FOCUS RACE: 7/2-Churchill 8th

[asudevil]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Thank you Gioia...


A featured event singled out where a discussion can unfold as to the pace scenario, contenders merits/faults, prospective odds and wagering strategies, etc.. By bringing up one specific event that everyone focuses upon, we could ideally help many better understand handicapping stategies/approaches. This 8th at CD is an ideal opportunity because you've got horses of the same age, with a perfect smattering of running styles, in various form cycles, coming together at the most fair distance there is...


Hard to say... But I'll take the 'over'.

This should be done for almost every race at The Spa.....Brain storming sans the insults would help most of us be 's

Originally Posted by asudevil

This should be done for almost every race at The Spa.....Brain storming sans the insults would help most of us be 's

Not really.

[cowgirlintexas]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Not really.

I just gotta ask.. wtf is your avatar? A loaf of bread?

Originally Posted by cowgirlintexas

I just gotta ask.. wtf is your avatar? A loaf of bread?

Toast.

Kids in the Hall get the credit.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Toast.

Kids in the Hall get the credit.

i always liked that show.

[Cannon Shell]

I dont see how you can have a serious opinion about this race without seeing the prices. There is no standout, some pace but no confirmed front runners, a lot of maiden breakers and a few contenders with bad work patterns. I dont like the Darp at all. He was actually a weanling purchase that looks like a pinhook gone bad seeing who the owners are. He is off of a short layoff but it the 2 races before the layoff that concern me. He seemingly has lost his tactical speed which was a key element of his in his good races. even though he was overmatched in the Risen Star he never really had anything and his next race on the cutback was dull also. Although you never really know the whole story with works, he didnt work for a month after that race.Then didnt work again for 12 more days when he went a slow 1/2. Then he has another gap in his works till June 6th. He worked on regular 7 day intervals, albeit slow for a trainer that isnt afraid to let them work strong. His pokey 104 was followed up 5 days later with a slow 3 furlng work. He is really suspect in my eyes.

Fit for a Fight also has a suspect workout pattern, not showing a work since his last race almost 3 weeks prior to this race. Michele is a brand new trainer and new trainers rarely will not work horses unless they are not 100%. She did a good job getting the horse ready off of a brief series of steady works but I'm guessing that whatever made the horse miss 11 months is still there.

There isnt anything really wrong with Knock Out Cat but I am not convinced that the group that he beat is very good.

Dr. Nick wasnt very good last time. Looks a lot like one of those 2 yo in training horses that are fast but burn out early.

EZ Phone home is one of those overraced, cheap speed horses that I let beat me. I dont think he shakes loose on an easy lead which looks like the only way he will win at this level.

Niobrara raced 3 times in 30 days, caught a soft maiden 80 and IMO will regress off of his efforts. i wonder if the improvement was due to Blinks added, lasix on or dry tracks. Maybe a bit of each? I wouldnt play him unless he was really long. the fact that he has no work doesnt bother me as much as Fit fot a fight because he was raced so hard.


Coach Ryan had a perfecto last time in the short field. Obligatory improvement off the trainer change. may get a perfect trip once again. Amoss really wants to win the training title if that means anything.

War ruler was closer early with the addition of blinkers. Looks like some of the other in here. price matters.

I would throw Sinister underneath in exotics simply because he will be a long price and even though he isnt great he arguably fits well in here.


By the way i am only up handicapping this race because my tooth is killing me and I cant sleep, so dont give my thoughts any credence.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

By the way i am only up handicapping this race because my tooth is killing me and I cant sleep, so dont give my thoughts any credence.

See a dentist.

I soldiered through serious nerve pain in my tooth for months that would start every night when I layed down - because I didn't way to pay a dental bill. I finally gave in - and after a root canal or two - I was golden. Brand new.

