CD R9: I just don't get this move

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

It's not all about breeding. In fact, it's NEVER about breeding for me and ALL about trips.

Typically, unless we're dealing with bush type tracks (or speed favoring tracks) turf horses don't stretch out as easily as they cut back. It's a matter of footwork, as trying 2 turns for the 1st time presents problems for them.

Who's the sire of English Colony?

TRIPS are superordinate to BREEDING and TRAINER angles. Fact of the matter.

No one variable is infallible which is why you have to be aware of more than the history of a horses "trips". Trip handicapping gets you into trouble as much as any other "superordinate" variable. Which is why you blame the jock when a horse doesn't win that you are sure is "much the best". The random element of trips has the same pit falls as pedigree only or TA only handicapping. Success is about a formula, made from all, that works not a magic ingredient.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by docicu3

No one variable is infallible which is why you have to be aware of more than the history of a horses "trips". Trip handicapping gets you into trouble as much as any other "superordinate" variable. Which is why you blame the jock when a horse doesn't win that you are sure is "much the best". The random element of trips has the same pit falls as pedigree only or TA only handicapping. Success is about a formula, made from all, that works not a magic ingredient.

In point of fact, I blame the jock when he blows the race BECAUSE I have a high level understanding of intuitive pace and race setups. A GENERALIST might not be able to fully understand this.

There are random or, better, uncontrollable, components in trips, I agree. However, someone skilled at it can explain in terms of trips why a horse didn't run well. In these cases, I don't blame the jockey.

Since the game is about THE RACE, I figure that going directly to the source is the best way to approach it. Others, the majority, seem to think that the best method is through abstractions; numeric or otherwise.