Eight Belles form

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

She did not change leads in the stretch as a 2 year old even on 12/23.

Perhaps she didn't change leads in the stretch in any of her 2yo races because something was bothering her a little and it might not have felt good. She was a mediocre 2yo.

You say she changed leads right on cue in all of her 3yo races - perhaps because nothing was bothering her in those races and she was more apt to fully extend herself.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Perhaps she didn't change leads in the stretch in any of her 2yo races because something was bothering her a little and it might not have felt good. She was a mediocre 2yo.

You say she changed leads right on cue in all of her 3yo races - perhaps because nothing was bothering her in those races and she was more apt to fully extend herself.

Drugs...you're comparing apples and oranges. A no-talent filly who went from a terrible trainer to the biggest cheat in the game, to a highly talented filly (in the middle of her development curve) who stayed with the same guy. Not the right time or place to do this, either.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

Drugs...you're comparing apples and oranges. A no-talent filly who went from a terrible trainer to the biggest cheat in the game, to a highly talented filly (in the middle of her development curve) who stayed with the same guy. Not the right time or place to do this, either.

Show me a race prior to her 15 length blowout victory in supersonic time, in a race she wasn't even favored in - that suggests she was a "highly talented filly"

I'm sorry - but improving 13+ lengths over a career top on an established form - with just four weeks rest - that is no "devolpment curve" - not even close.

I'm not saying it was illegal medication that led to one of the great form reversals of all-time .. I don't know what it was ... but it sure wasn't a development curve.

When is the right time and where is the right place? never and nowhere?

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Show me a race prior to her 15 length blowout victory in supersonic time, in a race she wasn't even favored in - that suggests she was a "highly talented filly"

I'm sorry - but improving 13+ lengths over a career top on an established form - with just four weeks rest - that is no "devolpment curve" - not even close.

I'm not saying it was illegal medication that led to one of the great form reversals of all-time .. I don't know what it was ... but it sure wasn't a development curve.

When is the right time and where is the right place? never and nowhere?

You know much more than me. I would ask you what would be a normal development curve?? 5 lengths?? 8 lengths?? 3 lengths?? What would have been the highest believable Beyer for her to get in that January Fairgrounds race??

[horseofcourse]

Another question is what says she was not talented at 2?? So if Aldebutante or Rampillion are running high 70s Beyers late this year we should consider them talentless?? I honestly don't see where those numbers suggest she had no talent.

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

Another question is what says she was not talented at 2?? So if Aldebutante or Rampillion are running high 70s Beyers late this year we should consider them talentless?? I honestly don't see where those numbers suggest she had no talent.

Jesustapdancingchrist.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Jesustapdancingchrist.

No, I'm asking questions to someone who knows more than me. I'm simply trying to learn stuff. I find this thread fascinating. I'm trying to learn as much as I can.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Show me a race prior to her 15 length blowout victory in supersonic time, in a race she wasn't even favored in - that suggests she was a "highly talented filly"

I'm sorry - but improving 13+ lengths over a career top on an established form - with just four weeks rest - that is no "devolpment curve" - not even close.

I'm not saying it was illegal medication that led to one of the great form reversals of all-time .. I don't know what it was ... but it sure wasn't a development curve.

When is the right time and where is the right place? never and nowhere?

You've been watching this game at an expert level for a long time... you've never seen a 2yo/3yo explode 10 lengths faster? Happens all the time. I don't know the intracacies of her trips prior to the N2L win, or whether the Beyer figures are at all accurate for any of those races... what if the prior two races were adjusted down 5-6 points? Then we're talking a 7 length improvement (i.e., just over 1 second)- how is that unbelievable? Making my own figures for all these years, I've learned that figures, especially for young horses, don't tell the whole story.

In her tragic case... never and nowhere is probably right. I don't have an issue, ever, with retrospective analysis of form as it's a great learning experience, but I just don't get your comparison to this obvious Scott Lake special.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by philcski

You've been watching this game at an expert level for a long time... you've never seen a 2yo/3yo explode 10 lengths faster? Happens all the time. I don't know the intracacies of her trips prior to the N2L win, or whether the Beyer figures are at all accurate for any of those races... what if the prior two races were adjusted down 5-6 points? Then we're talking a 7 length improvement (i.e., just over 1 second)- how is that unbelievable? Making my own figures for all these years, I've learned that figures, especially for young horses, don't tell the whole story.

In her tragic case... never and nowhere is probably right. I don't have an issue, ever, with retrospective analysis of form as it's a great learning experience, but I just don't get your comparison to this obvious Scott Lake special.

Yeah, that was my first thought. She won her maiden by 10. Did anyone do their own figures that day to determine whether she might have run in the high 80s and they split it out because the number was too hard to believe?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

You've been watching this game at an expert level for a long time... you've never seen a 2yo/3yo explode 10 lengths faster? Happens all the time.

Yes - often with a trainer change and a layoff - and not always repeted in subsquent races. which is why I used Cantrel as an example. The layoff - trainer change combo didn't happen in Eight Belles case.

Anyone who doesn't think she made a monster improvment in the race she won by 15 lengths, while not favored in the betting, with a conservative 100 Beyer .. I just don't know.

I'm not saying every horse who makes a mind-boggling form reversal, and proceeds to repeat the race over and over, ends up breaking down on the track. They don't. The vast majority of them disappear though.

Alina, who was 2nd to Eight Belles in the Fantasy, is an example of a dramatic form reversal by a horse at a top level who hasn't yet tailed off. She fits the traditional mode of trainer change plus layoff .. Eight Belles doesn't.

Bruce L Jackson trained In Excess, who was one of the better horses I've ever seen in my life - before anyone accuses him of being "a bum" like they did with Pino, who consistantly wins at about a 20% clip.