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I dont see how you can have a serious opinion about this race without seeing the prices. There is no standout, some pace but no confirmed front runners, a lot of maiden breakers and a few contenders with bad work patterns. I dont like the Darp at all. He was actually a weanling purchase that looks like a pinhook gone bad seeing who the owners are. He is off of a short layoff but it the 2 races before the layoff that concern me. He seemingly has lost his tactical speed which was a key element of his in his good races. even though he was overmatched in the Risen Star he never really had anything and his next race on the cutback was dull also. Although you never really know the whole story with works, he didnt work for a month after that race.Then didnt work again for 12 more days when he went a slow 1/2. Then he has another gap in his works till June 6th. He worked on regular 7 day intervals, albeit slow for a trainer that isnt afraid to let them work strong. His pokey 104 was followed up 5 days later with a slow 3 furlng work. He is really suspect in my eyes.

Fit for a Fight also has a suspect workout pattern, not showing a work since his last race almost 3 weeks prior to this race. Michele is a brand new trainer and new trainers rarely will not work horses unless they are not 100%. She did a good job getting the horse ready off of a brief series of steady works but I'm guessing that whatever made the horse miss 11 months is still there.

There isnt anything really wrong with Knock Out Cat but I am not convinced that the group that he beat is very good.

Dr. Nick wasnt very good last time. Looks a lot like one of those 2 yo in training horses that are fast but burn out early.

EZ Phone home is one of those overraced, cheap speed horses that I let beat me. I dont think he shakes loose on an easy lead which looks like the only way he will win at this level.

Niobrara raced 3 times in 30 days, caught a soft maiden 80 and IMO will regress off of his efforts. i wonder if the improvement was due to Blinks added, lasix on or dry tracks. Maybe a bit of each? I wouldnt play him unless he was really long. the fact that he has no work doesnt bother me as much as Fit fot a fight because he was raced so hard.


Coach Ryan had a perfecto last time in the short field. Obligatory improvement off the trainer change. may get a perfect trip once again. Amoss really wants to win the training title if that means anything.

War ruler was closer early with the addition of blinkers. Looks like some of the other in here. price matters.

I would throw Sinister underneath in exotics simply because he will be a long price and even though he isnt great he arguably fits well in here.


By the way i am only up handicapping this race because my tooth is killing me and I cant sleep, so dont give my thoughts any credence.

If your not already on an antibiotic for the tooth. Send me your info and a pharmacy number and I'll call it in for you. Tooth pain is the worst....

Hooves had surgery via the phone last week it worked out fine. 3 kids is plenty don't you think!!

[Rudeboyelvis]

9 Fit for a Fight - on the 30 pt move up off the layoff/barn change - 3 startilingly impressive works and the strong effort 6/11 might signal a bounce to some, but he can also easily lay over this bunch - Best Value
10 The Darp - looks to me as the most logical, I don't mind the outside going 7/8ths, in fact prefer it. His two stakes efforts were commendable performances and I'll gladly toss the poly try. - Most Likely
8 Siena Canyon - Has the win going the distance over the track through some pretty honest fractions in MSW victory
5 EZ Phone Home - Zayat hanger rounds out the exotics.

[TheSpyder]

Very on topic...I'm sitting here after having a tooth pulled today. Not a big deal but the Doctor prescribed 20 pills of Vicodin. Now I would not normally even take them, but I have no plans for the day so I figure why not.

well...

Kicking back with a monster buzz..I think I need to go to rehab cause I like these pills.

anyway..

As far as the race goes, I see it this way:

Too much early speed will make way from off the pace.

1. Knock Out Cat - Don't think he was even asked until he was swung out from rail and should like extra distance
2. The Carp...opps Darp - In spot he should handle although I hear what Chuck said about time off and work pattern
3. Coach Ryan - Impressive last

Originally Posted by docicu3

If your not already on an antibiotic for the tooth. Send me your info and a pharmacy number and I'll call it in for you. Tooth pain is the worst....

Hooves had surgery via the phone last week it worked out fine. 3 kids is plenty don't you think!!