Pletcher explains Flower Alley's last race

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Sheesh, Rupert, Invasor is "ridiculously overrated"? Compared to WHOM? The horse has lost 1 race, right? In Dubai to Discreet Cat. He comes here and reels off 3 straight wins, 2 of them in races with hallowed names in American racing. He has 2 of the top 15 BSF's run in route races this year. He's not winning these races by default.

Using Sun King as a measure of how good Invasor is is like using Sharp Humor to measure Barbaro. I'm sure there are horses that did (and will) beat Sharp Humor by more than the 1/2-length that Barbaro beat him in the Florida Derby. Are those horses on a level with Barbaro because they handled Sharp Humor more easily?

oracle, I think there are legitimate reasons to like Invasor a lot more than Sun King. Sun King has run some nice races, but he has thrown in numerous clunkers, too. Consistency counts for a lot.

--Dunbar

I'm just giving my opinion. I have no stake in this. I have no connection to Invasor or FA. Invasor is obviously a good horse. He's one of the top few best horses on the East coast right now. But some years the horses are stronger than other years. On the East coast this year, I don't think the older horses compare to the older horses on the East coast in 2004 or 2005.

By the way, I think that Discreet Cat beat Invasor by about 7 lengths or something like that.

With regards to the Barbaro/Sharp Humor comparison, I think that Barbaro ran about 5-6 lengths better in the Derby than in his win over Sharp Humor. I think Invasor ran his race against SK.

To address what Danzig was saying, I'm not saying that FA is better than Invasor right now. I'm saying that when FA is at his best he is much better than Invasor.

There are several horses out there right now that I think would beat Invasor by open lengths on their best day. I think that on his best day Bernardini would beat Invasor by 3-4 lengths. I think that LAva Man and surf cat would both easily handle Invasor on their best day. I think that Buzzard's Bay would esily handle Invasor on his best day. I will be extremely surprised if Invasor wins the BC Classic.

[Gander]

There are several horses out there right now that I think would beat Invasor by open lengths on their best day. I think that on his best day Bernardini would beat Invasor by 3-4 lengths. I think that LAva Man and surf cat would both easily handle Invasor on their best day. I think that Buzzard's Bay would esily handle Invasor on his best day. I will be extremely surprised if Invasor wins the BC Classic.

I agree with all this. I think Sun King should have been able to get by Invasor yet he didnt. Neither strike me as a major player in the Classic, especially if Bernardini runs in it.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

To address what Danzig was saying, I'm not saying that FA is better than Invasor right now. I'm saying that when FA is at his best he is much better than Invasor.

There are several horses out there right now that I think would beat Invasor by open lengths on their best day. I think that on his best day Bernardini would beat Invasor by 3-4 lengths. I think that LAva Man and surf cat would both easily handle Invasor on their best day. I think that Buzzard's Bay would esily handle Invasor on his best day. I will be extremely surprised if Invasor wins the BC Classic.

On a horse's "best day", a lot of things can happen. Some horses do not need their best day to run at the very top level. Invasor has answered each call so far. So has Bernardini, for that matter. FA has thrown in clunkers that have to be explained with whatever excuse seems most logical. Same thing with Buzzard's Bay. I would take Invasor against FA or Buzzard's Bay in a matchup at +100 if given the chance. For that matter, I'm not sure we've seen Invasor's best day yet.

If you will be "extremely surprised if Invasor wins the BC Classic", then who do you think is a more likely winner? I can only think of Bernardini and Lava Man. If you think any other horse is more likely, then we can make a "friendly" bet on the race. It can either be a matchup (whichever horse finishes in front of the other) or we could say that one of the horses must win. You pick a horse other than LM or Bernardini, and I'll accept it. (um...before the Pacific Classic, of course.) Maybe leave out David Junior, too--I'm thinking US-based horses ;>)

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Rupert, I do agree that this year's group of older horses appears to be weaker than the past couple of years. I'm not touting Invasor as an heir to GZ or Saint Liam or RIM. But I think he is very near the top of what we've seen this year.

--Dunbar

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I'm just giving my opinion. I have no stake in this. I have no connection to Invasor or FA. Invasor is obviously a good horse. He's one of the top few best horses on the East coast right now. But some years the horses are stronger than other years. On the East coast this year, I don't think the older horses compare to the older horses on the East coast in 2004 or 2005.

By the way, I think that Discreet Cat beat Invasor by about 7 lengths or something like that.

With regards to the Barbaro/Sharp Humor comparison, I think that Barbaro ran about 5-6 lengths better in the Derby than in his win over Sharp Humor. I think Invasor ran his race against SK.

To address what Danzig was saying, I'm not saying that FA is better than Invasor right now. I'm saying that when FA is at his best he is much better than Invasor.

There are several horses out there right now that I think would beat Invasor by open lengths on their best day. I think that on his best day Bernardini would beat Invasor by 3-4 lengths. I think that LAva Man and surf cat would both easily handle Invasor on their best day. I think that Buzzard's Bay would esily handle Invasor on his best day. I will be extremely surprised if Invasor wins the BC Classic.

hard to say what he'd do at his best, when was the last time we've seen it? or here's a scary thought, what if his bad day the other day is now his best?

as for invasor losing to discreet cat, he never lost before, and he hasn't lost since--yet he's getting a whole lot of grief for that one time when he shipped in and sputtered. and now he's here, giving lie to the dreaded dubai jinx, and cleaning house.

hey, i have to say i hope they figure out what's wrong with flower alley. nothing i enjoy than watching good horses go toe to toe. but i'm leery about the continued high praise for a horse that has won once in a years time.