[10 pnt move up]

There are just certain trainers we see this with constantly in the midwest and east coast........I honestly dont recall a figure jump like this in socal at the stakes level? DrugS do you?

[horseofcourse]

I mentioned Lawyer Ron...here are his first 6 races...

53, 55, 49, 83, 78, 78

then his next 6 pre-Derby

92, 97, 106, 95, 94, 98.

Same trainer, zero layoff. He also did suffer a minor injury in the Derby I believe.

I guess he could be explained away by his first 6 were on turf or poly and his second 6 all on dirt. (Actually his 83 was on a muddy dirt.). But I would certainly say a big change in form without question. I don't think his first 6 are stating future eclipse winner however. But you actually have TWO jumps in form from his first 3 to his second 3...then from those 3 to his next 6. You go from average low 50s his first 3 to average around 80 his next three to average in the high 90s his next 6.

Don't young horses often just improve sometimes with no layoff as this one did twice??

[ArlJim78]

I'm at work and going from memory, but this is I think a fairly accurate recreation of her tg#'s. there is gradual development over the first five races.
then she shoots all the way over to 1's and o's. normally when you go from a 7 to a 1 there is a pullback (dare I say bounce) at some point, some regression. Her chart just looks odd. I don't claim that there was any cheating, its just really odd. I'm guessing on the derby number, but it had to be at least a zero or one.

derby?...........0
9th race .......1
8th race........1
7th race........0
6th race........1
5th race............................7
4th race..............................8
3rd race................................10
2nd race..................................13
1st race....................................14

also someone mentioned the bris numbers and I think they were looking at the final speed. In addition to the final speed her first and second call pace numbers jumped a lot on that 6th race.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I'm at work and going from memory, but this is I think a fairly accurate recreation of her tg#'s. there is gradual development over the first five races.
then she shoots all the way over to 1's and o's. normally when you go from a 7 to a 1 there is a pullback (dare I say bounce) at some point, some regression. Her chart just looks odd. I don't claim that there was any cheating, its just really odd. I'm guessing on the derby number, but it had to be at least a zero or one.

derby?...........0
9th race .......1
8th race........1
7th race........0
6th race........1
5th race............................7
4th race..............................8
3rd race................................10
2nd race..................................13
1st race....................................14

also someone mentioned the bris numbers and I think they were looking at the final speed. In addition to the final speed her first and second call pace numbers jumped a lot on that 6th race.

Her 6th race represented a career top of 10.94 lengths on Thoro-Graph figures. On Beyer figures, it was a 12.75 length career top.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by philcski

Drugs...you're comparing apples and oranges. A no-talent filly who went from a terrible trainer to the biggest cheat in the game, to a highly talented filly (in the middle of her development curve) who stayed with the same guy. Not the right time or place to do this, either.

When would be then? After it's forgotten about? Very legit question brought out by Doug and presented in a way that all can understand. And why exactly is comparing Lake and Jones apples and oranges? You think Jones is Preston Burch?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Kasept

When would be then? After it's forgotten about? Very legit question brought out by Doug and presented in a way that all can understand. And why exactly is comparing Lake and Jones apples and oranges? You think Jones is Preston Burch?

As noted above... I have no issue with questioning "where did that race come from" as it's highly relevant and debatable, however I don't agree with who he compared TO, a 50 point jump up from a maiden claiming ranks race when switched to a confirmed cheat. To call it one of the "greatest form reversals ever" is competely inaccurate.

Additionally, Beyer figures have become so massaged on a daily basis it's IMPOSSIBLE to say conclusively whether one number is truly accurate and repeatable. As CJ noted, even the Derby Beyer this year is questionable at best.

[philcski]

Two additional points on this...

Recapturetheglory ran 22 points faster than his prior effort and 16 points better than his previous dirt top in the Illinois Derby. Why no question of this?

The Bris figures (increasingly becoming more useful than Beyers, and what I use when I don't have my own numbers) had Eight Belles running an 83, 86, 77 (not perservered), 91, and 99 (in the N2L) in the races in question. Not quite the startling form reversal that the Beyers would indicate.

[cmorioles]

I'd rather use a blindfold and an abacus than resort to BRIS numbers. To be fair though, I couldn't use Beyer numbers blindly either.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I'd rather use a blindfold and an abacus than resort to BRIS numbers. To be fair though, I couldn't use Beyer numbers blindly either.

Would you use ANY number blindly for real money? Of course not.

Originally Posted by Scav

And Recapturetheglory tossed ET in the tunnel going to the track, he ran his ass off

He ran big, I was very surprised.

[the_fat_man]

When I saw this thread yesterday, I took a look all of EB's races, from 11/30 on.
Here's what I found:

1) 11/30 wide both turns, widest backstretch, no cover, mild move 2nd turn, then backed up --- HARD TO TELL what lead she was on in the stretch, as she was not in the picture from just after they entered the stretch to just before the wire --- only way to tell is with the headon, which, as best as I can determine, is NOT available

2) 12/23 --- similarly wide both turns and backstretch (no cover) but made significant move to take the lead entering and was run down by a last mover (who came OUTSIDE of her). significant improvement AND didn't change leads, with VERY UGLY action That she ran 2nd with a similarly wide trip without changing leads, and being last moved, is a HUGE, but obvious, improvement.

3) 1/21 ----- INSIDE TRIP, changed leads, easily. She was still running green in the stretch, however. Improving horse, better trip, lead change results in a WIPEOUT effort.

While the improvement was a huge one, it certainly was evident that the filly was improving. And anyone on top of it got a whopping 5:2. Mucho work, for those that tracked her, for little reward. Then again, we can debate the reason for her improvement, which is much more important than scoring.