Bridge jumper on Zenyatta

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by pgardn

This person put that bet up in the last minute.
So this person probably drastically changes the show pool size
which this person(s) would hopefully realized. So I guess they
are banking on some bad horses to come in along with their "winner"

But since the payout is the minimum, the other two horses in
the money most likely were horses that should have been at least close
to "in the money horses" as viewed by the public. Or they just did not
look at the show pool size before they bet.

I guess I see that as a perfectly horrible bet.
A less than 5% profit risking 200K... God help me.

I am a before the outcome is known kinda fella.
This betting entity had 200K; just pay Vito the grand for Christ sakes.

All fallacies in my reasoning appreciated...

I dont think anyone would accuse me of redboarding when i say that I predicted Zenyatta would at least come in third today. As a matter of fact, I predict she comes in no worse than third in any race she runs in this year. But, we are only discussing today's race so that doesnt matter.

One couldnt bet her to win at 1/9 (which is what she was until the last tick) because at that price you might as well bet to show.

Basically, with the field and race set up, you are betting against injury. That was all that was going to keep Zenyatta from finishing in the money today.

Is Bridge jumping a horrible bet? I think under the right circumstances, bridge jumping is a great way to make a profit.

Originally Posted by dalakhani

I dont think anyone would accuse me of redboarding when i say that I predicted Zenyatta would at least come in third today. As a matter of fact, I predict she comes in no worse than third in any race she runs in this year. But, we are only discussing today's race so that doesnt matter.

One couldnt bet her to win at 1/9 (which is what she was until the last tick) because at that price you might as well bet to show.

Basically, with the field and race set up, you are betting against injury. That was all that was going to keep Zenyatta from finishing in the money today.

Is Bridge jumping a horrible bet? I think under the right circumstances, bridge jumping is a great way to make a profit.

Yes I understand betting to show instead of win.
But my gosh, I just dont see making the bet at all.

And I have seen many situations where you are betting
against extraordinary circumstances, injury, etc...

I just dont see making the bet at all. If you are desperate to
pay Vito the mobster his grand, you got 200K to adequately take
care of that. I guess its a risk v. reward assessment that I cannot
fathom.

Ahhh, maybe some guy owed a grand and had a rich buddy he did
not want to ask for money, just borrow and returned the same day.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

I'm guessing even Zenyatta will fail to come top 3 once every 10-15 times. To make this bet a winning proposition, horses like her have to come top 3 atleast 21 times in a row.

[herkhorse]

I'm curious as to how one would make a 200,000$ bet. Do you have 200,000 sitting in an ADW account, or 200,000 in cash that you hand to a teller?

[Habersham000]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

I'm curious as to how one would make a 200,000$ bet. Do you have 200,000 sitting in an ADW account, or 200,000 in cash that you hand to a teller?

Usually you do an account....probably vegas at a sports book....i don't think they would punch you a $200,000 ticket with 1MP if you gave them a duffle bag of money.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

They can put up to four $250 bets on one ticket.

at 1K a ticket - it wouldn't take but two minutes to punch 100K worth of tickets on a horse.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

They can put up to four $250 bets on one ticket.

at 1K a ticket - it wouldn't take but two minutes to punch 100K worth of tickets on a horse.

$200,000 in $100 bills is a stack about two feet high.

I suppose you can punch the tickets, but how do you count the money in a minute, or 5 minutes?

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

I'm guessing even Zenyatta will fail to come top 3 once every 10-15 times. To make this bet a winning proposition, horses like her have to come top 3 atleast 21 times in a row.

If she keeps racing, Zenyatta will find a day when she is just not up to competing at the level where she is placed by her connections. But isnt finding that day part of handicapping as is finding days where only catastrope will stop her?

I like a price just like any other handicapper but free money is free money. Yes, the guy "only" got 5% on his money but he got 5% tax free (unless he is dumb honest) in a matter of less than two minutes and there was never a time during that race where she wasnt going to be in the money.

In that particular race yesterday, what was the percentage of chance she was going to be in the money vs. the return? In that sense, it was a fine bet.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

I'm guessing even Zenyatta will fail to come top 3 once every 10-15 times. To make this bet a winning proposition, horses like her have to come top 3 atleast 21 times in a row.

Do you know why this is incorrect?

[ateamstupid]

Never thought I'd see the day where bridgejumping was defended on Derby Trail.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Never thought I'd see the day where bridgejumping was defended on Derby Trail.

no sh*t...shouldn't this just be combined with Fischers thread?

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Never thought I'd see the day where bridgejumping was defended on Derby Trail.

Instead of closing your mind to it altogehter and dismissing it as amatuerish, wouldnt it be better to understand the logic and statistics on a particular bet first?

[ELA]

Interesting how the disucssion includes "how much" for "how little" and the validity of the logic behind such a bet.

Eric

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Instead of closing your mind to it altogehter and dismissing it as amatuerish, wouldnt it be better to understand the logic and statistics on a particular bet first?

what statistics?