Smooth Air

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Man, I know you've taken plenty of stands in the past. I'm just saying I think it's lame to spit on people who like Smooth Air without backing it up or telling us who your "contenders" are. That's all.

I don't think it's " lame " at all.....in fact I think it is just the opposite. I am trying to dissuade people from betting a horse that I believe has little or no chance and even at 40:1, and I think he will be considerably lower, is an underlay.

Perhaps I should " back it up ", and I will, but I don't offer my opinions unless I feel I can back them up....it's basically implicit and more than most I have probably earned that right. However, in a nutshell, while Smooth Air is a nice and talented horse, what he showed inarguably is that he will not get better as the distances get longer. He had an absolute dream trip and set-up in the Florida Derby, made what looked to be a winning move on the turn, and then had absolutely no finish. The only reason he finished second was that there were no horses of quality ( besides the winner ) competing that day. Any that may be better than him, Elysium Fields comes to mind, did not fire at all. Essentially he was second by default....just as Tomcito was third for the same reasons. Look how many were fooled by him.

[ELA]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't think it's " lame " at all.....in fact I think it is just the opposite. I am trying to dissuade people from betting a horse that I believe has little or no chance and even at 40:1, and I think he will be considerably lower, is an underlay.

Perhaps I should " back it up ", and I will, but I don't offer my opinions unless I feel I can back them up....it's basically implicit and more than most I have probably earned that right. However, in a nutshell, while Smooth Air is a nice and talented horse, what he showed inarguably is that he will not get better as the distances get longer. He had an absolute dream trip and set-up in the Florida Derby, made what looked to be a winning move on the turn, and then had absolutely no finish. The only reason he finished second was that there were no horses of quality ( besides the winner ) competing that day. Any that may be better than him, Elysium Fields comes to mind, did not fire at all. Essentially he was second by default....just as Tomcito was third for the same reasons. Look how many were fooled by him.

By the way -- I may not agree with Andy's opinion, and my friend (friend's family) owns Smooth Air.

Eric

[hi_im_god]

i think getting first dibs on a winner is all about ego.

there aren't a lot of races where people try to pick the winner before the field is finalized. more information is usually better than less information.

i settled on charismatic 10 minutes before post because i thought he had 1 chance in 10 of winning but was 30-1. yet i still locked into saarland after the remsen.

so i understand the urge.

but i respect people that resist it.

[Scav]

Everyone HIDE, our fearless leader is reading the thread

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't think it's " lame " at all.....in fact I think it is just the opposite. I am trying to dissuade people from betting a horse that I believe has little or no chance and even at 40:1, and I think he will be considerably lower, is an underlay.

Perhaps I should " back it up ", and I will, but I don't offer my opinions unless I feel I can back them up....it's basically implicit and more than most I have probably earned that right. However, in a nutshell, while Smooth Air is a nice and talented horse, what he showed inarguably is that he will not get better as the distances get longer. He had an absolute dream trip and set-up in the Florida Derby, made what looked to be a winning move on the turn, and then had absolutely no finish. The only reason he finished second was that there were no horses of quality ( besides the winner ) competing that day. Any that may be better than him, Elysium Fields comes to mind, did not fire at all. Essentially he was second by default....just as Tomcito was third for the same reasons. Look how many were fooled by him.

I hear what you are saying and I felt exactly the same way after the Florida Derby but the more I look through this garbage we are presented with as a Derby field and from watching all the preps that took place since then this horse is the one at long odds that keeps on looking better and better. After Big Brown and Pyro I can make as much of an argument for Smooth Air as I can for any other horse in the field. Hell, I think Anak Nakal has a hell of a chance at getting up for fourth or fifth and that horse would make Andromeda's Hero look like a speedster. There are two solid dirt horses with question marks and one Tiznow proven on the synthetics, and a bunch of crap in this race. I can go on every thread and give multiple reasons not to like every horse in the field and I'll be right on 19 out of 20 of them for the win and 15 out of 20 for running top five. So if you are so sure that Smooth Air has no chance before the draw then who do you like before the draw that you'll guarantee beat him? You want Tale of Slowkati? Pick a horse besides the top three, I'll bet you a few rounds at Siro's (or Clancy's if our wallets are light) on it head to head against Smooth Air.

