Eight Belles form

[CSC]

Interesting stuff, however I don't think it is an isolated case. I wonder if someone can pull up Charismatic's form page. I remember his form improved after the Lexington after a cluster of mediocre races. Wonder what Lukas did there if anything to change this guy's form.

[Danzig]

i know lukas said he came to the realization he was training charismatic wrong-that when he changed his approach, the horse changed his ways. of course anyone who wishes to be a dwl detractor would say otherwise....

[horseofcourse]

Just looking through the Beyers she went on a 53, 67, 74, 78 progression through 12/23 as a 2 year old tossing the 11/30 race. She did not change leads in the stretch as a 2 year old even on 12/23. Would an 85-90 Beyer in her next start have been an ok progression or believable?? Granted 100 was a huge jump. I'm not sure if I would consider it a potential magic potion drug being given to her. Of course it's possible. I know the preferred method of running is changing to your right lead in the stretch and she did it perfectly all 5 of her starts in 2008 when she absolutely did not do that in 2007. I would attribute that development in her to at least a few Beyer points perhaps in her magic jump to 100 combined with just continued progression from her 2 yr old improvement pattern combined with maturity and growing a bit into her massive frame.

[10 pnt move up]

That form turn around is pretty stagering, might be more to her turn around other then better hay and oats, at least thats what I think when I see such a sudden turn around.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

She did not change leads in the stretch as a 2 year old even on 12/23.

Perhaps she didn't change leads in the stretch in any of her 2yo races because something was bothering her a little and it might not have felt good. She was a mediocre 2yo.

You say she changed leads right on cue in all of her 3yo races - perhaps because nothing was bothering her in those races and she was more apt to fully extend herself.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Perhaps she didn't change leads in the stretch in any of her 2yo races because something was bothering her a little and it might not have felt good. She was a mediocre 2yo.

You say she changed leads right on cue in all of her 3yo races - perhaps because nothing was bothering her in those races and she was more apt to fully extend herself.

Drugs...you're comparing apples and oranges. A no-talent filly who went from a terrible trainer to the biggest cheat in the game, to a highly talented filly (in the middle of her development curve) who stayed with the same guy. Not the right time or place to do this, either.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

Drugs...you're comparing apples and oranges. A no-talent filly who went from a terrible trainer to the biggest cheat in the game, to a highly talented filly (in the middle of her development curve) who stayed with the same guy. Not the right time or place to do this, either.

Show me a race prior to her 15 length blowout victory in supersonic time, in a race she wasn't even favored in - that suggests she was a "highly talented filly"

I'm sorry - but improving 13+ lengths over a career top on an established form - with just four weeks rest - that is no "devolpment curve" - not even close.

I'm not saying it was illegal medication that led to one of the great form reversals of all-time .. I don't know what it was ... but it sure wasn't a development curve.

When is the right time and where is the right place? never and nowhere?

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Show me a race prior to her 15 length blowout victory in supersonic time, in a race she wasn't even favored in - that suggests she was a "highly talented filly"

I'm sorry - but improving 13+ lengths over a career top on an established form - with just four weeks rest - that is no "devolpment curve" - not even close.

I'm not saying it was illegal medication that led to one of the great form reversals of all-time .. I don't know what it was ... but it sure wasn't a development curve.

When is the right time and where is the right place? never and nowhere?

You know much more than me. I would ask you what would be a normal development curve?? 5 lengths?? 8 lengths?? 3 lengths?? What would have been the highest believable Beyer for her to get in that January Fairgrounds race??

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Show me a race prior to her 15 length blowout victory in supersonic time, in a race she wasn't even favored in - that suggests she was a "highly talented filly"

I'm sorry - but improving 13+ lengths over a career top on an established form - with just four weeks rest - that is no "devolpment curve" - not even close.

I'm not saying it was illegal medication that led to one of the great form reversals of all-time .. I don't know what it was ... but it sure wasn't a development curve.

When is the right time and where is the right place? never and nowhere?

You've been watching this game at an expert level for a long time... you've never seen a 2yo/3yo explode 10 lengths faster? Happens all the time. I don't know the intracacies of her trips prior to the N2L win, or whether the Beyer figures are at all accurate for any of those races... what if the prior two races were adjusted down 5-6 points? Then we're talking a 7 length improvement (i.e., just over 1 second)- how is that unbelievable? Making my own figures for all these years, I've learned that figures, especially for young horses, don't tell the whole story.

In her tragic case... never and nowhere is probably right. I don't have an issue, ever, with retrospective analysis of form as it's a great learning experience, but I just don't get your comparison to this obvious Scott Lake special.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by philcski

Drugs...you're comparing apples and oranges. A no-talent filly who went from a terrible trainer to the biggest cheat in the game, to a highly talented filly (in the middle of her development curve) who stayed with the same guy. Not the right time or place to do this, either.

When would be then? After it's forgotten about? Very legit question brought out by Doug and presented in a way that all can understand. And why exactly is comparing Lake and Jones apples and oranges? You think Jones is Preston Burch?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Kasept

When would be then? After it's forgotten about? Very legit question brought out by Doug and presented in a way that all can understand. And why exactly is comparing Lake and Jones apples and oranges? You think Jones is Preston Burch?

