Eight Belles post # prediction thread

[Cannon Shell]

Unbridled's Song has never had a son, let alone a daughter hit the board in a TC race. What makes this filly any different than the other thousand or so UBS's that couldnt do it?

[Danzig]

cause rick porter says she can. silly.

[ddthetide]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Unbridled's Song has never had a son, let alone a daughter hit the board in a TC race. What makes this filly any different than the other thousand or so UBS's that couldnt do it?

because most of these colts aren't that good.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Unbridled's Song has never had a son, let alone a daughter hit the board in a TC race. What makes this filly any different than the other thousand or so UBS's that couldnt do it?

How about Boundary? Pulpit? Tiznow? I'm not in love with UBS at this distance, but almost all of them have miler pedigrees and I'd bet UBS hasn't had many offsping- male or female- that are this stout. I actually look at pedigree more than most when considering stretchouts, so I know she's up against it....while I actually do think she rates a shot, part of this is an inside jab at BT for loving Court Vision.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

How about Boundary? Pulpit? Tiznow? I'm not in love with UBS at this distance, but almost all of them have miler pedigrees and I'd bet UBS hasn't had many offsping- male or female- that are this stout. I actually look at pedigree more than most when considering stretchouts, so I know she's up against it....while I actually do think she rates a shot, part of this is an inside jab at BT for loving Court Vision.

I'm not sure i follow your logic. How exactly do you know how stout this horse is considering she has never even run 1 1/8 let alone 1 1/4? When a $150k stallion who has stood for 10 years hasnt had a single on the board finish in the TC series, that says plenty about any offspring of that sire.

[31lengths]

if she starts from the 7 post, she'll win.....so I'm guessing the 1 post.

[mclem10011]

So I'll guess 14 for the Derby.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I'm not sure i follow your logic. How exactly do you know how stout this horse is considering she has never even run 1 1/8 let alone 1 1/4? When a $150k stallion who has stood for 10 years hasnt had a single on the board finish in the TC series, that says plenty about any offspring of that sire.

Kinda like Boundary. He was known for 2yo's and first timers, but I think he only produced one millionaire in 15 years.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I'm not sure i follow your logic. How exactly do you know how stout this horse is considering she has never even run 1 1/8 let alone 1 1/4? When a $150k stallion who has stood for 10 years hasnt had a single on the board finish in the TC series, that says plenty about any offspring of that sire.

Since we've spent significant time at sales look at these beasts I know you dislike UBS as much as I do, the most overrated stallion of this generation, but something is different with this filly. He's notorious for fragile types (of his last Derby hopefuls since '02 Rockport Harbor, Value Plus, Song of the Sword, Eurosilver, Domestic Dispute, Buddha()- only two actually made the race), and she seems much more stout. The not running 9F or against boys is a huge strike against but she might just have been born in the right year to compete. This crop is AWFUL.

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Kinda like Boundary. He was known for 2yo's and first timers, but I think he only produced one millionaire in 15 years.

In Boundary's defense, he's never, ever gotten top mares. He's gotten a few good ones over the years (I'm an admitted Pomeroy goo-goo, of course)

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by philcski

Since we've spent significant time at sales look at these beasts I know you dislike UBS as much as I do, the most overrated stallion of this generation, but something is different with this filly. He's notorious for fragile types (of his last Derby hopefuls since '02 Rockport Harbor, Value Plus, Song of the Sword, Eurosilver, Domestic Dispute, Buddha()- only two actually made the race), and she seems much more stout. The not running 9F or against boys is a huge strike against but she might just have been born in the right year to compete. This crop is AWFUL.

Honestly, Phil ... I've never seen her up close and in person, but she looks like a pretty typical Unbridled's Song to me. Not that it really matters if she's fast enough to overcome it, but she's not an attractive moving horse at all. It seems to me that she's the type that would expend more energy to get up to speed than others. I'd have a hard time using her for that very reason alone, but now that I've said that - she'll win. Sigh.

