A Derby fave?

[MaTH716]

I guess no one wanted to take a 5-2 shot breaking from the 20 post in his 4th career start. Who would have thought that he would be able to race 4 wide the whole way and win for fun. I am not suprised, but I tossed him on Saturday and I would do it again.

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

I guess no one wanted to take a 5-2 shot breaking from the 20 post in his 4th career start. Who would have thought that he would be able to race 4 wide the whole way and win for fun. I am not suprised, but I tossed him on Saturday and I would do it again.

Good point. Leaving BB off your tickets (at least the top of your tickets) was the right play. It was a losing play, as things turned out, but it was the right play.

[pointman]

Picking a Derby favorite does not do much for a handicapper, everyone says, wow, he/she picked the favorite, how hard is that? However, picking a longshot that the capper gets lucky enough and wins can make a name for a handicapper. There really is not much incentive for these people to pick the favorite in the Derby. I remember the NY Post praising Debbie Little for days because she picked Giacomo.

[MISTERGEE]

I am not sure if this is the time to pick for "value" in a 20 horse field, if you key off the winner at least you have a shot at an over 3k tri and 58k super, only 3 of those 20 cappers had a shot at that.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

I am not sure if this is the time to pick for "value" in a 20 horse field, if you key off the winner at least you have a shot at an over 3k tri and 58k super, only 3 of those 20 cappers had a shot at that.

I would think that the all button would of had to be used somewhere.

[Payson Dave]

At a little over 2/1 there clearly was some big money put on BB....
For those that really liked him, the $3400 triple was definately hit-able....one over six over six for a buck is $30...I did not play any triples but both the filly and DOC were in my top seven...

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

At a little over 2/1 there clearly was some big money put on BB....
For those that really liked him, the $3400 triple was definately hit-able....one over six over six for a buck is $30...I did not play any triples but both the filly and DOC were in my top seven...

Yeah, same here. I tossed him from my wagering expecting low payouts and instead had him hit over three horses I liked and played in the 2nd and 3rd spots on all my tickets and winced when I saw the payouts. I guess the Derby is the one race where you can just toss value out the window cause you are going to get a nice payout even with the chalk on top.

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

I am not sure if this is the time to pick for "value" in a 20 horse field, if you key off the winner at least you have a shot at an over 3k tri and 58k super, only 3 of those 20 cappers had a shot at that.

Value is always a consideration. What you seem to be saying is not that using BB was not a value play, but that using BB was still a value play in the exotics, even at 2-1.

Fair enough, if you believed he was a lock. If you thought he was vulnerable, then keying him just wasn't the smart thing to do. I'm not so sure that all those pro cappers refused to play him just because he was the favorite. Maybe they honestly thought BB was't as good as claimed.

On these big days, you can use the favorite and go wide underneath with the rightful belief that you can still make money. Or you can swing for the fences by leaving out the public's choice with the rightful belief that you can make an obscene amount of money. Most people's bankrolls are not big enough to do both.

It's easy, with 20-20 hindsight, to point out that the tri had a decent payout with the favorite on top. Unfortunately, bets have to be made before the race. Given the information we had about BB before the race, I still say it wasn't a bad move to bet against him.

[Payson Dave]

"For those that really liked him the tri was very hit-able"

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

"For those that really liked him the tri was very hit-able"

"Fair enough, if you believed he was a lock."