My Bets for Belmont.......Please Help

[pick4]

Originally Posted by RollerDoc

I promise not to start another thread for a while, but I wanted to share the bets I was planning to make for tomorrow. Please tell me why this is either a good selection of bets or bad and any basic mistakes that I am making while I can still correct it.

My budget is $300.00

My picks for now are:

$170.00 – Big Brown to Win

Exacta $20 Big Brown –Denis Of Cork

Trifecta $6 Big Brown – Denis Of Cork – Tale Of Ekati

Across The Board $8 Macho Again
Across The Board $6 Ichabod Crane
Across The Board $10 Casino Drive

Total 300.00

I'm sure I will get hazed pretty bad for doing this but go ahead and fire away. I honestly would appreciate the critique and what you might do different. FYI...I do not want to move off of making Big Brown #1 pick.

$300 is nothing to sneeze at. Why do you propose making a wagers that you posted without having the courage of your convictions?

[RollerDoc]

Originally Posted by pick4

$300 is nothing to sneeze at. Why do you propose making a wagers that you posted without having the courage of your convictions?

I'm too new at this to have courage of my convictions when it comes to betting. All I know is I am up almost 540.00 from the first two TC races by betting BB. So even if I lost all 300.00 which I doubt, I'm still up for the year and money left over for the BCC. Obviously I would love to win more $$$

So now after most posters advice, I plan to back off and play some BB Exactas, one trifecta and possibly an across the board.

[hockey2315]

With Casino Drive out the race is pretty much unplayable - save your money.

[Danzig]

i don't understand why casino drive got so much attention to begin with. and i don't think he is/was the only horse that could give big brown a fit today. by the same token, i don't see why big brown couldn't have defeated him by the same distance he's been beating his other 'competition'.

obviously if big brown runs his race, and the others who have faced him previously don't step up, it's a done deal. but they still have to run the thing....

smarty also won his derby and preakness (and the arkansas derby) in convincing fashion. that counted for nothing on belmont day. the same may happen today. or big brown might become #12.

i just threw up in my mouth a little.

[RollerDoc]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i don't understand why casino drive got so much attention to begin with. and i don't think he is/was the only horse that could give big brown a fit today. by the same token, i don't see why big brown couldn't have defeated him by the same distance he's been beating his other 'competition'.

obviously if big brown runs his race, and the others who have faced him previously don't step up, it's a done deal. but they still have to run the thing....

smarty also won his derby and preakness (and the arkansas derby) in convincing fashion. that counted for nothing on belmont day. the same may happen today. or big brown might become #12.

i just threw up in my mouth a little.

You bring up an interesting topic that I didn't want to start a new thread with.

In comparing Smarty Jones to Big Brown, I'm not talking about talent wise, but going into The Belmont in 2004 as compared to today. I think Big Brown is a better bet today than Smarty was. For one, Big Brown's competitors seem to be less of a field than Smarty's. Although i like Denis Of Cork too.

I truly feel the fact that Kent D having gone through his mistake of 10 years ago missing the triple crown, he has learned heavily from that. Plus in this particular race, I like him starting from the 1 post which will make it a tad easier for the all important early break. I'd love to see Big Brown sit back in this Belmont just Like Alex did in 2005 and then turned it on when the others are pooped out.