Eight Belles form

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by philcski

Drugs...you're comparing apples and oranges. A no-talent filly who went from a terrible trainer to the biggest cheat in the game, to a highly talented filly (in the middle of her development curve) who stayed with the same guy. Not the right time or place to do this, either.

When would be then? After it's forgotten about? Very legit question brought out by Doug and presented in a way that all can understand. And why exactly is comparing Lake and Jones apples and oranges? You think Jones is Preston Burch?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Kasept

When would be then? After it's forgotten about? Very legit question brought out by Doug and presented in a way that all can understand. And why exactly is comparing Lake and Jones apples and oranges? You think Jones is Preston Burch?

As noted above... I have no issue with questioning "where did that race come from" as it's highly relevant and debatable, however I don't agree with who he compared TO, a 50 point jump up from a maiden claiming ranks race when switched to a confirmed cheat. To call it one of the "greatest form reversals ever" is competely inaccurate.

Additionally, Beyer figures have become so massaged on a daily basis it's IMPOSSIBLE to say conclusively whether one number is truly accurate and repeatable. As CJ noted, even the Derby Beyer this year is questionable at best.

[philcski]

Two additional points on this...

Recapturetheglory ran 22 points faster than his prior effort and 16 points better than his previous dirt top in the Illinois Derby. Why no question of this?

The Bris figures (increasingly becoming more useful than Beyers, and what I use when I don't have my own numbers) had Eight Belles running an 83, 86, 77 (not perservered), 91, and 99 (in the N2L) in the races in question. Not quite the startling form reversal that the Beyers would indicate.

[cmorioles]

I'd rather use a blindfold and an abacus than resort to BRIS numbers. To be fair though, I couldn't use Beyer numbers blindly either.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I'd rather use a blindfold and an abacus than resort to BRIS numbers. To be fair though, I couldn't use Beyer numbers blindly either.

Would you use ANY number blindly for real money? Of course not.

Originally Posted by Scav

And Recapturetheglory tossed ET in the tunnel going to the track, he ran his ass off

He ran big, I was very surprised.

[the_fat_man]

When I saw this thread yesterday, I took a look all of EB's races, from 11/30 on.
Here's what I found:

1) 11/30 wide both turns, widest backstretch, no cover, mild move 2nd turn, then backed up --- HARD TO TELL what lead she was on in the stretch, as she was not in the picture from just after they entered the stretch to just before the wire --- only way to tell is with the headon, which, as best as I can determine, is NOT available

2) 12/23 --- similarly wide both turns and backstretch (no cover) but made significant move to take the lead entering and was run down by a last mover (who came OUTSIDE of her). significant improvement AND didn't change leads, with VERY UGLY action That she ran 2nd with a similarly wide trip without changing leads, and being last moved, is a HUGE, but obvious, improvement.

3) 1/21 ----- INSIDE TRIP, changed leads, easily. She was still running green in the stretch, however. Improving horse, better trip, lead change results in a WIPEOUT effort.

While the improvement was a huge one, it certainly was evident that the filly was improving. And anyone on top of it got a whopping 5:2. Mucho work, for those that tracked her, for little reward. Then again, we can debate the reason for her improvement, which is much more important than scoring.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by philcski

Two additional points on this...

Recapturetheglory ran 22 points faster than his prior effort and 16 points better than his previous dirt top in the Illinois Derby. Why no question of this?

The Bris figures (increasingly becoming more useful than Beyers, and what I use when I don't have my own numbers) had Eight Belles running an 83, 86, 77 (not perservered), 91, and 99 (in the N2L) in the races in question. Not quite the startling form reversal that the Beyers would indicate.

And Recapturetheglory tossed ET in the tunnel going to the track, he ran his ass off

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by philcski

Two additional points on this...

Recapturetheglory ran 22 points faster than his prior effort and 16 points better than his previous dirt top in the Illinois Derby. Why no question of this?

The Bris figures (increasingly becoming more useful than Beyers, and what I use when I don't have my own numbers) had Eight Belles running an 83, 86, 77 (not perservered), 91, and 99 (in the N2L) in the races in question. Not quite the startling form reversal that the Beyers would indicate.

