Bridge jumper on Zenyatta

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

I'm guessing even Zenyatta will fail to come top 3 once every 10-15 times. To make this bet a winning proposition, horses like her have to come top 3 atleast 21 times in a row.

Do you know why this is incorrect?

[ateamstupid]

Never thought I'd see the day where bridgejumping was defended on Derby Trail.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Never thought I'd see the day where bridgejumping was defended on Derby Trail.

no sh*t...shouldn't this just be combined with Fischers thread?

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Never thought I'd see the day where bridgejumping was defended on Derby Trail.

Instead of closing your mind to it altogehter and dismissing it as amatuerish, wouldnt it be better to understand the logic and statistics on a particular bet first?

[ELA]

Interesting how the disucssion includes "how much" for "how little" and the validity of the logic behind such a bet.

Eric

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by ELA

Interesting how the disucssion includes "how much" for "how little" and the validity of the logic behind such a bet.

Eric

Personally i think the risk was minimal and paid handsomely in regards to the amount of the risk.

Basically he risked 200k that a horse would not get injured for an instant 5% return that is tax free.

Granted not all bridgejumping scenarios are like this. There are plenty of odds on bets that are horrible bridge jumping plays.

But to dismiss any and all bridge jumping bets as bad is closeminded in my opinion.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Jesus.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Instead of closing your mind to it altogehter and dismissing it as amatuerish, wouldnt it be better to understand the logic and statistics on a particular bet first?

what statistics?

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

what statistics?

What logic?

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

What logic?

What mind?

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

What logic?

you know. all winning bets are smart after that fact. that logic.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

you know. all winning bets are smart after that fact. that logic.

Therein lies the key to this whole thread.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I've seen several VERY controversial DQ's involving bridgejumped horses over the last two years.

Someone bet over 150K to show Nicole's Dream in a small stake at Mountaineer. She won in hand by 8 or 9 in course record time but was DQ'd for a phantom call.

Proud Spell was DQ'd just last week. She needed only to beat two mediocre allowance horses.

Outcashem - who had won something like 12 races in a row - was DQ'd in a hapless starter allowance race at Timonium that led to blockbuster show payoffs.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

what statistics?

What is the percentage of odds on favorites that finish in the money?

What is that percentage in stakes races?

What is the percentage in races where horses are facing similar company to the last?

What is the percentage for horses racing in similar conditions (ie track, distance, company) as last?

I bet when you break all of it down, without even taking into account what type of uber talent Zenyatta has or how bad those particular horses were, that the percentage is extremely high.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

What is the percentage of odds on favorites that finish in the money?

What is that percentage in stakes races?

What is the percentage in races where horses are facing similar company to the last?

What is the percentage for horses racing in similar conditions (ie track, distance, company) as last?

I bet when you break all of it down, without even taking into account what type of uber talent Zenyatta has or how bad those particular horses were, that the percentage is extremely high.

even if the horse could be projected to be itm 99/100 times that's still far less value than finding a horse you think is 3/1 to win going off at 10-1.

it's just stupid on so many levels.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

even if the horse could be projected to be itm 99/100 times that's still far less value than finding a horse you think is 3/1 to win going off at 10-1.

it's just stupid on so many levels.

Yeah, and that is such a great bet? What are the statistics behind that bet? How often does that win? What percentage would you have to hit in order for that to be profitable for YOU? And just because your bet is a good one (and im not saying its not) what makes the bridge jumper's bet so stupid?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

even if the horse could be projected to be itm 99/100 times that's still far less value than finding a horse you think is 3/1 to win going off at 10-1.

it's just stupid on so many levels.

Not to mention that the percentage of odds-on favorites that finish in the money has to be way less than 99%.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

What is the percentage of odds on favorites that finish in the money?

What is that percentage in stakes races?

What is the percentage in races where horses are facing similar company to the last?

What is the percentage for horses racing in similar conditions (ie track, distance, company) as last?

I bet when you break all of it down, without even taking into account what type of uber talent Zenyatta has or how bad those particular horses were, that the percentage is extremely high.

don't you need to know the answer to those questions first before taking a stand on whether or not its a wise wager?

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

What is the percentage of odds on favorites that finish in the money?

What is that percentage in stakes races?

What is the percentage in races where horses are facing similar company to the last?

What is the percentage for horses racing in similar conditions (ie track, distance, company) as last?

I bet when you break all of it down, without even taking into account what type of uber talent Zenyatta has or how bad those particular horses were, that the percentage is extremely high.

Can anyone think of a horse that recently went off 1-20 to win who ran out of the money?

All the "good" situations you mention are more than negated by this.

Plus, I think any good horse running these days has a 10% chance of getting injured in any race. Maybe the steed would still stagger in 3rd for you.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Can anyone think of a horse that recently went off 1-20 to win who ran out of the money?

All the "good" situations you mention are more than negated by this.

Plus, I think any good horse running these days has a 10% chance of getting injured in any race. Maybe the steed would still stagger in 3rd for you.

I cant think of a 1-20 that ran out of the money given the criteria i layed out. If you can name it.


As for 10% getting hurt, that is just not accurate.