Big Time Pedigree (Half to Indian Blessing!)

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

i thought zaftigs msw win at gs was a key race..i was correct......

I would have to look at the subsequent efforts from the other horses in the race. Which horses in the race ran significantly better in their NEXT start?

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I would have to look at the subsequent efforts from the other horses in the race. Which horses in the race ran significantly better in their NEXT start?

5 next out winners maybee 6

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

5 next out winners maybee 6

How much better did they run in their following starts? Were any of the wins on turf? In maiden claiming races? On polytrack? Sloppy tracks? Cheaper tracks?

[cmorioles]

2nd: finished second next out at 3 to 5.
3rd: finished second next out at 3 to 1.
4th: won next out at 2 to 1.
5th: 4th next out at 10 to 1.
6th: 4th next out at 7 to 5.
7th: won next out at even money.
8th: won (on turf) next out at 17 to 1.
9th: won (on polytrack) next out at 7 to 1.
10th: 6th next out at 5 to 1.
11th: yet to return.

So, are you saying that a couple horses winning on another surface somehow indicates this was a key race? The horses that ran back on dirt pretty much sucked.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

2nd: finished second next out at 3 to 5.
3rd: finished second next out at 3 to 1.
4th: won next out at 2 to 1.
5th: 4th next out at 10 to 1.
6th: 4th next out at 7 to 5.
7th: won next out at even money.
8th: won (on turf) next out at 17 to 1.
9th: won (on polytrack) next out at 7 to 1.
10th: 6th next out at 5 to 1.
11th: yet to return.

So, are you saying that a couple horses winning on another surface somehow indicates this was a key race? The horses that ran back on dirt pretty much sucked.

you bet ..4 next out winners and 2 seconds....

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

you bet ..4 next out winners and 2 seconds....

Even big proponents of the key race theory would have a hard time backing that one. The horses on dirt underperformed.

Now, if you are advocating betting a horse off one poor dirt race first time on turf or polytrack merely because of who won, more power to you.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

well first of all there was some good breeding in the race..now zaftig destroyed them.. but i knew that they, the others in the race had some tallent..im not bing a dick... this time ..but you show me a race where there are 4 next out winners and 2 seconds regardless of surface..and ill take that all day.as a key race......

[parsixfarms]

Whether we call them potential "key races" or not, don't we always have to evaluate the relative strengths of a particular race.

For example, today's third race at Belmont was about as ugly a $35,000 claiming race as you can get; I'd be inclined to throw everything out the next time these horses run.

By contrast, the second race on Belmont Stakes Day looked to be a pretty strong maiden heat. I'd be inclined to upgrade horses coming out of that race when they run back. And we have to make these judgments before the entire field runs back.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The Sales Topper from Fasig-Tipton Feb debuts at Arlington this weekend going 4.5 furlongs for Harty.

Desert Party ($2.5 million buy) beat out Munnings ($1.7 million) and Mr. Mistoffelees ($1.5 million) for that honor.

By Street Cry out of a Tabasco Cat mare - 4.5f on polytrack doesn't seem like the type of situation you'd see a pedigree like that debut at.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The Sales Topper from Fasig-Tipton Feb debuts at Arlington this weekend going 4.5 furlongs for Harty.

Desert Party ($2.5 million buy) beat out Munnings ($1.7 million) and Mr. Mistoffelees ($1.5 million) for that honor.

By Street Cry out of a Tabasco Cat mare - 4.5f on polytrack doesn't seem like the type of situation you'd see a pedigree like that debut at.

owner/trainer?

[10 pnt move up]

when there is no reason why a horse runs poorly I blame the rider...this horse is the goods ( :

if you did not bet against that horse today, and play HP seriously, then maybe one should consider playing a different game?

Reading the article closely I thought Bafferts comments were a bit telling, bringing up real quite and running longer.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

owner/trainer?

Maktoums own and Harty trains.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

By Street Cry out of a Tabasco Cat mare - 4.5f on polytrack doesn't seem like the type of situation you'd see a pedigree like that debut at.

True, and the second choice on the ML in that race is by Action This Day, and the third choice is out of a Strike the Gold mare. None of those pedigrees exactly scream 4.5f to me.
I haven't really looked at the Sunday card much yet, but at first glance that race seems tough.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by miraja2

True, and the second choice on the ML in that race is by Action This Day, and the third choice is out of a Strike the Gold mare. None of those pedigrees exactly scream 4.5f to me.
I haven't really looked at the Sunday card much yet, but at first glance that race seems tough.

Weren't both Street Cry and Tabasco Cat precocious 2yos? Street Cry couldn't have run further than 5.5f in his debut (which he won).

[Scav]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The Sales Topper from Fasig-Tipton Feb debuts at Arlington this weekend going 4.5 furlongs for Harty.

Desert Party ($2.5 million buy) beat out Munnings ($1.7 million) and Mr. Mistoffelees ($1.5 million) for that honor.

By Street Cry out of a Tabasco Cat mare - 4.5f on polytrack doesn't seem like the type of situation you'd see a pedigree like that debut at.

Whoa...what a debut. Harty actually made an appearance, at least it look like him in the winner's circle

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by Scav

Whoa...what a debut.

explain ?
i did not see it