[Uncle Daddy]

My guess in 18th ahead of a gassed Bob Black Jack and somebody else who gets bounced around bad at the break and ST turn. Tough day for the guy with the big hat

[Linny]

They get 6th choice and will go to the Derby.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I'm not sure i follow your logic. How exactly do you know how stout this horse is considering she has never even run 1 1/8 let alone 1 1/4? When a $150k stallion who has stood for 10 years hasnt had a single on the board finish in the TC series, that says plenty about any offspring of that sire.

She may have zero shot...but I don't think if I had a horse I would not run her in a race simply because she was an "Unbridled's Song". She may not be "stout" but she has not exactly been babied, I'm pretty sure she's gone to the post more than any other "colt" in the field and although not going 9f ever, she has gone more than 8f in 5 of her starts and at least 8f in 8 of her 9 starts. The Derby will be her 10th start...in today's form of "racing" that is pretty stout I think. What injury problems has she had in those 9 starts?? She's run triple the races than the favorite in the race. Her numbers are not too bad compared to the rest of the field, and in all honesty better than most.

My only concern is she has not raced against the boys and she has tracked pretty slow paces in her last two wins with ideal setups. Don't know how they'll place her in a fast pace scenario.

I simply think to not run in a race becuase of who your sire is doesn't make a lot of sense. AT one time Bold Ruler's couldn't get 10f or something of that sort.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

She may have zero shot...but I don't think if I had a horse I would not run her in a race simply because she was an "Unbridled's Song". She may not be "stout" but she has not exactly been babied, I'm pretty sure she's gone to the post more than any other "colt" in the field and although not going 9f ever, she has gone more than 8f in 5 of her starts and at least 8f in 8 of her 9 starts. The Derby will be her 10th start...in today's form of "racing" that is pretty stout I think. What injury problems has she had in those 9 starts?? She's run triple the races than the favorite in the race. Her numbers are not too bad compared to the rest of the field, and in all honesty better than most.

My only concern is she has not raced against the boys and she has tracked pretty slow paces in her last two wins with ideal setups. Don't know how they'll place her in a fast pace scenario.

I simply think to not run in a race becuase of who your sire is doesn't make a lot of sense. AT one time Bold Ruler's couldn't get 10f or something of that sort.

Since when does the number of times a horse runs have anything to do with their ability to run a given distance? I think asking your horse to do something that it is not really made to do doesnt make a lot of sense.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Since when does the number of times a horse runs have anything to do with their ability to run a given distance? I think asking your horse to do something that it is not really made to do doesnt make a lot of sense.

the number of routes has to matter. so you would say a horse by Distorted Humor making his route debut in the derby would be more likely to get the 10F distance than Eight Belles who has routed 7 times just because she is by UBS?

she may not be good enough to win but she does not run like a horse that is maxed out for distance, or like most other Unbridled Song offspring for that matter. in every race she runs evenly and finishes very strong. once they have 8-9 races on display, the race record tells me far more about what to expect than looking at the breeding.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Since when does the number of times a horse runs have anything to do with their ability to run a given distance? I think asking your horse to do something that it is not really made to do doesnt make a lot of sense.

Her number of times running has nothing to do with her ability to get a given distance. You were basing your assessment strictly on her sire. I know her sire was fragile and his offspring have been known to be fragile. She doesn't appear to be fragile due to her continual running the last 7 months. I have read about Secretariat...his sire was alleged to not produce distance running offspring at one time either. I don't know how big a thing that was at that time, but I know people were talking about it. I honestly don't know if Eight Belles can finish in the money or will run up the track...but horses have been known once in awhile to outrun their "pedigree"...(Smarty Jones.) I'm not sure how many horses in today's breeding escapades are really made to go 10f any more than Eight Belles is. I think the majority of the horses in the Derby are being asked to do something they're not really made to do.