I Hope....

In a 7 horse turf race in which two horses run off seems to lead to considerable latitude for the other 5. The probability of getting tightly bunched is lower and the race becomes diff. in terms of traffic. That seems significant. Also determining who will take the lead in the other bunch and what kind of pace to set becomes important. If Red Rocks went at them earlier for fear they would run off and Curlin followed suit, then Better Talk Now may have been there.

Splitting a small field up like that in a turf race seems significant. These huge turf fields where no horse wants the lead... traffic and placement become much bigger factors. Then they all make a giant run and the race becomes tighter more than at any other time barring the start. I think this is why turf races are so attractive for some people. You got a chance with a lesser horse.

I dont do these stats, but I would think that turf races have far fewer even money favorites than dirt fields of the same size, 8 horses and over.

[GenuineRisk]

I'm the first to admit I'm a novice in knowing what to look for before a race, but I didn't think Curlin looked great before the race. Not bad, exactly, but kind of tired. Definitely not the way he looked before the JCGC, when I couldn't take my eyes off of him. He also wasn't walked around the paddock until the very last second, right before Albarado hopped up on him. FGFan tells me Asmussen often leaves his horses in the saddling area until the last second at the Fairgrounds, but before the JCGC last year he was walked a lot. They might have just been trying to keep him cool as it was humid yesterday; I don't know. So, I thought he ran a very good race for a horse that I didn't think looked 100 percent before the race. I guess I'd like to see him run turf one more time before deciding it's not for him.

Other DTers who were there yesterday can and will probably say he looked fine; again, I certainly can't claim to be an expert; it was just my impression.