Big Brown Beyer 109

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by alysheba4

.....wow, this horse HAS PAID WORKOUTS...... he in my opinoin a better horse than streat sense.......

In case anyone wonders, Big Brown's Derby was not rated higher than his super impressive Fla Derby as his PF there was -89.

[sumitas]

it's beyond the numbers that i wonder about

[alysheba4]

did you see that big brown didnt even look like he ran a race as he came back to get unsaddled? he is a freak.

[AlexP]

Alright Sniper, thanks. I'm still trying to figure out how Beyers are calculated and learn more about them (I mean, I know what's good, bad, etc, but how they're figured out).

[Better Than Honour]

Originally Posted by alysheba4

did you see that big brown didnt even look like he ran a race as he came back to get unsaddled? he is a freak.

He was tired. Not exhausted, but tired. A freak would be a horse throwing up a sub 2:00 time with a 115 beyer. He is actually just very typical of most derby winners. Nothing more. He just hasn't had to beat much. They all eventually get tested unless they are retired and you will soon see he is much more like a Hard Spun or Street Sense than a Secretariat. Hopefully he will hang around but somebody like Curlin or even the late developing Harlem Rocker will give us a real picture of him. Those feet will eventually get him if he goes the 3 races in 5 weeks. That is just the reality of it.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Better Than Honour

He was tired. Not exhausted, but tired. A freak would be a horse throwing up a sub 2:00 time with a 115 beyer. He is actually just very typical of most derby winners. Nothing more. He just hasn't had to beat much....

Just your typical undefeated Derby winner coming from the 20 post to win by 4+ lengths in his 4th lifetime start.

--Dunbar

[Better Than Honour]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Just your typical undefeated Derby winner coming from the 20 post to win by 4+ lengths in his 4th lifetime start.

--Dunbar

That doesn't make him a freak. Just a very good horse. He is probably comparable to Street Sense or Hard Spun, which is great, but he is no freak. Ghostzapper was a freak. This horse has a long way to go.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Better Than Honour

That doesn't make him a freak. Just a very good horse. He is probably comparable to Street Sense or Hard Spun, which is great, but he is no freak. Ghostzapper was a freak. This horse has a long way to go.

It's a hell of a start to becoming a freak. When and if he beats a Curlin with a 125 BSF will confirm him a Freak

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Better Than Honour

That doesn't make him a freak. Just a very good horse. He is probably comparable to Street Sense or Hard Spun, which is great, but he is no freak. Ghostzapper was a freak. This horse has a long way to go.

I am a huge HardSpun fan and also have a good liking to Street Sense...I am not so sure Street Sense would have won this derby from the 20 post. No shot Hard Spun would had won either from the 20 either.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I am a huge HardSpun fan and also have a good liking to Street Sense...I am not so sure Street Sense would have won this derby from the 20 post. No shot Hard Spun would had won either from the 20 either.

Really? I think it would have hindered him less than anybody. Borel could have just done the same move he did with Denis of Cork early and had him in the same position without losing more than a length.

[fantini33]

Originally Posted by alysheba4

did you see that big brown didnt even look like he ran a race as he came back to get unsaddled? he is a freak.

Looked like he was ready for another lap...

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

In case anyone wonders, Big Brown's Derby was not rated higher than his super impressive Fla Derby as his PF there was -89.

No doubt. ANYONE can "see" that the FD was more impressive than
the DERBY.

[Bravado2112]

I suspect Beyer used an independent variant for the same reason Jerry Brown did at Thorograph and posted about yesterday:

don't have trackman work yet, but if the wind was as strong (24mph) as they reported on TV and in their faces leaving the Derby gate, it would slow down the time for that race significantly (they run through the stretch twice), and speed up the times for the one turn races significantly, especially for the ones longer than 6f. This is going to come up a very big figure-- On Beyer it would be about neg 2 TG, before adjusting for ground.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Bravado2112

I suspect Beyer used an independent variant for the same reason Jerry Brown did at Thorograph and posted about yesterday:

don't have trackman work yet, but if the wind was as strong (24mph) as they reported on TV and in their faces leaving the Derby gate, it would slow down the time for that race significantly (they run through the stretch twice), and speed up the times for the one turn races significantly, especially for the ones longer than 6f. This is going to come up a very big figure-- On Beyer it would be about neg 2 TG, before adjusting for ground.

It was very very windy and the wind could not have been beneficial on the other hand the track was kind of firm and I suspect extremely fast

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Bravado2112

I suspect Beyer used an independent variant for the same reason Jerry Brown did at Thorograph and posted about yesterday:

don't have trackman work yet, but if the wind was as strong (24mph) as they reported on TV and in their faces leaving the Derby gate, it would slow down the time for that race significantly (they run through the stretch twice), and speed up the times for the one turn races significantly, especially for the ones longer than 6f. This is going to come up a very big figure-- On Beyer it would be about neg 2 TG, before adjusting for ground.

The other routes run 1.5f shorter into the alleged strong wind. 5 points is about 3 lengths at 10f on Beyers scale. It is a big stretch to say the wind caused that much difference over the extra 1.5 furlongs the horses ran into the wind.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

No doubt. ANYONE can "see" that the FD was more impressive than
the DERBY.

I don't know that I would say a horse running alone uncontested on the lead, no matter how fast, is more impressive that what he did in the Derby.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I don't know that I would say a horse running alone uncontested on the lead, no matter how fast, is more impressive that what he did in the Derby.

tongue-in-cheek, CJ

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

tongue-in-cheek, CJ

I gotta work on that, I'm slipping in my older age.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

In case anyone wonders, Big Brown's Derby was not rated higher than his super impressive Fla Derby as his PF there was -89.

Roman's numbers aren't very fair to off the pace runners like Street Sense.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Roman's numbers aren't very fair to off the pace runners like Street Sense.

Hard to justify that....remember, Monarchos got a -75, by far the highest in the last 10 years. Dr Roman takes more factors into consideration than Beyer, you can read about his methodology at his site.