Bridge jumper on Zenyatta

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I find it amusing that he didn't restrict the bets to tracks in places like Arkansas and West Virgina that pay a $2.20 minimum to show.

In the most rare of cases - bridge jumps in those states aren't always terrible bets.

That is - unless the stewards resort to phantom DQ's like in the case of Nicole's Dream.

Thats not the point and perhaps you are not trying to understand the point. But thats okay...

The point is, if a graded stake horse races a month before and dominates and the conditions are almost exactly the same the next month, why would said horse not at least show especially when the field is 6 deep? Especially a horse that is undefeated, in form and not shipping and the weather is fine.

Phantom DQ's happen but really how many do you see? There is less chance of that than catastrophic injury.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Thats not the point and perhaps you are not trying to understand the point. But thats okay...

The point is, if a graded stake horse races a month before and dominates and the conditions are almost exactly the same the next month, why would said horse not at least show especially when the field is 6 deep? Especially a horse that is undefeated, in form and not shipping and the weather is fine.

Phantom DQ's happen but really how many do you see? There is less chance of that than catastrophic injury.

Really?

Serious injury, minor injury, jockey mistake, stumble and lose rider, break terribly, too hot for the horse, horse regresses.. There are a million reasons a horse can run way worse than it did recently. I seem to remember a horse running out of the money in a big race recently for NO APPARENT REASON. Tip of the tongue..

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Really?

Serious injury, minor injury, jockey mistake, stumble and lose rider, break terribly, too hot for the horse, horse regresses.. There are a million reasons a horse can run way worse than it did recently. I seem to remember a horse running out of the money in a big race recently for NO APPARENT REASON. Tip of the tongue..

The horse which i think you are referring wouldnt have been a good bridge jumping bet in my opinion. Again, i will get accused of redboarding (for the record I thought that Big Brown would win) but we had a three year old with injury concerns running his third race in a little over a month and trying a distance of 1.5 miles on a track he had never run on. That is not a good opportunity in my opinion.

Curlin at the Stephen Foster was not a great one either. Dubai jinx on a track he had never run on? Too many questions and history would suggest betting against these types.

This is basically a risk v. reward discussion.

Since people seem to assess risk in very different ways
as already demonstrated in this thread, we are at a dead end.

For me personally the risk far outweighs the reward in
the example given to an extent it makes no sense at all.
I doubt this thread would have gone more than 3 posts
had the horse lost its rider, etc...

For others who need a quick grand...I hope you dont need
a quick grand too many times.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by pgardn

This is basically a risk v. reward discussion.

Since people seem to assess risk in very different ways
as already demonstrated in this thread, we are at a dead end.

For me personally the risk far outweighs the reward in
the example given to an extent it makes no sense at all.
I doubt this thread would have gone more than 3 posts
had the horse lost its rider, etc...

For others who need a quick grand...I hope you dont need
a quick grand too many times.

well said although my stance wouldnt have changed.

Cheers!

[rontheman1964]

Originally Posted by pgardn

This is basically a risk v. reward discussion.

Since people seem to assess risk in very different ways
as already demonstrated in this thread, we are at a dead end.

For me personally the risk far outweighs the reward in
the example given to an extent it makes no sense at all.
I doubt this thread would have gone more than 3 posts
had the horse lost its rider, etc...

For others who need a quick grand...I hope you dont need
a quick grand too many times.

BINGO!!!! Bridgejumping (in my point of view) defeats the whole idea of pari-mutual wagering. Instead of laying out a large sum of money and praying for the jockey to ride (your less than even money favorite) hard to the wire in order to save the show pool. You could easily spread less money to win on the 4 or 5 horses in the pool who are 4-1 to 10-1 and probably have a shot at making a decent profit without having to lay out so much cash to start with. That is how I like to play races with short fields (5 to 8 horses). Let the odds work for you instead of lowering your own payoff with an overly large bet. Again, risk vs reward.