Triple Crown?

Originally Posted by Danzig

i'd like to remind everyone who put up a horse who wasn't a tc winner after their derby win, that they are ignoring that fact that there are always those who proclaim the ky derby winner the next tc winner...
i'd also remind everyone that we've seen horses who were damn good get this far before, only to fail later.
so, before you guarantee a tc win, think of spectacular bid, majestic prince and the like. then tell me again how this is a guarantee for big brown.

I think back on Smarty Jones thinking it was the slop, on Street Sense's red sea divide on the rail. The easy ones like Giacomo. Im always thinking that was lucky. There was no real luck in this one Z. They just kept the horse away from all the others. It was way too easy.

I sensed mostly skeptics after Derby wins. Not with Spectacular Bid. But certainly with most of the winners. If this horse stays sound. Way too easy, too much upside.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by pgardn

I think back on Smarty Jones thinking it was the slop, on Street Sense's red sea divide on the rail. The easy ones like Giacomo. Im always thinking that was lucky. There was no real luck in this one Z. They just kept the horse away from all the others. It was way too easy.

I sensed mostly skeptics after Derby wins. Not with Spectacular Bid. But certainly with most of the winners. If this horse stays sound. Way too easy, too much upside.

I think to be accurate Big Brown is perhaps a pretty good 3 year old in a mediocre crop of 3 year olds. There is no way anyone with a sane mind would be proclaiming a Triple crown had he been born one year earlier, at times fate smiles on you and it has with this horse thus far.

Originally Posted by CSC

I think to be accurate Big Brown is perhaps a pretty good 3 year old in a mediocre crop of 3 year olds. There is no way anyone with a sane mind would be proclaiming a Triple crown had he been born one year earlier, at times fate smiles on you and it has with this horse thus far.

The feet are a definite problem as already stated.
These will be the most closely watched hooves...

[slotdirt]

It is just hard to believe that after all these years following the Triple Crown from Louisville to Old Hilltop to Elmont that this is the horse that seems most likely to win all three. I just threw up a little bit in my mouth.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

It is just hard to believe that after all these years following the Triple Crown from Louisville to Old Hilltop to Elmont that this is the horse that seems most likely to win all three. I just threw up a little bit in my mouth.

you're not alone.

something sick and twisted with the racing gods, if a horse like bid couldn't do it, but our newest derby winner can...

[SCUDSBROTHER]

You don't have to be better than him to beat him in the Belmont.Most of the others got beat by mediocre horses in the Belmont.It's not about how good they are.

[ddthetide]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

It is just hard to believe that after all these years following the Triple Crown from Louisville to Old Hilltop to Elmont that this is the horse that seems most likely to win all three. I just threw up a little bit in my mouth.

it's hard to believe that the rest of the colts are this bad! DoC finished 11 lengths back? the second and third best 3 y/o's are fillies and one of them left us today. sad

[King Glorious]

I know it wouldn't happen but I'd love for Big Brown to skip the Preakness. Listening to the post-race interviews, Dutrow really seemed skeptical about his chances. Imagine that. Before the Derby, he was overflowing with confidence. After that route, he seems skeptical. Well, not skeptical but less confident. He was saying how he wouldn't even be able to train him and may not even breeze him between now and then. He was saying how normally he likes to prepare for a race but now he can't. I'd love to see a trainer win the Derby and say "running back on two-weeks is not in the best interests of my horse" and skip the race. I can't help but think back to the Barbaro situation. Were his long breaks by design or out of necessity? Did the way he came out of races tell Matz that Barbaro needed more time to recover than a few weeks? Obviously, we know about BB's foot history. Is it totally behind him? Did Dutrow chose the Florida Derby and the longer break between then and the Kentucky Derby because he felt that chosing a later race wouldn't allow him the recovery time that he NEEDS? I'm not saying I predict a breakdown in the Preakness but with horses like this, it's always a little bit of a bigger concern for me. When Dutrow made his comments, it reminded me of why I liked Smarty Jones so much. I remember Frankel was talking about him and saying how he had the advantage of training Ghostzapper how he wanted to because he set the schedule while Smarty had his set for him.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by pgardn

The feet are a definite problem as already stated.
These will be the most closely watched hooves...

I don't have the stats to back this up, but it has always been my impression that Dick Dutrow horses as a rule run big races off extended layoffs, would anyone agree? If so the timing of the Triple Crown may be Big Brown's undoing and not as much to do with the competition. Dutrow usually likes to space his races out, a luxury he doesn't have here.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by pgardn

I think back on Smarty Jones thinking it was the slop, on Street Sense's red sea divide on the rail. The easy ones like Giacomo. Im always thinking that was lucky. There was no real luck in this one Z. They just kept the horse away from all the others. It was way too easy.

I sensed mostly skeptics after Derby wins. Not with Spectacular Bid. But certainly with most of the winners. If this horse stays sound. Way too easy, too much upside.

i'll believe it when i see it, and not a moment before. been there, done that, too many times. too many ways that it hasn't happened, when everything seemed lined up to make it happen.
just ask big browns jock about it...he knows all about losing the tc by a whisker.

Originally Posted by Danzig

i'll believe it when i see it, and not a moment before. been there, done that, too many times. too many ways that it hasn't happened, when everything seemed lined up to make it happen.
just ask big browns jock about it...he knows all about losing the tc by a whisker.

With the fragile feet it is a long time to stay sound.
Throw in some mud at Pimlico.

I just cant think of a Kentucky Derby when a horse
ran so much further and made it look so easy. At little
bit of dirt, something. Kent D's goggles are spotless.

There was seemingly very little effort expended.
At least after the Florida Derby the horse looked tired.