Big Brown has Quarter Crack

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

If true, it's hard to imagine the folks at Three Chimney's would be okay with him running with some issues. Unless its extremely minor... but even then... we're talking about a lot of $.

You would think this would decrease his
value. It should decrease his value with
all the measures they have taken to keep
him sound.

Totally messed up. This illustrates perfectly
how screwed up the thoroughbred market
is. Totally short term thinking.

Pile o crud thinking.

[Strategic Mission]

Originally Posted by pgardn

You would think this would decrease his
value. It should decrease his value with
all the measures they have taken to keep
him sound.

Totally messed up. This illustrates perfectly
how screwed up the thoroughbred market
is. Totally short term thinking.

Pile o crud thinking.

I doubt it will decrease his value. If he were to take a few months off and then come back and lose then his value would plummet. They will retire him and he will get his $100K from all the people that don't care about soundness but are interested in trying to get the next big brown.

Originally Posted by Strategic Mission

I doubt it will decrease his value. If he were to take a few months off and then come back and lose then his value would plummet. They will retire him and he will get his $100K from all the people that don't care about soundness but are interested in trying to get the next big brown.

This is exactly my point.
It should decrease his value.

The horse had quarter cracks
before the Derby. It is hurry
up and get there insanity.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by pgardn

This is exactly my point.
It should decrease his value.

The horse had quarter cracks
before the Derby. It is hurry
up and get there insanity.

i don't understand why anyone thinks he is so valuable a prospect. he's by boundary for crying out loud. quick, name 5 good boundaries, without looking up his progeny records...besides big brown of course. i can think of ONE, pomeroy.

also, it's a rotten crop, and he just happens to be a bit faster than the other slow horses.
eight belles was thought by many to not be a derby horse, wouldn't be able to get 10f, and she ran closer to big brown than any of his other competition ever had.

i can't believe they're going nuts over this horse, or that he's worth 100k.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i don't understand why anyone thinks he is so valuable a prospect. he's by boundary for crying out loud. quick, name 5 good boundaries, without looking up his progeny records...besides big brown of course. i can think of ONE, pomeroy.

also, it's a rotten crop, and he just happens to be a bit faster than the other slow horses.
eight belles was thought by many to not be a derby horse, wouldn't be able to get 10f, and she ran closer to big brown than any of his other competition ever had.

i can't believe they're going nuts over this horse, or that he's worth 100k.

I agree 100%. But the problem is the breeding business appears to have serious short-term memory. Four years down the road, if Big Brown is a flop at stud (which he almost certainly will be), the douchebag breeders will be so occupied with clamoring for the latest Derby winner, they'll forget all about how much they inflated Big Brown's prospects. Plus, as long as people keep paying exorbitant amounts for yearlings and two-year-olds, the breeders will be heartened to keep overvaluing horses.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I agree 100%. But the problem is the breeding business appears to have serious short-term memory. Four years down the road, if Big Brown is a flop at stud (which he almost certainly will be), the douchebag breeders will be so occupied with clamoring for the latest Derby winner, they'll forget all about how much they inflated Big Brown's prospects. Plus, as long as people keep paying exorbitant amounts for yearlings and two-year-olds, the breeders will be heartened to keep overvaluing horses.

What people seem to forget is that racetrack success doesnt always translate into stallion success. It is one of the things that the 'medication is ruining the breed' types seem to forget. Just look at the 70's. Secretariat, Affirmed, and Spectacular Bid who all rank in the top 20 all time (maybe better) all were disappointments at stud as were Alysheba, Easy Goer (though he didnt get much of a chance), Spend a Buck and Devils Bag in the 80's and Skip Away and Formal Gold among others in the 90's. None ever sired a horse close to themselves. Medication had nothing to do with it either. Most stallions are failures, plain and simple. The real problems started when people started to pay top dollar to breed to unproven stallions versus proven ones. By paying big bucks for a few years before we know what they got, you are allowing the breeders to pay huge money and escape with their hides. Surely Three Chimneys thinks that they will have enough support at a high level to pay the money they did for BB but I am skeptical of what people will feel like in a year from now.

[Danzig]

a lot of people are going after first year stallions, looking to get that instant bang for their buck. get in, get out, make some money before the stallion proves to be in the 90% of stallions who won't make it, rather than in the 10% that do. a lot of established sires are having a hard time getting a full book. makes no sense, but everyone is looking for a show horse, not a race horse.

i'm thinking big brown will turn out like real quiet or monarchos.

big brown is case clays first big buy since taking over as president of three chimneys. i think ieah got the better end of this deal by a mile.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

What people seem to forget is that racetrack success doesnt always translate into stallion success. It is one of the things that the 'medication is ruining the breed' types seem to forget. Just look at the 70's. Secretariat, Affirmed, and Spectacular Bid who all rank in the top 20 all time (maybe better) all were disappointments at stud .

I'm tired of hearing this. Secretariat was a darn good stallion; he sired 1) a Horse of the Year (Lady's Secret) 2) a Preakness/Belmont winner (Risen Star) 3) a Travers/Hopeful/Vosburg winner (General Assembly), 4) a Melbourne Cup winner (Kingston Rule), plus a good number of graded/group winners. As this recital indicates, Big Red was a stamina sire, however during his early stud career Claibourne and partners mated him as though he were a typical Bold Ruler son, with stamina mares. Only after his first 2yos got to the track did they realize their mistake and start to give him mares with a bit more speed (like Great Lady M.).

Affirmed was never expected to excell at stud by the Blood Grass elite breeders; he was by Exclusive Native, who was okay but not top drawer, while the damside was distinctly blue-collar. He was never given the top level mares, yet he still sired 1) a multiple US champion (Flawlessly), 2) a Canadian Triple Crown winner (Peteski), 3) classic winners (Trusted Partner, Bint Pasha), and numerous group/graded winners, including everyone's favorite, The Tin Dude. He, too, tended to produce horses who didn't excell at 2 on dirt tracks - most were better at 3 or older and on turf. That was a truly strange breeding result - a horse who never ran on turf and whose parents and grandparents never ran on turf should become an excellent sire of turf horses. Who can figure that one out?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Just look at the 70's. Secretariat, Affirmed, and Spectacular Bid who all rank in the top 20 all time (maybe better) all were disappointments at stud as were Alysheba, Easy Goer (though he didnt get much of a chance), Spend a Buck and Devils Bag in the 80's and Skip Away and Formal Gold among others in the 90's.

None of those nine great horses where really brilliant sprinter/miler types with sharp early speed except for perhaps Spend A Buck and Devil's Bag.

Spend A Buck has managed to sire four different multiple Grade 1 winning millionaires .. all of which from South American dams. They being Pico Central, Einstein, Antespend, and Hard Buck.

While Devils Bag wasn' a bad sire either - he was obviously a big disappointment - but his much lesser 8-year younger full brother Saint Ballado, who only sold for five figures as a yearling, has been a smashing success at stud.

Brilliant speed seems to be clearly the #1 stallion making quality.