Big Time Pedigree (Half to Indian Blessing!)

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

not sure if you're joking around, but it could turn out to be a key race.
several of the others were flying along and looked sharp.

I honestly think predicting races will be key races is about as laughably a stupid concept as I have ever heard in racing.

Key races, by their very nature, can't be uncovered until horses run back. And, furthermore, a true key race is NOT ( necessarily ) one where two or more horses win their following starts.

But, hey, people should believe what they want to believe.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I honestly think predicting races will be key races is about as laughably a stupid concept as I have ever heard in racing.

Key races, by their very nature, can't be uncovered until horses run back. And, furthermore, a true key race is NOT ( necessarily ) one where two or more horses win their following starts.

But, hey, people should believe what they want to believe.

Supposed "key" races usually have a lot more to do with where the trainers spot the horses next out. I think these days, the only real edge is if you think a race is getting a speed figure that comes back lower than the horses are capable of running, for whatever reason.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Supposed "key" races usually have a lot more to do with where the trainers spot the horses next out. I think these days, the only real edge is if you think a race is getting a speed figure that comes back lower than the horses are capable of running, for whatever reason.

Right, there are so many factors involved, and as usual, people oversimplify them, mostly because they're lazy, and miss out on what's really good ( while falling prey to what is bad ).

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I honestly think predicting races will be key races is about as laughably a stupid concept as I have ever heard in racing.

Key races, by their very nature, can't be uncovered until horses run back. And, furthermore, a true key race is NOT ( necessarily ) one where two or more horses win their following starts.

But, hey, people should believe what they want to believe.

of course, did someone call it a key race beforehand?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

of course, did someone call it a key race beforehand?

Not if you use the ignore button correctly.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

i thought zaftigs msw win at gs was a key race..i was correct......

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

i thought zaftigs msw win at gs was a key race..i was correct......

Garden State is still open? I thought it was turned into a shopping center.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Garden State is still open? I thought it was turned into a shopping center.

gulf stream..

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

i thought zaftigs msw win at gs was a key race..i was correct......

I would have to look at the subsequent efforts from the other horses in the race. Which horses in the race ran significantly better in their NEXT start?

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I would have to look at the subsequent efforts from the other horses in the race. Which horses in the race ran significantly better in their NEXT start?

5 next out winners maybee 6

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

5 next out winners maybee 6

How much better did they run in their following starts? Were any of the wins on turf? In maiden claiming races? On polytrack? Sloppy tracks? Cheaper tracks?

[cmorioles]

2nd: finished second next out at 3 to 5.
3rd: finished second next out at 3 to 1.
4th: won next out at 2 to 1.
5th: 4th next out at 10 to 1.
6th: 4th next out at 7 to 5.
7th: won next out at even money.
8th: won (on turf) next out at 17 to 1.
9th: won (on polytrack) next out at 7 to 1.
10th: 6th next out at 5 to 1.
11th: yet to return.

So, are you saying that a couple horses winning on another surface somehow indicates this was a key race? The horses that ran back on dirt pretty much sucked.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

2nd: finished second next out at 3 to 5.
3rd: finished second next out at 3 to 1.
4th: won next out at 2 to 1.
5th: 4th next out at 10 to 1.
6th: 4th next out at 7 to 5.
7th: won next out at even money.
8th: won (on turf) next out at 17 to 1.
9th: won (on polytrack) next out at 7 to 1.
10th: 6th next out at 5 to 1.
11th: yet to return.

So, are you saying that a couple horses winning on another surface somehow indicates this was a key race? The horses that ran back on dirt pretty much sucked.

you bet ..4 next out winners and 2 seconds....

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Not if you use the ignore button correctly.

oh, now i see where that came from. i guess my eye has developed a built-in auto-ignore because i had passed right over that one.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Not if you use the ignore button correctly.

zing!