Curlin retired?

[CSC]

Pass The Point would have jumped up to a 108 - 109 then... This after being an average of about 90 in his career, though he did get a 103 for his last effort. Head scratching.

Post Edit, all this while setting contested fast fractions, either he is a very good horse on the upswing or the numbers are amiss.

[Quiet Chris]

Originally Posted by CSC

Pass The Point would have jumped up to a 108 - 109 then... This after being an average of about 90 in his career, though he did get a 103 for his last effort. Head scratching.

Post Edit, all this while setting contested fast fractions, either he is a very good horse on the upswing or the numbers are amiss.

He is obviously a year older and a better horse. He hadn't run on the dirt in over a year and it shouldn't be surprising that he ran a 108 or 109 yesterday considering his last race.

A 112 beyer is pretty much exactly what Curlin deserved based on the other races yesterday, but considering there was only the one other route it is hard to say how accurate the number was.

The JCGC will be the real test. He will have had his prep to get him fit and he will be running at his ideal distance. We will find out if Dubai took something out of him and he simply isn't the same horse as last year, or he will run huge and stamp his place in history.

He isn't beating a horse like Henrythenavigator in the BCC anyway, so if they were smart they wouldn't even bother to show up.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Quiet Chris

He is obviously a year older and a better horse. He hadn't run on the dirt in over a year and it shouldn't be surprising that he ran a 108 or 109 yesterday considering his last race.

A 112 beyer is pretty much exactly what Curlin deserved based on the other races yesterday, but considering there was only the one other route it is hard to say how accurate the number was.

The JCGC will be the real test. He will have had his prep to get him fit and he will be running at his ideal distance. We will find out if Dubai took something out of him and he simply isn't the same horse as last year, or he will run huge and stamp his place in history.

He isn't beating a horse like Henrythenavigator in the BCC anyway, so if they were smart they wouldn't even bother to show up.

Though Curlin has a ways to go before I compare him to Cigar, I remember thinking the same thing about him when he started to look ordinary. Now ordinary for Cigar was still very good, but you knew you were seeing him on his downside. I have that same feeling Curlin's best races are behind him.

[Linny]

Originally Posted by Quiet Chris

He is obviously a year older and a better horse. He hadn't run on the dirt in over a year and it shouldn't be surprising that he ran a 108 or 109 yesterday considering his last race.

What? Curlin ran on dirt 2x last fall, and in the Stepehn Foster. The Nad al Sheba track is a mix of dirt and synthetic so you can call it what you want.

[CSC]

I think the Bottom line is Curlin has looked rather ordinary his last 2 races, I hinted at this after his turf race, many dismissed it to the surface; however my reasoning was he had a great trip sitting off the leaders and really had no excuse for a horse of his stature to not pick them up down the lane, given the conditions of the race were written to him to a Tee. I would be surprised if this horse has many more races left in him and retirement as Chuck hinted can't be far off.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by CSC

I think the Bottom line is Curlin has looked rather ordinary his last 2 races, I hinted at this after his turf race, many dismissed it to the surface; however my reasoning was he had a great trip sitting off the leaders and really had no excuse for a horse of his stature to pick them up down the lane, given the conditions of the race were written to him to a Tee. I would be surprised if this horse has many more races left in him and retirement as Chuck hinted can't be far off.

Actually his last three races have been pretty ordinary, the Foster wasn't anything special either.

I hope for his handlers' sake he's fine but I have been very underwhelmed lately.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by philcski

Actually his last three races have been pretty ordinary, the Foster wasn't anything special either.

I hope for his handlers' sake he's fine but I have been very underwhelmed lately.

You bring up something very interesting, when the discussion of great horses comes up or more particular "Cigar". I never believed he got enough credit for staying at that high level for that amount of time as he did. Though it is a fair arguement his competition was not the strongest during his streak, his numbers were very consistent, was he as fast as Ghostzapper? No. But in fairness to Cigar had Ghostzapper ran the exact same campaign as Cigar did, I doubt he would have been as brilliant as Cigar was. It's an Apples and oranges argument.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by CSC

You bring up something very interesting, when the discussion of great horses comes up or more particular "Cigar". I never believed he got enough credit for staying at that high level for that amount of time as he did. Though it is a fair arguement his competition was not the strongest during his streak, his numbers were very consistent, was he as fast as Ghostzapper? No. But in fairness to Cigar had Ghostzapper ran the exact same campaign as Cigar did, I doubt he would have been as brilliant as Cigar was. It's an Apples and oranges argument.

