Big Brown Beyer 109

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Ground loss is not relevant in BSF's...

You decided he's a "104-106 type horse' (whatever that is supposed to be) based on 2 dirt track starts? His 2nd and 3rd career starts overall? And he has that fixed ceiling? 104-106? That's not exactly how horses, especially in the spring of their 2 year old year, develop.

I know ground loss is not relevent but a horse loses that much ground it gets much harder to run a career top at 10 furlongs....at least that is my thinking. He should have got a 104, I give him a bit of a trip so I can see him around 106 for this type of race.

He is beatable if a horse like Harlem Rocker shows up and improves of his last. Big Brown is not as good a horse as street sense if you ask me at this point.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

He is beatable if a horse like Harlem Rocker shows up and improves of his last. Big Brown is not as good a horse as street sense if you ask me at this point.

^^^ I pretty much agree with that... If hooked with Kentucky Bear and Harlem Rocker, it will get mighty interesting.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I know ground loss is not relevent but a horse loses that much ground it gets much harder to run a career top at 10 furlongs....at least that is my thinking. He should have got a 104, I give him a bit of a trip so I can see him around 106 for this type of race.

He is beatable if a horse like Harlem Rocker shows up and improves of his last. Big Brown is not as good a horse as street sense if you ask me at this point.

Originally Posted by Kasept

^^^ I pretty much agree with that... If hooked with Kentucky Bear and Harlem Rocker, it will get mighty interesting.

Agree with both of you on the Harlem Rocker statement. He is a serious horse, maybe the only other one in this whole crop (Kentucky Bear I have an affinity for but he's not the talent of these two... I don't think he is, at least).

As stated above, this number was fabricated to fit better. His real performances, if taken in the context of how Beyer ORIGINALLY intended them to be created would have been 104, 113, 104 (and the turf race debut would have been MUCH, MUCH higher than the 90 it was assigned).

[HaloWishingwell]

it's not a point if he's as good as STREET SENSE but what in his crop is as good? He proved he doesn't need the lead or hooked to run his race. It's a matter if his feet can hold up two weeks after this race if that's not an issue then it a matter if his gate doesn't open up against this bunch.

[alysheba4]

Originally Posted by Kasept

^^^ I pretty much agree with that... If hooked with Kentucky Bear and Harlem Rocker, it will get mighty interesting.

.....wow, this horse HAS PAID WORKOUTS...... he in my opinoin a better horse than streat sense.......

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by alysheba4

.....wow, this horse HAS PAID WORKOUTS...... he in my opinoin a better horse than streat sense.......

In case anyone wonders, Big Brown's Derby was not rated higher than his super impressive Fla Derby as his PF there was -89.

[sumitas]

it's beyond the numbers that i wonder about

[alysheba4]

did you see that big brown didnt even look like he ran a race as he came back to get unsaddled? he is a freak.

[AlexP]

Alright Sniper, thanks. I'm still trying to figure out how Beyers are calculated and learn more about them (I mean, I know what's good, bad, etc, but how they're figured out).

[Better Than Honour]

Originally Posted by alysheba4

did you see that big brown didnt even look like he ran a race as he came back to get unsaddled? he is a freak.

He was tired. Not exhausted, but tired. A freak would be a horse throwing up a sub 2:00 time with a 115 beyer. He is actually just very typical of most derby winners. Nothing more. He just hasn't had to beat much. They all eventually get tested unless they are retired and you will soon see he is much more like a Hard Spun or Street Sense than a Secretariat. Hopefully he will hang around but somebody like Curlin or even the late developing Harlem Rocker will give us a real picture of him. Those feet will eventually get him if he goes the 3 races in 5 weeks. That is just the reality of it.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Better Than Honour

He was tired. Not exhausted, but tired. A freak would be a horse throwing up a sub 2:00 time with a 115 beyer. He is actually just very typical of most derby winners. Nothing more. He just hasn't had to beat much....

Just your typical undefeated Derby winner coming from the 20 post to win by 4+ lengths in his 4th lifetime start.

--Dunbar

[fantini33]

Originally Posted by alysheba4

did you see that big brown didnt even look like he ran a race as he came back to get unsaddled? he is a freak.

Looked like he was ready for another lap...

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

In case anyone wonders, Big Brown's Derby was not rated higher than his super impressive Fla Derby as his PF there was -89.

No doubt. ANYONE can "see" that the FD was more impressive than
the DERBY.

[Bravado2112]

I suspect Beyer used an independent variant for the same reason Jerry Brown did at Thorograph and posted about yesterday:

don't have trackman work yet, but if the wind was as strong (24mph) as they reported on TV and in their faces leaving the Derby gate, it would slow down the time for that race significantly (they run through the stretch twice), and speed up the times for the one turn races significantly, especially for the ones longer than 6f. This is going to come up a very big figure-- On Beyer it would be about neg 2 TG, before adjusting for ground.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Bravado2112

I suspect Beyer used an independent variant for the same reason Jerry Brown did at Thorograph and posted about yesterday:

don't have trackman work yet, but if the wind was as strong (24mph) as they reported on TV and in their faces leaving the Derby gate, it would slow down the time for that race significantly (they run through the stretch twice), and speed up the times for the one turn races significantly, especially for the ones longer than 6f. This is going to come up a very big figure-- On Beyer it would be about neg 2 TG, before adjusting for ground.

It was very very windy and the wind could not have been beneficial on the other hand the track was kind of firm and I suspect extremely fast

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Bravado2112

I suspect Beyer used an independent variant for the same reason Jerry Brown did at Thorograph and posted about yesterday:

don't have trackman work yet, but if the wind was as strong (24mph) as they reported on TV and in their faces leaving the Derby gate, it would slow down the time for that race significantly (they run through the stretch twice), and speed up the times for the one turn races significantly, especially for the ones longer than 6f. This is going to come up a very big figure-- On Beyer it would be about neg 2 TG, before adjusting for ground.

The other routes run 1.5f shorter into the alleged strong wind. 5 points is about 3 lengths at 10f on Beyers scale. It is a big stretch to say the wind caused that much difference over the extra 1.5 furlongs the horses ran into the wind.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

No doubt. ANYONE can "see" that the FD was more impressive than
the DERBY.

I don't know that I would say a horse running alone uncontested on the lead, no matter how fast, is more impressive that what he did in the Derby.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I don't know that I would say a horse running alone uncontested on the lead, no matter how fast, is more impressive that what he did in the Derby.

tongue-in-cheek, CJ

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

In case anyone wonders, Big Brown's Derby was not rated higher than his super impressive Fla Derby as his PF there was -89.

Roman's numbers aren't very fair to off the pace runners like Street Sense.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Roman's numbers aren't very fair to off the pace runners like Street Sense.

Hard to justify that....remember, Monarchos got a -75, by far the highest in the last 10 years. Dr Roman takes more factors into consideration than Beyer, you can read about his methodology at his site.