A Very Hard Game...... 4th at Bel

[infield_line]

[quote=infield_line]I would ask anyone to provide any handicapping rationale to have seen the 2 ahead of time in the 4th at BEL.....

asking what might have tipped me that the horse was live ahead of time...

so young horses, little to go on.... you get beat.

sorry I wasted your time Hockey....

[the_fat_man]

This is yet another way to get beat in the game: the perfect storm in terms of the trip. So, instead of asking whether the horse figured, you might want to approach it in terms of the trip it got.

1) sat a perfect inside trip behind a lone speed

2) incredibly PATIENT ride by a typically impatient jock --- the is the KEY--- Castellano doesn't ask this horse until the last possible second --- he goes after the speed but in hand, never asking the horse to move prematurely. what this does is effectively take the closers out of the race, as there is a minimum of moves --- the closers are thus left to do all the work; as such, Kapanga was best.

3) Kapanga not only lacks room and has to steady and go around horses early stretch, she also has to wait behind horses mid to late turn. These couple of seconds lost translate into a 2nd rather than a win.

In other words, take a field of horses, gave 60% or so (maybe higher) a perfect trip, and that horse can win.

And you thought the game involved skill? It does; it's jsut not about picking the best horse.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

This is yet another way to get beat in the game: the perfect storm in terms of the trip. So, instead of asking whether the horse figured, you might want to approach it in terms of the trip it got.

1) sat a perfect inside trip behind a lone speed

2) incredibly PATIENT ride by a typically impatient jock --- the is the KEY--- Castellano doesn't ask this horse until the last possible second --- he goes after the speed but in hand, never asking the horse to move prematurely. what this does is effectively take the closers out of the race, as there is a minimum of moves --- the closers are thus left to do all the work; as such, Kapanga was best.

3) Kapanga not only lacks room and has to steady and go around horses early stretch, she also has to wait behind horses mid to late turn. These couple of seconds lost translate into a 2nd rather than a win.

In other words, take a field of horses, gave 60% or so (maybe higher) a perfect trip, and that horse can win.

And you thought the game involved skill? It does; it's jsut not about picking the best horse.

Boy do I disagree with this.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Boy do I disagree with this.

Which part exactly?

[pick4]

2) incredibly PATIENT ride by a typically impatient jock --- the is the KEY--- Castellano doesn't ask this horse until the last possible second --- he goes after the speed but in hand, never asking the horse to move prematurely. what this does is effectively take the closers out of the race, as there is a minimum of moves --- the closers are thus left to do all the work; as such, Kapanga was best.

Castellano had no choice but to sit the trip. The lone speed was very cheap speed, and Belle's Home has first run on the lead.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Which part exactly?

As much as I respect your opinion, I saw the race completely differently. To me, the winner was the best horse, and ran the best race ( much as I would have preferred to see the place horse win ). The second finisher is a bit of a plodder. She hasn't broken particularly well, and has been sluggish early, in both of her races. She saved ground and had to alter course in the stretch which I just don't think means much. IMO the winner did more work than her early and beat her reasonably comfortably.

Now, considering the trainers, perhaps the second finisher will improve down the road, and the winner will go nowhere, but based on today's race I prefer the winner. I also thought she took sneaky money ( which is irrelevent....just thought I would mention it ).

[pick4]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

As much as I respect your opinion, I saw the race completely differently. To me, the winner was the best horse, and ran the best race ( much as I would have preferred to see the place horse win ). The second finisher is a bit of a plodder. She hasn't broken particularly well, and has been sluggish early, in both of her races. She saved ground and had to alter course in the stretch which I just don't think means much. IMO the winner did more work than her early and beat her reasonably comfortably.

Now, considering the trainers, perhaps the second finisher will improve down the road, and the winner will go nowhere, but based on today's race I prefer the winner. I also thought she took sneaky money ( which is irrelevent....just thought I would mention it ).

Kapanga had to tap on the brakes a few times. If she had a clean trip she wins. But her running style is a make one huge run and unless she gets lucky, she's bound to run into a bit of traffic problems. If she gets up and wins I hit the early pick four but it wasn't meant to be.

I think you guys are over analyzing the winners trip. She sat the garden trip, and had enough in reserve to hold off the hard charging Kapanga.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by pick4

I think you guys are over analyzing the winners trip. She sat the garden trip, and had enough in reserve to hold off the hard charging Kapanga.

If you have time, you might want to watch the race again, only this time focus exclusively on Castellano. Especially, on the turn. Notice how long it takes for him to go by a horse that he can put away just about at any point on the turn. He doesn't take the lead UNTIL AFTER they enter the stretch, sitting chilly all that time. (This is the way to ride.) By doing so, he holds the race together. He gives nothing else a chance to run, neither the chasers nor the closers, as he has the reserve necessary to finish. She didn't only get a garden trip because she happened to be inside chasing; she got a perfect trip because she was asked correctly.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

As much as I respect your opinion, I saw the race completely differently. To me, the winner was the best horse, and ran the best race ( much as I would have preferred to see the place horse win ). The second finisher is a bit of a plodder. She hasn't broken particularly well, and has been sluggish early, in both of her races. She saved ground and had to alter course in the stretch which I just don't think means much. IMO the winner did more work than her early and beat her reasonably comfortably.

Now, considering the trainers, perhaps the second finisher will improve down the road, and the winner will go nowhere, but based on today's race I prefer the winner. I also thought she took sneaky money ( which is irrelevent....just thought I would mention it ).

I think you're right about a lot of this. There's no reason why the 8 being behind horses on the turn and having to steady and come around can't be seen as a good trip. She's able to thus last move the field. And it's not like Venetian Causeway and Madame Bling are actually horses.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I think you're right about a lot of this. There's no reason why the 8 being behind horses on the turn and having to steady and come around can't be seen as a good trip. She's able to thus last move the field. And it's not like Venetian Causeway and Madame Bling are actually horses.

That's very much part of my thinking. She was clearly the best of that group exiting the prior race.....I'm just not sure what that really means. And, after today, I'm still unsure but I'm leaning towards mediocrity. But, Penna's pretty good, so she could improve. The other two? Good luck to them.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Boy do I disagree with this.

i love him