Triple Crown?

[CSC]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

After the Barbaro fiasco, in which TC talk was very strong after a similar Derby performance, I suppose people are resigned to not giving their hopes up anymore.

The difference this year is that there doesn't seem to be any Bernadini (who was still 12-1 in the Preakness nonetheless) on the horizon, unless that Harlem Rocker gets rerouted from Canada.

Canadian horses don't usually do well in American Triple Crown events with the exception of Northern Dancer and Sunny's Halo. Alydeed finished second in the Preakness off the Derby Trial, I guess you can make a case that Touch Gold was a product of Canadian racing, ran as a 2 yr old at Woodbine and was by a Canadian Sire and Mare the only exception was he bred in the U.S but it sure looks like there aren't too many new shooters on the horizon. Dahaar and Awesome Again were also late developers.

If Big Brown does go on to win the Triple Crown, the comparisons to Seattle Slew will be inevitible. There was some debate of his greatness due to the question that he didn't have the toughest competition to beat that year either and it was only his race against Affirmed and Exceller that solidified his reputation afterward that respect followed.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by CSC

Canadian horses don't usually do well in American Triple Crown events with the exception of Northern Dancer and Sunny's Halo. Alydeed finished second in the Preakness off the Derby Trial, I guess you can make a case that Touch Gold was a product of Canadian racing, ran as a 2 yr old at Woodbine and was by a Canadian Sire and Mare the only exception was he bred in the U.S but it sure looks like there aren't too many new shooters on the horizon. Dahaar and Awesome Again were also late developers.

Harlem Rocker comes out of Pletcher's barn though (which gives him a better chance of showing up at Pimlico). He isn't a product of Canadian racing.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Harlem Rocker comes out of Pletcher's barn though (which gives him a better chance of showing up at Pimlico). He isn't a product of Canadian racing.

He's an interesting horse and it is hard to guess which route Frank Stronach takes with this horse, since Stronach is a Canadian citizen he may choose the Plate. With Touch Gold he didn't have a choice but with Awesome Again who I think was trained by David Hoffmans at the time he chose the Plate. Maybe this horse turns up at Belmont to break up the party.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by CSC

He's an interesting horse and it is hard to guess which route Frank Stronach takes with this horse, since Stronach is a Canadian citizen he may choose the Plate. With Touch Gold he didn't have a choice but with Awesome Again who I think was trained by David Hoffmans at the time he chose the Plate. Maybe this horse turns up at Belmont to break up the party.

I think Harlem Rocker might be a serious horse but he can't win the Belmont. I'd probably bet him in the Preakness but would still be concerned with the distance. Maybe that half to Jazil and Rags will be good enough. . . Who knows. . . I would just really hate to see these connections win the TC.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I think Harlem Rocker might be a serious horse but he can't win the Belmont. I'd probably bet him in the Preakness but would still be concerned with the distance. Maybe that half to Jazil and Rags will be good enough. . . Who knows. . . I would just really hate to see these connections win the TC.

The Queen's Plate is June 22, so the timing is good if they want to take a shot at the Preakness. Dahaar in comparison last year went onto the Plate, not a bad purse at 1 million dollars. At this point there doesn't seem to be many that offer a challenge to Big Brown, in all fairness I thought he had a pretty wide trip today and still won with ease. Atleast with Harlem Rocker there is an upside from what we saw in the Withers, though to be honest it only came in a 4 horse field. He still has a ways to go.

[MarkyD]

Man, I like Big Brown, but cant stand Dutrow's comment at then end. You see him hugging his daughter and NBC has camera right on him, while he keeps telling her: "they can't beat this horse"

I hate hearing that line being used in sports. I gamble on sports every day of my life, and any pro would never mention that line.
This sport with these millionaires involved are true hollywoods. If only horses could talk.

It is interesting that there is not much of a
celebration on this horse's accomplishments.

Seems rather odd grasping for any
horse (even ones that have never gone 2 turns)
to try and beat Big Brown err... beat Dutrow et al.

The horse had to run as far if not further than any
horse in the race and ran it fast with seemingly
little effort. Looks like there is room for improvement.
This is supposed to be exciting. He might be great on
turf as well.

And Im thinkin maybe he will mess up his feet.
Bizarre.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I think Harlem Rocker might be a serious horse but he can't win the Belmont. I'd probably bet him in the Preakness but would still be concerned with the distance. Maybe that half to Jazil and Rags will be good enough. . . Who knows. . . I would just really hate to see these connections win the TC.

In addition, I don't think distance will be a problem with this horse. It's more inexperience that may his undoing. Easy for me to say, but I'd try the formerly Sir Barton stks now renamed Barbaro stks on Pimlico Preakness Day. See how he comes out of that and then take a shot in the Belmont. Conceivably he could still run in the Plate if they choose to. There's no need to throw him to the wolves this early. Coa said after the race he is still very green.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by CSC

In addition, I don't think distance will be a problem with this horse. It's more inexperience that may his undoing. Easy for me to say, but I'd try the formerly Sir Barton stks now renamed Barbaro stks on Pimlico Preakness Day. See how he comes out of that and then take a shot in the Belmont. Conceivably he could still run in the Plate if they choose to. There's no need to throw him to the wolves this early. Coa said after the race he is still very green.

I think the performances of similarly inexperienced colts like Red Bullet and Bernardini are incentive enough to go for gusto.

And many a Derby also-ran came back to form at Pimlico. Pine Bluff, Hansel, Point Given, Snow Chief, Gate Dancer, Tank's Prospect, etc. etc. I would think Colonel John, who according to the chart made a middle move, and maybe Pyro, who had trouble early, would fit the bill this year.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I think the performances of similarly inexperienced colts like Red Bullet and Bernardini are incentive enough to go for gusto.

And many a Derby also-ran came back to form at Pimlico. Pine Bluff, Hansel, Point Given, Snow Chief, Gate Dancer, Tank's Prospect, etc. etc. I would think Colonel John, who according to the chart made a middle move, and maybe Pyro, who had trouble early, would fit the bill this year.

I don't disagree, I just think a logical step would be the Peter Pan or The Barbaro with more of a preference to the latter. If all goes well he can point for a Belmont - Plate double. There are plenty of big races later in the Summer. No need to push a good horse too fast, well that is my opinion which probably doesn't mean a hill of beans to Frank. Afterall this horse just broke his Mdn in Feb.