Cigar was also much faster than Curlin on a regular basis...

The Classic and the Dubai World Cup were extremely impressive to me, otherwise he's been merely very good and very consistent.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Linny

What? Curlin ran on dirt 2x last fall, and in the Stepehn Foster. The Nad al Sheba track is a mix of dirt and synthetic so you can call it what you want.

He was talking about the runner up.

I think Curlin's figure is a little high, but not grossly so. The Spinaway on Sunday appears to be inflated about 10 points. The pace was very hot and there was no running going on the last furlong at all.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Linny

What? Curlin ran on dirt 2x last fall, and in the Stepehn Foster. The Nad al Sheba track is a mix of dirt and synthetic so you can call it what you want.

You sure about the bolded part?

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Scav

You sure about the bolded part?

He can't be, because it wasn't true when he ran.

[GPK]

He's done enough.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by CSC

Pass The Point would have jumped up to a 108 - 109 then... This after being an average of about 90 in his career, though he did get a 103 for his last effort. Head scratching.

Beyers are getting to be a joke. Last Sunday at AP the winner of the 1st going 1 1/16th got a number 10 points higher than the winner of the third going the same distance 4/5ths slower and with no weather or track maintenance. not to mention the winner of the 2nd and 8th getting the same number despite the second difference in time at the same difference. The projections that they make often trump what actually happens.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Beyers are getting to be a joke. Last Sunday at AP the winner of the 1st going 1 1/16th got a number 10 points higher than the winner of the third going the same distance 4/5ths slower and with no weather or track maintenance. not to mention the winner of the 2nd and 8th getting the same number despite the second difference in time at the same difference. The projections that they make often trump what actually happens.

I primarily use bris numbers, I agree the numbers are askew at times and the conspiracist in me may even think fudged. I haven't played Mountaineer in a long time but I always thought the figure maker there was on acid also.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by CSC

I primarily use bris numbers, I agree the numbers are askew at times and the conspiracist in me may even think fudged. I haven't played Mountaineer in a long time but I always thought the figure maker there was on acid also.

Horses there and delaware get numbers that are rarely duplicated anywhere else

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

chuck you need to call out curlin..maktus match race.. purse 5 cases of natty light..

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I'd be shocked if the sheets have the race coming back as fast as the Beyer. He carried 126lbs and was hung wide - these days, when that happens and a horse still runs a 112 Beyer it comes back a virtually near all-time record performance on sheets.

The pace figure for the Woodward was 23 points faster than the final figure. You look at the days other route race - horses racing dead last and second to last after the first six furlongs - through a 1:12.70 pace in a 9 horse field - catapulted past the rest of the field and had four lengths on the 3rd place finisher at the finish.

A.P Arrow got a 102 Beyer in the Woodward and he was the horse who clearly ran the most shockingly poor race to me. He had the race unfold perfectly for him and still got beat 6.75 lengths to Curlin at level weight...even worse, he was defeated by both a fried Past The Point and a fried Wanderin Boy with no excuse.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

A.P Arrow got a 102 Beyer in the Woodward and he was the horse who clearly ran the most shockingly poor race to me. He had the race unfold perfectly for him and still got beat 6.75 lengths to Curlin at level weight...even worse, he was defeated by both a fried Past The Point and a fried Wanderin Boy with no excuse.

Shockingly poor? Really? It's the same lousy race he always runs. You were expecting a significantly better result from him?

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Horses there and delaware get numbers that are rarely duplicated anywhere else

That's not just on the Beyers though.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Shockingly poor? Really? It's the same lousy race he always runs. You were expecting a significantly better result from him?

I think you badly are missing the point.

Even at 31/1 odds going into the race - I didn't bet A.P. Arrow or use him on any tickets.

However, if I had been able to forecast the savage nature of the pace and how the race was run - I think he would have been a virtual lock to finish on the board that race - and most certainly defeat Past The Point and Wanderin Boy.

I didn't like Devine Park at all going in - but the way the race was run - for him to return from a layoff at 9fs - he became even that much more of an extremely high percentage proposition to run a non-effort.

I made only a single bet in the race - a Curlin over Wanderin Boy straight exacta.

However, it's crystal clear that from an analytical standpoint - Past The Point is the horse who comes out of this race with the surprisingly good performance and A. P. Arrow - more so than Curlin - comes out of this race with the surprisingly bad performance.

[GBBob]

I just would like an honest answer that if you owned Curlin, you wouldn't say wtf and just run in the BC and hell be damned.