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Originally Posted by anonymous
First, let me say that I am not new to the board. I have been on DT for over three years, but Steve let me register to offer this post. I am not worried about admitting to being a dope, but I have family members who are on the board that I would rather not know the whole story.
I am not a novice relatively speaking. I have capped at least one or more cards almost every day for three years, and place some kind of bets at least 6 days a week. I have read everything I can find on handicapping, Quinn, Brohammer, Mitchell, Davidowitz, Beyer.. you name it I've probably read it. I use a high quality par and pace time program.... a serious immersion in the sport. Ironically, my love of reading about capping got me into this situation.
Like many of you, I established an offshore account both for the rebate and to deal with the ongoing mess in the online wagering environment. I ended up getting the "Original 2008 Triple Crown Betting Guide" and in there was a new book by Gasper "Gasmen" Moshera, a semi-famous NY trainer and a real person. I call HeritageHouseBooks.com to place an order and my first clue occurs...."hello..." "is this Heritage House Books?", "hold on.." I am transferred to a male who takes my order but then starts to make conversation... "how often to you play, how much do you bet, do you make money..?" Not enough was the answer. All very friendly.
He proceeds to tell me that he is part of a syndicate of people who pay for inside information, tips on live horses. Says they have had over $750,000 in winnings over the last year, talking about blockbuster exacta's an tri's and double digit horses. How much I ask... "$5,000 a year" Whoa, you've got to be kidding..... "tell you what, I'll let you in for three months to give it a try for (I'd rather not say, but it was enough to cover my play for a good while)
"After three months, you can walk away, but you'll be able to cover the fee and be making money.... I know you like the action but you need to make money to stay for the long term?" True enough...and I bite.
So, call on Thursday through Sunday between 10 and 12 and I'll give you the plays. They are typically... W/P horse X , exacta box X with Y and Z. OK fine, but I look at these plays and they are either chalk or obvious contenders that any of us would choose, or they are hopeless longshots who guess what... are hopeless longshots. Like not even a glimmer that these runners were well meant. So after 10 days where not a single one of his plays hit, it dawns on me that when someone calls, he just opens the card picks one chalk plus throws darts on the other picks.
It becomes clear that the math does not ever ad up, that the odds of a run of long price winners that it would take at this rate to cover the nut plus the losses... like approaches infinity... So we talk and he gets hostile, claims I just need to stick it out, and we have a parting of the ways.
So why do I share this story, and yes feel free to agree with my assessment that I was a complete dumbass? I do so because I suspect that others are receiving these come on's (now that my name is out there as "live", I am getting cards and letters and calls from other touts, one claiming he represents Angel Cordera's former jockey agent, all promising live winners).
I also would guess that there are others like me who have made a real commitment to be successful, who love the sport, but who despite runs of success are having trouble maintaining a positive ROI. I was frustrated and vulnerable to a story that was too good to be true. Like the person who claims they can predict stock prices... if true, why would they tell anyone?
So, more money than sense, older and wiser, no shortcuts in life and definitely not in handicapping.
Finally I want to thank Steve and everyone on Derby Trail for the online and real-life commraderie. and hope this story prevents anyone else from getting sucked in.
anonymous
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05-08-2008, 04:18 AM
Hybrid Mode