As noted above... I have no issue with questioning "where did that race come from" as it's highly relevant and debatable, however I don't agree with who he compared TO, a 50 point jump up from a maiden claiming ranks race when switched to a confirmed cheat. To call it one of the "greatest form reversals ever" is competely inaccurate.

Additionally, Beyer figures have become so massaged on a daily basis it's IMPOSSIBLE to say conclusively whether one number is truly accurate and repeatable. As CJ noted, even the Derby Beyer this year is questionable at best.

[freddymo]

[xx

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Perhaps she didn't change leads in the stretch in any of her 2yo races because something was bothering her a little and it might not have felt good. She was a mediocre 2yo.

You say she changed leads right on cue in all of her 3yo races - perhaps because nothing was bothering her in those races and she was more apt to fully extend herself.

Maybe she grew up, maybe what was hurting healed thru competent vetinary care, maybe she grew mentally. If Jones is a good trainer and honorable he got the filly to run better which is precisely his job. Speculating or inferring that the ONLY way to make a horse run faster is to cure her woes with drugs isn't too responsible.

DrugS you are industry guy now. Either stand behind Jones or indict him don't tease us with what might or could be. Make a stand! Right or wrong people will respect it as such.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Speculating or inferring that the ONLY way to make a horse run faster is to cure her woes with drugs isn't too responsible.

No kidding Freddy.

It wasn't that she devloped - it was how much she developed, how unexpected the development was, how incredibly rare her form is, and how she ended by collapsing with fractures in both ankles while galloping out well after the wire.

Originally Posted by freddymo

DrugS you are industry guy now. Either stand behind Jones or indict him don't tease us with what might or could be. Make a stand! Right or wrong people will respect it as such.

I'm hardly an industry guy.

There is no stand to make. Something happened in four weeks time that improved Eight Belles in a dramatic way. When you look at the way she went out - it makes the form reversal impossible to ignore.

That's all.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

No kidding Freddy.

It wasn't that she devloped - it was how much she developed, how unexpected the development was, how incredibly rare her form is, and how she ended by collapsing with fractures in both ankles while galloping out well after the wire.



I'm hardly an industry guy.

There is no stand to make. Something happened in four weeks time that improved Eight Belles in a dramatic way. When you look at the way she went out - it makes the form reversal impossible to ignore.

That's all.

DrugS she got good fast the same way that pig Pryo got bad fast..lol

You are walking people down a dangerous spectulative road. Can you be right? of course...Do you know the situation well enough to do such speculating especially when you are smart enough to accurately twist some of the facts to make your case..NOPE and therefore I think its to dangerous to lead people in such a direction.

Basically you could ask Steve to get Jones on the air and ask him how 8 belles got so good so fast. Maybe we get an answer which helps enlighten the subject vs. darkening a bad day with more crap

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Perhaps she didn't change leads in the stretch in any of her 2yo races because something was bothering her a little and it might not have felt good. She was a mediocre 2yo.

You say she changed leads right on cue in all of her 3yo races - perhaps because nothing was bothering her in those races and she was more apt to fully extend herself.

That is certainly a possibility. I don't know much about Jones and his reputation. I always thought it was ok. In the 21st century you pretty much have to question everything I guess. I hope that is not the case here. My only defense is that she was indeed making steady improvements through her 2 year old season tossing the 11/30 race. Mediocre compared to what?? I would say a 2 yr old filly running high 70s Beyers is up there on the scale...far from a grade 1 stakes 2 year old filly...but well up on the charts. AS far as the lead change thing...I would hope to think it's just a case of training or her figuring it out. I refer you to Lawyer Ron as a 2 year old who had a similar type problem often at age 2...not as regularly as Eight Belles but many races he didn't change. Then all of a sudden switched with regularity and his numbers spiked astronimically very late 2 yr old or early 3 yr old year. Much of this was attributed to him moving to dirt from running on grass and poly at 2.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by CSC

Interesting stuff, however I don't think it is an isolated case. I wonder if someone can pull up Charismatic's form page. I remember his form improved after the Lexington after a cluster of mediocre races. Wonder what Lukas did there if anything to change this guy's form.

Charismatic didn't have one gigantic leap like Eight Belles - but he had two very significant spikes in his form.



You notice the 9 point move up (above his prior top) after he was 2nd in the claiming race - but the scary leap was the 13 point move up (above his prior top) between April 3rd and April 18th.

In the Lexington, which was his 14th career start, Charismatic improved 8.5 lengths over his career best race on figures. He held that form though the entire triple crown series before breaking down after the wire in the Belmont.

I'm always a little suspicous when I see those huge unexpected and unexplainable spikes in form - though the vast majority of them come in situations like with Cantrel (off a layoff and for a new trainer) .. the type of form of a Charismatic and Eight Belles is extremely rare. Huge improvements on firmly established form, while going for the same trainer, without much rest between starts on move-up day.

[pmacdaddy]

I'm usually no conspiracy theorist and usually take breakdowns as an unfortunate part of the game.

I have to admit those PP's really bother me. Maybe there is a good reason they shouldn't, but they do.