odds Group: ----- Starts: ------ Wins: ------ Win %:
.10 and .49 5,232 3,279 62.7%
.50 and .99 37,832 17,810 47.1%
1.00 and 1.99 127,878 42,384 33.1%
2.00 and 2.99 160,770 38,130 23.7%
3.00 and 3.99 146,444 26,658 18.2%
4.00 and 4.99 120,926 18,133 15.0%
5.00 and 5.99 99,186 12,451 12.6%
6.00 and 6.99 86,216 9,524 11.0%
7.00 and 7.99 75,891 7,330 9.7%
8.00 and 8.99 67,300 6,018 8.9%
9.00 and 9.99 60,439 4,692 7.8%
10.0 and 10.9 53,115 3,852 7.3%
11.0 and 11.9 47,781 3,127 6.5%
12.0 and 12.9 42,650 2,601 6.1%
13.0 and 13.9 37,929 2,097 5.5%
14.0 and 14.9 34,558 1,786 5.2%
15.0 and 19.9 131,289 5,699 4.3%
20.0 and 29.9 161,552 4,922 3.0%
30.0 and 39.9 94,676 1,696 1.8%
40.0 and 49.9 60,113 839 1.4%
50.0 and 59.9 40,150 391 1.0%
60.0 and 99.9 66,946 393 0.6%
100 & Greater 15,977 40 0.3%


As you can see - even money shots are always going to win at a higher percentage than 2/1 shots, 2/1 shots are always going to win at a higher percentage than 3/1 shots, 3/1 shots are always going to win at a higher clip than 4/1 shots and on and on.

Ok, so let's change Obama's name to Wait A While and pretend he's a horse. Let's change McCain's name to Black Mamba and pretend he's a horse. They are going to have a match race and the betting odds will reflect a big takeout reduction.

Wait A While with jockey Joe Bravo up is the early favorite. Black Mamba with a jockey TBA is the underdog at 7/5 odds.

Ok, Now, it is being announced that Shannon Uske has been named as the jockey for Black Mamba.

Subsequently, the odds tail up, Black Mamba is 8/5 after a few hours. 9/5 the next day, and finally drifts up to 2/1 odds.

Now, did the naming of Shannon Uske to ride Black Mamba increase the chances of victory? Clearly not.

Now, if you think Black Mamba is just plain better than Wait A While regardless of jockey, you are thrilled because you've got yourself a better price.

McCain is obviously not trying to cash a bet. He took Palin because he thought she would give him the best chance to win. The offshore betting lines and exchange markets are a better overall indicator of probability than anything else.

McCain simply took a gamble and it has backfired on him. Had he been able to move from the 7/5-to-3/2 range into the even money-to-6/5 range with his VP pick - I would have called it a brilliant move on his part even though I personally don't like Palin at all.

holy sh*t doug

[Mike]

So what does all this mean with regards to the odds that little Caylee is still alive?

[Cannon Shell]

I'm still stunned that people here actually watch the vice presidential debate or think it will have any bearing on the race.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'm going to assume you are trolling me and not serious.

McCain is obviously not trying to cash a bet. He took Palin because he thought she would give him the best chance to win. The offshore betting lines and exchange markets are a better overall indicator of probability than anything else.

McCain simply took a gamble and it has backfired on him. Had he been able to move from the 7/5-to-3/2 range into the even money-to-6/5 range with his VP pick - I would have called it a brilliant move on his part even though I personally don't like Palin at all.

I am trolling you?
I thought I posted an opinion and you rejected it based on
betting odds which I totally understand, but you did not
prove anything about the odds with Romney, which was
the candidate I had made the comparison with.

And again, the exchange markets...?
Relevance?

[GPK]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

No they didn't.

The shift in betting odds offshore and the exchange markets indicate the opposite.

when you make a decision that causes you to go from a slightly less than 3/2 underdog to a slightly more than 2/1 underdog - you actually lessened your chances significantly.

Doug....called me stupid and slow, but just how are offshore betting odds and exchanges markets indicative of how the American people are gonna vote come Nov?

If I could get over 2/1 that McCain/Palin will win come Nov, I'd be quite happy with it.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by GPK

Doug....called me stupid and slow, but just how are offshore betting odds and exchanges markets indicative of how the American people are gonna vote come Nov?

If I could get over 2/1 that McCain/Palin will win come Nov, I'd be quite happy with it.

Yeah, they were all over Hillary in the ESPN preseason poll...oops sorry Doug...

I think there are a large number of white democrats that won't vote for Obama for an undisclosed reason and overlooking this reason is giving the american people the benefit of the doubt. Don't be foolish.

[Mike]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

I think there are a large number of white democrats that won't vote for Obama for an undisclosed reason and overlooking this reason is giving the american people the benefit of the doubt. Don't be foolish.

Well, disclose this reason please

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by Mike

Well, disclose this reason please

It ain't HC

and I think he's right

im guessing Hillary Clinton.

HC

Originally Posted by Mike

Well, disclose this reason please

I think the word white has something to do with it.

Obama is going to get a whole lot of the "kids" voting
in record numbers.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by GPK

Doug....called me stupid and slow, but just how are offshore betting odds and exchanges markets indicative of how the American people are gonna vote come Nov?

If I could get over 2/1 that McCain/Palin will win come Nov, I'd be quite happy with it.

www.ehorsex.com

Right now you can get over $3,000 worth of action on John McCain winning the presidentcy at 2/1 odds.

They are only offering you $1,300 worth of action on Obama winning and at odds of slightly less than 1/2 favortisim.

I think McCain is sucker bait at 2/1 - I'd hold out for a bigger price if I were you.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

www.ehorsex.com

Right now you can get over $3,000 worth of action on John McCain winning the presidentcy at 2/1 odds.

They are only offering you $1,300 worth of action on Obama winning and at odds of slightly less than 1/2 favortisim.

I think McCain is sucker bait at 2/1 - I'd hold out for a bigger price if I were you.

Thanks for the link.

But help me out please. How are those two things indicative of how people are gonna vote? I guess Im not seeing the relevance here.

Originally Posted by GPK

Thanks for the link.

But help me out please. How are those two things indicative of how people are gonna vote? I guess Im not seeing the relevance here.

If I might.

I think he is assuming the betting public that would take on this sort of political wager will be a good indicator of how people are going to vote. I dont find this unreasonable.

I would like to learn about the exchange market theory though...

[GPK]

Originally Posted by pgardn

If I might.

I think he is assuming the betting public that would take on this sort of political wager will be a good indicator of how people are going to vote. I dont find this unreasonable.

I would like to learn about the exchange market theory though...

But what % of that money is being wagered by Americans? I would think there has to be a huge margin of error based on the amount of money coming in from overseas.

Originally Posted by GPK

But what % of that money is being wagered by Americans? I would think there has to be a huge margin of error based on the amount of money coming in from overseas.

I would agree.
But they may be betting based on polls they feel are reliable at this point in the race.

[Mortimer]

The snot thickens.