Of course on the bris figures the three starts for Recapturetheglory on the dirt were 95, 99, 104 which hardly seems like an unrealistic progression.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Of course on the bris figures the three starts for Recapturetheglory on the dirt were 95, 99, 104 which hardly seems like an unrealistic progression.

Exactly correct.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

Two additional points on this...

Recapturetheglory ran 22 points faster than his prior effort and 16 points better than his previous dirt top in the Illinois Derby. Why no question of this?

First of all - in RTG's case - you have one big race (which happened to be a win over an inside-speed biased track while setting a slow pace) That giant jump-up had more to do with pace and trip and even if you want to pretend that number was a legit indication of how well he ran. It also hasn't been repeated over and over.

It was also his first dirt race at age 3. There was a 5 month gap between that race in his prior dirt start.

In his prior dirt race, he was 2nd beaten 2 lengths to Cool Coal Man with a career top 86 Beyer.

You are right, RTG jumped 16 points to a new top in the Ill Derby. However, it was only his 3rd lifetime dirt start, and his first in 5 months, and he had an uncontested lead over an inside speed track while setting a slow pace.

That was a horrible analogy. Alina would have been much better...even though she was trainer change and layoff like Cantrel.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

First of all - in RTG's case - you have one big race (which happened to be a win over an inside-speed biased track while setting a slow pace) That giant jump-up had more to do with pace and trip and even if you want to pretend that number was a legit indication of how well he ran - it hasn't been repeated over and over.
It was also his first dirt race at age 3. There was a 5 month gap between that race in his prior dirt start.

In his prior dirt race, he was 2nd beaten 2 lengths to Cool Coal Man with a career top 86 Beyer.

You are right, RTG jumped 16 points to a new top in the Ill Derby. However, it was only his 3rd lifetime dirt start, and his first in 5 months, and he had an uncontested lead over an inside speed track while setting a slow pace.

That was a horrible analogy. Alina would have been much better...even though she was trainer change and layoff like Cantrel.

I fished and you bit. OF COURSE RTG's explosion was due to pace and trip, we know that because it was so plainly obvious. Note the pace in Eight Belles' 12/23 race... they went 1:14 to 6F. 4 weeks later, they went 1:12 4/5 (so on raw time, 7.5 lengths faster) and she was uncontested in the stretch.

Basically you're implying that based on the chain of events, Larry Jones is cheating, with some type of snake venom concoction or something, especially with the comparison to Lake. I didn't want to come out and say that but that's the impression that I get. Please tell me I'm reading your statements incorrectly.

[freddymo]

DrugS the filly broke down I don't believe she was drugged into thinking she was fine. Beyer maybe right that the breed is becoming more and more fragile. This move up drug theory is really highly spectulative if you ask me... By all accounts Jones is one of the good guys?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

I fished and you bit. OF COURSE RTG's explosion was due to pace and trip, we know that because it was so plainly obvious. Note the pace in Eight Belles' 12/23 race... they went 1:14 to 6F. 4 weeks later, they went 1:12 4/5 (so on raw time, 7.5 lengths faster) and she was uncontested in the stretch.

Basically you're implying that based on the chain of events, Larry Jones is cheating, with some type of snake venom concoction or something, especially with the comparison to Lake. I didn't want to come out and say that but that's the impression that I get. Please tell me I'm reading your statements incorrectly.

I am not implying anything. I am not overly subtle and don't post in code.

If you think Eight Belles had sneaky 2yo form - I can only say I strongly disagree. I watched those races and studied the charts of surrounding races. She was mediocre in those races.

As for her 6th race, she ran 20 points faster (11.5 lengths better) than a colt who finished 2nd in a Graded Stake next out.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I am not implying anything. I am not overly subtle and don't post in code.

If you think Eight Belles had sneaky 2yo form - I can only say I strongly disagree. I watched those races and studied the charts of surrounding races. She was mediocre in those races.

As for her 6th race, she ran 20 points faster (11.5 lengths better) than a colt who finished 2nd in a Graded Stake next out.

Then again... she proved on track how superior she is to every colt in this crop, save one.

I don't know if she had sneaky 2YO form or not. I do know she ran 5 very good, not spectacular, races in a row... regardless of what happened prior to that.

I'm glad that's not what you're shooting at, thanks for refuting.