Cork him

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by The Bid

Looking at DC's record in big races if I were the owner I may be thinking about changing a little more than the rider.

Warren can always send Denis to Dutrow after the Belmont; it'd be just like how he transferred Saint Liam from a KY trainer to Dutrow. After all, after the Belmont, Dutrow will probably be looking for a "second half" 3YO.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The biggest - and possibly only mistake that has been made with DoC from a management standpoint was not running him in the Preakness.

Skipping the Rebel for a choice to run later in either the ILL Derby (a 500K race where everyone but DOC was elidgible for an n2x) or Wood allowed DoC to come into the TC series fresh and made him the most viable candidate to run in all three races.

He would have almost certainly finished 2nd in the Preakness - possibly even won the race ... after all - the pace was fast enough and the figure was just a 100. It would have been a great setup for him. Coming back in 3 weeks for the Belmont wouldn't have been a problem either.

DoC still has a shot in the Belmont. He is going to need some 3 way sparring between BB, CD, and Tale of Ekati - the same way Smarty Jones got it from Rock Hard Ten and Eddington - and he's going to have to play the Birdstone role of making the last run and mopping up the survior of the real battle.

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The biggest - and possibly only mistake that has been made with DoC from a management standpoint was not running him in the Preakness.

Skipping the Rebel for a choice to run later in either the ILL Derby (a 500K race where everyone but DOC was elidgible for an n2x) or Wood allowed DoC to come into the TC series fresh and made him the most viable candidate to run in all three races.

He would have almost certainly finished 2nd in the Preakness - possibly even won the race ... after all - the pace was fast enough and the figure was just a 100. It would have been a great setup for him. Coming back in 3 weeks for the Belmont wouldn't have been a problem either.

DoC still has a shot in the Belmont. He is going to need some 3 way sparring between BB, CD, and Tale of Ekati - the same way Smarty Jones got it from Rock Hard Ten and Eddington - and he's going to have to play the Birdstone role of making the last run and mopping up the survior of the real battle.

This is kinda funny

[jms62]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He would have almost certainly finished 2nd in the Preakness - possibly even won the race ... after all - the pace was fast enough and the figure was just a 100. It would have been a great setup for him. Coming back in 3 weeks for the Belmont wouldn't have been a problem either.

Possibly won ? Come on. Beyer speed figures won't do BB justice because he is dominating other horses by so much that he is wrapped up long before the race is complete. Beyers are based upon a horse going all out the entire way...

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by jms62

Beyer speed figures won't do BB justice because he is dominating other horses by so much that he is wrapped up long before the race is complete. Beyers are based upon a horse going all out the entire way...

I have news for you - the two highest Beyers this year Commentator (119) and Monterry Jazz (118) were both earned by horses who won under FAR, FAR MORE restraint than Big Brown ever was in the Preakness.

People still believe that horses could run "much faster" if they were "all out" instead of taken in hand late?

It's mind numbing stupidity really. Watch enough races and find out for yourself. It's the mentality of people who don't bet.

Officer won every single race in his career while restrained throughout - not cut loose mid-way on the turn like Big Brown was.

When he got a test finally in the BC Juvie he was bet to an absurd 1/2 favortisim because "he could have run so much faster" - he was ridden hard in the Juvie and was off the board. One example, but there are hundreds of others.

[MisterB]

Another reason why beyers are not a good judge of class.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by MisterB

Another reason why beyers are not a good judge of class.

Huh?

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Huh?

BB's mental and physical attributes out weigh any number a human puts on him. KD had this horse in a full Nelson most of the way, and BB acted just fine, then he put the peddle down just enough to get clear, and take his foot off the gas, and save some fuel for next time.

Who cares what Beyer he got, he was flawless.

I guess when you don't bounce off your top, it's called a reversal. We have names for everything in this sport.

[Bobby Fischer]

Brown couldn't have run very much faster once he made his move. Maybe a fraction of a second. Maybe.
That is the misconception concerning wrapped up horses and final times.

Where he could have bettred his time was during the begining and middle of the race.
If there are blazing fractions set, and another threatening opponent the final time can be faster.

The other option would be to leave the slow horses behind on the backstretch and go out and race the clock on his own.

Horses don't often run away from the group as in Secretariat's Belmont. Today Secretariat would have been wrapped up on the backstretch and raced with the group of horses. He wouldn't have run his amazing final time.

A beyer from the preakness doesn't measure the limits of Big Brown's ability unless you believe that he couldn't have gone any faster.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I have news for you - the two highest Beyers this year Commentator (119) and Monterry Jazz (118) were both earned by horses who won under FAR, FAR MORE restraint than Big Brown ever was in the Preakness.