[blackthroatedwind]

Tale of Ekati is a much better horse than Smooth Air though he too is probably distance challenged.

I've seen enough of Smooth Air to be reasonably confident he's a non-contendor. I will wait for the draw to form any other opinions.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Tale of Ekati is a much better horse than Smooth Air though he too is probably distance challenged.

I've seen enough of Smooth Air to be reasonably confident he's a non-contendor. I will wait for the draw to form any other opinions.

OK, but if you don't want to take a bet against him with anyone but the three favorites then you can hardly make it out like those of us drinking the Smooth Aid are holding an indefensible opinion.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

OK, but if you don't want to take a bet against him with anyone but the three favorites then you can hardly make it out like those of us drinking the Smooth Aid are holding an indefensible opinion.

I don't get the discussion. I don't want to make any bets at all....why should I want to? I have no real opinion. It's a week and half before the race. There's plenty of time.

I understand people get worked up for the Derby. That's great. I don't. I spend hours every day agonizing over races being run that day ( or the next ). I have plenty of action without having to worry about silly ego related bets on a race I will, at best, have a vague opinion on.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't get the discussion. I don't want to make any bets at all....why should I want to? I have no real opinion. It's a week and half before the race. There's plenty of time.

I understand people get worked up for the Derby. That's great. I don't. I spend hours every day agonizing over races being run that day ( or the next ). I have plenty of action without having to worry about silly ego related bets on a race I will, at best, have a vague opinion on.

Out of curiousity, have you ever had a real strong opinion on the Derby, results?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Scav

Out of curiousity, have you ever had a real strong opinion on the Derby, results?

How do you have an opinion about the results before the race

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Scav

Out of curiousity, have you ever had a real strong opinion on the Derby, results?

Yes, I loved Silver Charm and I loved Go for Gin.

I also absolutely hated Smarty Jones.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't get the discussion. I don't want to make any bets at all....why should I want to? I have no real opinion. It's a week and half before the race. There's plenty of time.

I understand people get worked up for the Derby. That's great. I don't. I spend hours every day agonizing over races being run that day ( or the next ). I have plenty of action without having to worry about silly ego related bets on a race I will, at best, have a vague opinion on.

I understand, it's hard to defend the indefensible.

[hi_im_god]

i have almost no opinion on smooth air.

but i hate recapturetheglory and think he has zero chance.

do i really need to have a winner to respond to the recapture fans because i'm dumping on him?

[ELA]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Tale of Ekati is a much better horse than Smooth Air though he too is probably distance challenged.

I've seen enough of Smooth Air to be reasonably confident he's a non-contendor. I will wait for the draw to form any other opinions.

So, Andy, before the draw -- who do you specifically like? Please be clear and definitive! Just kidding.

Eric

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by ELA

So, Andy, before the draw -- who do you specifically like? Please be clear and definitive! Just kidding.

Eric

Yeah, because that's what I asked him.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

However, in a nutshell, while Smooth Air is a nice and talented horse, what he showed inarguably is that he will not get better as the distances get longer. He had an absolute dream trip and set-up in the Florida Derby, made what looked to be a winning move on the turn, and then had absolutely no finish. The only reason he finished second was that there were no horses of quality ( besides the winner ) competing that day. Any that may be better than him, Elysium Fields comes to mind, did not fire at all. Essentially he was second by default....just as Tomcito was third for the same reasons. Look how many were fooled by him.

While I wasn't fooled by Tomcito (and I'm not exactly at the head of my class), who clearly got the best of it tripwise, I'm interested as to why you think that SA got a perfect trip. It's not his fault that Elysium Fields or any of the others didn't run, and I certainly don't blame him for being outrun in the stretch by Big Brown.

I'll be loading up on him in the DERBY, just as soon as I collect my money from my bet last year on Coaltown Cat.