Pacific Classic

Originally Posted by Gander

Let me add that I was very much against Tin Man when originally analyzing this race and the horses I thought most likely to win were Ace and Better Talk Now.

After watching the race, this is clearly what I think:

1) Yes the other jockeys were mistaken to let Tin Man go out and run slow.
2) Yes English Channel got a wide trip, but whos to say it cost him a win? Will never know.
3) Cacique got the best trip of anyone besides Tin Man and even with the pace being as slow as it was, he had every shot to go by if he was really that good. He wasnt.
4) Better Talk Now should retire. First time in his life hes run 2 very poor back to back races.
5) Tin Man is a lot better than I thought.

Tim your statement on number 3 is absolutely absurd, and I mean ridiculous. The winner came home in 22:3. There is absolutely no way that Cacique or anyone else was going to go by, Secretariat wouldn't have gone by. At a mile and a quarter when a horse is on the hedge saving all ground and comes home in 22:3, well I mean you might not see that the rest of your life. It was the function of a pace that was TWENTY LENGTHS SLOWER than the fillies ran in the Beverly D. Cacique was very good, I just don't know where you are coming from by saying he had every chance to get by. Do you have any idea how crazy that is to say? He was two lengths back and also in tghe outside path, in order to have "gotten by" the winner he would have to have come home in 22 flat. Do you really think its reasonable or at all sane to say that a horse wasn't that good because he couldn't come home in 22 flat for the last 1/4 mile of a 1 1/4 turf race? Tim, thats just maniacal.

Originally Posted by oracle80

Tim your statement on number 3 is absolutely absurd, and I mean ridiculous. The winner came home in 22:3. There is absolutely no way that Cacique or anyone else was going to go by, Secretariat wouldn't have gone by. At a mile and a quarter when a horse is on the hedge saving all ground and comes home in 22:3, well I mean you might not see that the rest of your life. It was the function of a pace that was TWENTY LENGTHS SLOWER than the fillies ran in the Beverly D. Cacique was very good, I just don't know where you are coming from by saying he had every chance to get by. Do you have any idea how crazy that is to say? He was two lengths back and also in tghe outside path, in order to have "gotten by" the winner he would have to have come home in 22 flat. Do you really think its reasonable or at all sane to say that a horse wasn't that good because he couldn't come home in 22 flat for the last 1/4 mile of a 1 1/4 turf race? Tim, thats just maniacal.

Very well said Oracle. No one had a chance of getting by The Tin Man...not even the great Awad could have gotten by. The race was over when he got the half in 50 and change. At that point it was lights out. You cannot let a horse like The Tin Man do that.

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Very well said Oracle. No one had a chance of getting by The Tin Man...not even the great Awad could have gotten by. The race was over when he got the half in 50 and change. At that point it was lights out. You cannot let a horse like The Tin Man do that.

That statement(tim's number 3) is like saying this if you think about it.
Now I'm willing to bet that in American racing history that no horse on the grass at a mile and a quarter race(or dirt) has EVER come home in 22 flat. Sprinters run that for a first quarter, but routers will not do it for a last quarter.
That statement translates to this "By not running by the winner, Cacique showed he really isn't very good because he failed to do something that no horse in American history had ever done". Umm, does that sound really rational to any of you?
It was one of the flukiest pace races in history. For the filles and mares to have gone TWENTY LENGTHS FASTER(visualize that in your head if you can, the leader in the Beverly D would have been TWENTY LENGTHS ahead of The Tin Man) is mind boggling. The Million was beyond a crawl, it was a walk. Therefore when they turned for home the front two both had completely full tanks of gas and could sprint to the wire. The only difference was that one had a jump on the other, and that margin was almost EXACTLY what the difference at the wire was. They both flew home the same way, its just that after crawling that slow one in front had the edge.

[Gander]

Okay maybe so. But still you cant diminish a horse like the Tin Man because of a running style, which by the way is a brilliant one. He never has poor trip excuses when he loses like the others. Its comical, he actually has an excuse why he won a million dollar race, and people talk about the fact that the jockeys gave him this race over the fact that the horse has tremendous ability.

Originally Posted by Gander

Okay maybe so. But still you cant diminish a horse like the Tin Man because of a running style, which by the way is a brilliant one. He never has poor trip excuses when he loses like the others. Its comical, he actually has an excuse why he won a million dollar race, and people talk about the fact that the jockeys gave him this race over the fact that the horse has tremendous ability.

Tim he is a nice horse but you are fooling yourself and not us. The fact is that Live Life(who actually held 3rd in the Beverly D!!!!) went exactly 20 lengths faster than the Tin man. Your argument holds no water. Envisoon The Tin Man TWENTY lengths behind Live Life. There is no way to even begin to express just how slow the pace was. The minute the 3/4 time was up on the board there wasn't any way it was going to be anything but those two horses in that order. Horses that talented who are allowed to go that slow will never chuck it. Hes a great horse, he was before the Million and is now, but you really can't say that the race proved anything except that the connections on cacique and English Channel were extremely arrogant and igonred the Tin Man's ability. However if you feel so strongly that he is better than those two horses I will be happy to bet you straight up if they meet again that both horses beat the Tin man. be happy to give you that proposal, very happy. They got fooled once, they won't get fooled the next time.