People still believe that horses could run "much faster" if they were "all out" instead of taken in hand late?

It's mind numbing stupidity really. Watch enough races and find out for yourself. It's the mentality of people who don't bet.

Officer won every single race in his career while restrained throughout - not cut loose mid-way on the turn like Big Brown was.

When he got a test finally in the BC Juvie he was bet to an absurd 1/2 favortisim because "he could have run so much faster" - he was ridden hard in the Juvie and was off the board. One example, but there are hundreds of others.

I'm not gonna argue one way or another how much faster Big Brown could've run in the Preakness, but there's no way Denis of Cork would've beaten him.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

DoC would have got a setup - and had he managed to slice his way through the pack - while unlikely, who's to say he couldn't run a mediocre number like a 102 or 103?

All the early race riding while up on a solid pace had a lot more to do with BB not running a big number than the fact that he was taken in hand through the final furlong.

It gets a little annoying when people act like that means the horse could have run several lengths faster.

I've never believed riding with restraint makes it any easier on the horse either.

Here is a clip of Milkom winning the Grade 1 Man O' War at 8/1 while under a full nelson. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=04BdGqmOB6w

Not only did Stevens never move on him - but he actually fought with him and had him under strong restraint for most of the race. Millkom came out of the race with a career ending injury.

[MisterB]

Drugs,
You think KD only had a firm hand on him the last furlong??

What about whem Prado tried to close the door on him, and he took back, and went to the 4-5 path to avoid trouble.

[Round Pen]

it has really been hard for me to make a post in this thread because I have been laughing to Hard.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I'm not gonna argue one way or another how much faster Big Brown could've run in the Preakness, but there's no way Denis of Cork would've beaten him.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rMoxifieuoI

im pretty sure he could have run a faster race.. but dennis of cork will look like these also rans on belmont day..no matter who is on him imo..

kents commnents are pretty telling....

[Strategic Mission]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Warren can always send Denis to Dutrow after the Belmont; it'd be just like how he transferred Saint Liam from a KY trainer to Dutrow. After all, after the Belmont, Dutrow will probably be looking for a "second half" 3YO.

Tony Reinstedler and his assistant Leslie did a great job with Saint Liam. The horse was going to win as a 4yr old if he stayed with Reinstedler or left for Dutrow. Top horses win wherever they go.

Warren is the one who screwed up with Denis of Cork, not David Carroll. But considering he took Saint Liam away from Reinstedler it wouldn't surprise me if they gave Denis of Cork to Dutrow.

Dutrow relies on steroids much more than Carroll or Reinstedler and I get the feeling that is what allows Dutrow horses to make a huge jump up.

What is funny is how Dutrow says he doesn't know if steroids work but he keeps giving them the 15th of every month.

Doesn't matter. Steroids will be gone within the year.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Strategic Mission

Tony Reinstedler and his assistant Leslie did a great job with Saint Liam. The horse was going to win as a 4yr old if he stayed with Reinstedler or left for Dutrow. Top horses win wherever they go.

Warren is the one who screwed up with Denis of Cork, not David Carroll. But considering he took Saint Liam away from Reinstedler it wouldn't surprise me if they gave Denis of Cork to Dutrow.

Dutrow relies on steroids much more than Carroll or Reinstedler and I get the feeling that is what allows Dutrow horses to make a huge jump up.

What is funny is how Dutrow says he doesn't know if steroids work but he keeps giving them the 15th of every month.

Doesn't matter. Steroids will be gone within the year.

Of course they do. That's why they're top horses, right?

[Strategic Mission]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Of course they do. That's why they're top horses, right?

Yes and no. It is hard to argue with the success Dutrow has had win Kip Deville and a horse like Saint Liam.

My skepticism of Dutrow though was always how much he moved up average horses say in the 9th on a typical Wednesday at Belmont. There were quite a few that came from decent barns that he moved up considerably. I just don't understand what a trainer can do to get an average horse to run much faster. I am assuming the steroids he uses must have something to do with it. There really just are not that many things that are different from trainer to trainer.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Strategic Mission

I am assuming the steroids he uses must have something to do with it. There really just are not that many things that are different from trainer to trainer.

About 70% of horses tested positive for steroids in a HUGE blind sample taken in PA a few years ago - about 90% trainers use steroids - you really think that is Dutrow's edge? Something that is used by almost everyone?

[slotdirt]

PA is one of the few states where steroid regulations have now gone into effect.

[Strategic Mission]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

About 70% of horses tested positive for steroids in a HUGE blind sample taken in PA a few years ago - about 90% trainers use steroids - you really think that is Dutrow's edge? Something that is used by almost everyone?

Do they all use it as often as 1x a month?