How deep is to deep in the pk4?

[ateamstupid]

Generally I try to limit my tickets to $75 or less, with the goal being ~$50. The only way I'd usually go higher is if there were four consecutive races with 10+ starters and either no heavy favorite or a vulnerable one.

There are plenty of ways to make money at the track. If I find myself making a $150 Pick 4 ticket, I stay away from the sequence.

[onebadbeast]

Horizontal Bets Suck....that Is Why The Qpk Button Is Made.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by onebadbeast

Horizontal Bets Suck....that Is Why The Qpk Button Is Made.

Disagree:
Horizon bets usually provide the best value, with the payoffs usually paying higher than the parlay.

I'm a weekend warrior, so the last pick 4 I played was the one on SOS day at Calder. ( 3.20 - 4.60 - 18.20 - 3.60 ) The Pick 4 payout was $220.70 for a buck. The Pick four payout was way higher than the parlay.

Now in the above pick four, anyone betting more than $150 into the sequence was crazy as Indyanne and Benny the Bull bookended the sequence and the fields were rather short.

On the other hand, betting a $150.00 ticket at Delmar ( or anywhere else ) where the fields are large and the races are wide open, sometimes if you DON'T bet enough you are only cheating yourself by not giving yourself the right opportunity to hit the ticket. ( example: BBB )

If I feel that to properly structure my P4 ticket will cost too much, than betting a Pick 3 is an option.

If you haven't read Christ's Exotic Betting book - its a must for any pick 4 player.

wac: if you dont have the book, shoot me a PM w/address. I have 2 copies ( got 2nd as a gift ) I'll give you the other one.

[Bigsmc]

I am a "feel" bettor. If I have a strong opinion that the sequence is going to produce some prices, I will gladly put in a $144 ticket. If I find I don't have strong opinions, I'll keep it under $50. If I have very strong opinions on a single or two (or three or four), I may play a small ticket and hit it multiple times.

It also depends on the track I am playing and my track record at that track with P4's. I do not get crazy with tracks that I know I don't do well at. This goes back to the record keeping discussion.

I never follow any strict rules. More often than not, I do not single. The big payouts come when that obvious single (or two) is upset.

[docicu3]

[quote=Bigsmc]I am a "feel" bettor. If I have a strong opinion that the sequence is going to produce some prices, I will gladly put in a $144 ticket. If I find I don't have strong opinions, I'll keep it under $50. If I have very strong opinions on a single or two (or three or four), I may play a small ticket and hit it multiple times.

It also depends on the track I am playing and my track record at that track with P4's. I do not get crazy with tracks that I know I don't do well at. This goes back to the record keeping discussion.

The big payouts come when that obvious single (or two) is upset.

Probably the most important statement in the thread as the more upsets of heavy favorites there are in a sequence whether it is a P3-P4 or P6 ....
1) The higher the payoff and 2) The more likely a strategy that does not play a caveman ticket to some extent will not cash that sequence.

For instance if you are playing the "A"" B" "X" approach and you get 2 or 3 bombs or $20 or more win payoffs they are probably not the most logical or chalk. By spreading out in a sequence that is unlikely to go to favorites, you allow yourself to cash a big one but if truth be told you probably should play more than a single ticket by the "Exotic Betting" philosophy to cover your bases but likely get smaller return so you don't invest heavily and have the sequence pay poorly. A very loose rule of thumb for myself is to invest 2/3 of my money caveman looking for the big score with a third invested in the other strategy.

[jms62]

"invest 2/3 of my money caveman looking for the big score'

Ditto... The pro's of Crists methodolgy is he is going to hit some multiple times BUT I think the way he sets up he is going to miss the bombs the 10-15 k'ers that make your meet and year.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by jms62

"invest 2/3 of my money caveman looking for the big score'

Ditto... The pro's of Crists methodolgy is he is going to hit some multiple times BUT I think the way he sets up he is going to miss the bombs the 10-15 k'ers that make your meet and year.

That's exactly opposite from the truth.

[jms62]

How would he catch 3 bombs in the sequence ?

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

More often than not, I do not single. The big payouts come when that obvious single (or two) is upset.

Still floating around on that Big Truck cloud, eh?

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Still floating around on that Big Truck cloud, eh?

Damn straight....

I have a question regarding that. If I had fallen over the balcony while celebrating, who would've gotten to my body first and stolen the ticket out of my shirt pocket?

Rudeboyelvis 5-2
TC 6-5
Cannon Shell 2-1
31lengths 9-5
3kings 3-1 (he would've been slowed because he would be the only one to dial 911)

[Scav]

You got to make 31lengths the favorite as you have to take the fact that he has major agility working for the Rays. While TC has some moves, 31lengths outmanuevers him I think

Chuck should be about 10/1, if I had to guess, he might be the slowest human being on the planet

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by Scav

You got to make 31lengths the favorite as you have to take the fact that he has major agility working for the Rays. While TC has some moves, 31lengths outmanuevers him I think

Chuck should be about 10/1, if I had to guess, he might be the slowest human being on the planet

So 31 has more value. Cannon is not an auto-toss, he was sitting closest to the aisle (therefore giving him a spot on the golden rail) and the others would have to get past him to get to my lifeless body and reach into the parimutuel pocket.

[3kings]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

Damn straight....

I have a question regarding that. If I had fallen over the balcony while celebrating, who would've gotten to my body first and stolen the ticket out of my shirt pocket?

Rudeboyelvis 5-2
TC 6-5
Cannon Shell 2-1
31lengths 9-5
3kings 3-1 (he would've been slowed because he would be the only one to dial 911)

lol you're right I would have called 911 and was still somewhat repulsed by the visual I brought up in the marge schott story. My money is on 31L: sober, smaller(better to move through the large crowd) and well aware of the parimutuel pocket.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

Damn straight....

I have a question regarding that. If I had fallen over the balcony while celebrating, who would've gotten to my body first and stolen the ticket out of my shirt pocket?

Rudeboyelvis 5-2
TC 6-5
Cannon Shell 2-1
31lengths 9-5
3kings 3-1 (he would've been slowed because he would be the only one to dial 911)

I had the rail and was blocked 4 wide...No way I get there unless jumped and landed on ya