2008 Kentucky Derby predictions

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

As I go through 70 posts in this thread so far I see no one with Cowboy Cal in their Top 4...I've liked this horse for a couple of weeks and think he can we win the race.

If you look at his pattern it is tremendous coming back to his 2 yr old top on the turf. Mind you in that same race at Laurel he ran a 3 on the turf. Barbaro in that same race ran awesome and got a 4. He just matched that 3 in the Blue Grass and ran a great race every step of the way. I don't think he is a need the lead type like everyone else. He has inherited the lead in a few of his races and hasn't given me the look on a rank front runner at all. His top race as a two year old he wasn't in the first flight of horses....A Giants Causeway out of a Seeking the Gold Mare can't dirt?....I take the works in the weeks leading up with a grain of salt. Important sure but I never want to be talked on or off simply from a work when a horse has a history....That being said, if you could give me one horse based on a work from the past 2 weeks it is Cowboy Cal. Easily the best work I saw...but I know, I know, it was on the Poly....True enough.

1. Cowboy Cal
2. Eight Belles
3. Pyro
4. Big Brown

I hope you're right

I still think he's going to get one of the very best trips in the whole race, it'll just be whether or not he's good enough. We'll see.

[Storm Cadet]

1. Pyro
2. Big Brown
3. Tale of Ekati
4. Col John

[Mike]

Denis of Cork will win, mainly because he'll drop back at the start with Borel, and will deftly avoid the carnage on the first turn. With so many speed horses crossing over, in the slop, amidst the thunder and lightning, I fear the worst catastrophe in Kentucky Derby history

My sane friends on this message board..

Can't you see the error of your ways? Look at the post above me. THINK ABOUT WHAT YOU'RE DOING!!!

[brianwspencer]

Well, like last year, I went through and added all this up.

I used the same 5-3-2-1 format that got us the Derby exacta last year to calculate it.

Side notes: For those like Jamie, who can't seem to just pick four horses, I split the 1 point between your fourth and fifth horse. For those who said they were going to use these X number of horses but were unsure of the order, I split the 11 points evenly between the horses you listed, rounded to the quarter point. For those who listed nearly half of the field, I ignored you.

And I got this:

Colonel John: 90.25
Pyro: 75.5
Big Brown: 54
Denis of Cork: 40
Z Fortune: 35.5
Court Vision: 33.5
Visionaire: 25
Monba: 24
Eight Belles: 23.25
Smooth Air: 19.5
Gayego: 18.5
Tale of Ekati: 12
Cool Coal Man: 9
Bob Black Jack: 6
Z Humor: 6
Recapturetheglory: 6
Cowboy Cal: 5
Big Truck:4.5
Adriano: 3
Anak Nakal:0

[dalakhani]

Adriano to hit the board.

Big brown

over

adriano, gayego, tale of ekati, pyro, BBJ

[horseofcourse]

Colonel John
Big Brown
Eight Belles
Pyro

In some order will be super...all chalk.