Derby Post Question

[Mike]

It is interesting that posts 15 and 16, the first two in the auxillary gate, have done well in the Derby. 17 and out are horrible. The evidence is getting weaker for the two aforementioned posts(*15,16), so I'll re-look at it

[Mike]

Posts 15 and 16 have won 5 of the last 12 Kentucky Derby's in which there have been 16 or more runners

[miraja2]

Don't forget that if Gayego gets an outside post, his jock might just keep him 15-to-20 wide around both turns.

[smuthg]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Don't forget that if Gayego gets an outside post, his jock might just keep him 15-to-20 wide around both turns.

what's this "might" stuff...

[whodey17]

I think post really doesnt matter for Smooth Air. Post will be more important for Big Brown. If he is in the 20 hole then I think he has no chance at winning.

[ateamstupid]

I think that, excluding the terrible posts (1, 18-20), post is important only in relation to who you draw near.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by whodey17

I think post really doesnt matter for Smooth Air. Post will be more important for Big Brown. If he is in the 20 hole then I think he has no chance at winning.

He got it done with the virtual impossible post in the FL Derby, so I wouldnt see how he cant get it done from post 20 in the Derby. Sure, its quite a bit wider, but the track configuration is a lot more fair at Churchill than Gulfstream... they have a longer way to the first turn in this race. Big Brown's speed should get him into good position. There are only 2-3 horses who could possibly outsprint him early- BBJ, Recapture and Gayego.
I wouldnt want any horse at 2/1 in the Derby though.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Gander

He got it done with the virtual impossible post in the FL Derby, so I wouldnt see how he cant get it done from post 20 in the Derby. Sure, its quite a bit wider, but the track configuration is a lot more fair at Churchill than Gulfstream... they have a longer way to the first turn in this race. Big Brown's speed should get him into good position. There are only 2-3 horses who could possibly outsprint him early- BBJ, Recapture and Gayego.
I wouldnt want any horse at 2/1 in the Derby though.

Post 20 didn't hurt Clyde Van Dusen back in 1929. Since then post 20 is winless. Aside from Clyde, only one horse has won from post 17 and out... Gato Del Sol from post 18 in 1982.

[whodey17]

Originally Posted by Gander

He got it done with the virtual impossible post in the FL Derby, so I wouldnt see how he cant get it done from post 20 in the Derby. Sure, its quite a bit wider, but the track configuration is a lot more fair at Churchill than Gulfstream... they have a longer way to the first turn in this race. Big Brown's speed should get him into good position. There are only 2-3 horses who could possibly outsprint him early- BBJ, Recapture and Gayego.
I wouldnt want any horse at 2/1 in the Derby though.

True, but the caliber of horses in the Florida Derby was pathetic. He might get the lead with his speed, but I wouldnt be so confident in him making the 1 1/4 distance if he goes :22.1 for the first quarter. And no thank you at 2-1 or even 5-1.