[Gander]

Never said he was better Mike, this is my exact quote.

I did not and still do not think the Tin Man is better or worse than English Channel or Cacique. I think they are all pretty close and pace and luck determines which horse wins on any given time they meet. Its as simple as that.

But to bet English Channel to win at 2/1 versus the Tin Man at 5/1 considering the post positions is pretty absurd. English Channel is a nice horse but there is simply way too much to guess at in turf racing.

Originally Posted by Gander

Never said he was better Mike, this is my exact quote.

I did not and still do not think the Tin Man is better or worse than English Channel or Cacique. I think they are all pretty close and pace and luck determines which horse wins on any given time they meet. Its as simple as that.

But to bet English Channel to win at 2/1 versus the Tin Man at 5/1 considering the post positions is pretty absurd. English Channel is a nice horse but there is simply way too much to guess at in turf racing.

Like I said, if there is a rematch and you wanna go heads up against either lemme know. hes a very good horse who got very lucky.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Like I said, if there is a rematch and you wanna go heads up against either lemme know. hes a very good horse who got very lucky.

This looked like an European type pace...only I don't recall so many of those so-called great turf horses coming home as fast as the Tin Man. I agree with Oracle that the slow pace doomed anyone behind The Tin Man but his final quarter was still pretty damn amazing and I think it's grossly unfair to say a claimer could have won even with that pace...again, 22 and change for the final quarter equates to "real racehorse" talent regardless of the early fractions. Obviously the course was playing fast, but saw what you will, The Tin Man demonstrated that he continues to be a threat in any race...although I suspect he'll see more rabbits from here on out than could be produced by Bugs Bunny attending a three day orgy!

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by oracle80

However if you feel so strongly that he is better than those two horses I will be happy to bet you straight up if they meet again that both horses beat the Tin man. be happy to give you that proposal, very happy. They got fooled once, they won't get fooled the next time.

IMO, that would be a very poor bet on your part, oracle. It's as if you are ignoring the Dubai race and the rest of TTM's resume since he came back. I would take that proposition even with a sacrificial rabbit in the race. For that matter, I would have taken the Tin Man side of that proposition even before the Arlington Million.

I'm not saying he is clearly better than either EC or Cacique. (Though I suspect he is every bit as good as either) But I would definitely take him to finish ahead of at least one of them if all 3 meet in the BC Turf or other upcoming race.

--Dunbar

[irishtrekker]

Time for "really stupid amateur fan question of the day." If the pace was that slow and other jocks knew it could be a problem, why wouldn't you take your horse past the Tin Man instead of backing up behind him? Couldn't a horse who didn't usually run in the lead still go to the front and build the pace a little without causing himself too many problems? At least start moving ahead before they round the final turn? Or are racers such creatures of habit that they need to run in a certain position in the pack?

Sorry if that's obvious as hell.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by irishtrekker

Time for "really stupid amateur fan question of the day." If the pace was that slow and other jocks knew it could be a problem, why wouldn't you take your horse past the Tin Man instead of backing up behind him? Couldn't a horse who didn't usually run in the lead still go to the front and build the pace a little without causing himself too many problems? At least start moving ahead before they round the final turn? Or are racers such creatures of habit that they need to run in a certain position in the pack?

Sorry if that's obvious as hell.

Meg....in a race like that...who wants to risk ruining thier horses chance of winning by trying something complete different just to wear down another horse and set it up for someone else to win. Too much money at stake in a million dollar race like that.

[irishtrekker]

Good point. Thanks! Still, if you know you're probably screwed anyway, might as well give it a shot (...and that's why people like me will never be trainers). Although I see the problem if an early move makes you finish out of the money entirely, instead of at least nabbing some place or show cash.

[dr. fager]

At the same time, I don't like the fact EC hasn't been able to settle along the backstretch when JV has a firm hold on him....he overcame it in the United Nations but not in this field.

Nice thing is come 10/7 he'll have Ramzutti to do the dirty work for him...kind of ironic considering all the talk about BTN having a rabbit.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by dr.fager

At the same time, I don't like the fact EC hasn't seem to been able to settle along the backstretch when JV has a firm hold on him....he overcame it in the United Nations but not in this field.

Nice thing is come 10/7 he'll have Ramzutti to do the dirty work for him...kind of ironic considering all the talk about BTN having a rabbit.

thats strange to me too Bill. He has shown that a little in his last couple races. Im trying to think back to last years races, but I swear I don't recall him being unwilling to settle like that.

[Gander]

Brings me to a question. English Channel and Ramzautti are owned by 2 different people so how can Pletcher sacrifice Ramazutti as a rabbit to benefit English Channel, a horse owned by somebody else? Why would the owner of Ramazutti wanna fry his horse so Pletcher and the other owner of Eng Channel can put cash in their pockets? Or do they work up some sort of deal and split the purse?

Its why I like to bet speed in turf races. If your horse is good enough he/she wins. Never has excuses like the other ones who depend on trips.