Smooth Air

[miraja2]

I can't think of a single legitimate reason why anyone would consider this colt to be a contender to win the race.
He's a nice animal with a smart trainer, and he certainly gives an honest effort, but the day this colt wins a 10f, G1 race is the same day merasmag wins a pulitzer.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I can't think of a single legitimate reason why anyone would consider this colt to be a contender to win the race.
He's a nice animal with a smart trainer, and he certainly gives an honest effort, but the day this colt wins a 10f, G1 race is the same day merasmag wins a pulitzer.

How about more pace than in any other of the preps we have seen. I cant think of a single prep that had fast fractions. If 2 or 3 horses go out hard in the Derby, and the stalkers move prematurely, and you have a pace meltdown, Smooth Air is one of about 3 horses who will likely benefit from this and pull a "Giacomo", if you will. Hes got a good chance. Just dont fall for too short of a price.

[HaloWishingwell]

In my opinion there are better closers to possibly pull a "GIACOMO" than SMOOTH AIR. Besides seeing the TOMCITO was the horse right behind him I also take a chance that someone or many will be between the beaten lengths between BIG BROWN and SMOOTH AIR.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by HaloWishingwell

In my opinion there are better closers to possibly pull a "GIACOMO" than SMOOTH AIR. Besides seeing the TOMCITO was the horse right behind him I also take a chance that someone or many will be between the beaten lengths between BIG BROWN and SMOOTH AIR.

"Right behind him"? Smooth Air beat Tomcito by 7 1/2. If that's "right behind him", then Smooth Air photo'ed with Big Brown.

[blackthroatedwind]

Derby lunacy has reached a new low with this thread.

Smooth Air? Thanks....I need the laughs.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Derby lunacy has reached a new low with this thread.

Smooth Air? Thanks....I need the laughs.

I guess this means i should stop trying to find a Smooth Air hat for you?

[SniperSB23]

I think I'm drinking from the Smooth Aid too. He keeps looking better and better to me.

[HaloWishingwell]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

"Right behind him"? Smooth Air beat Tomcito by 7 1/2. If that's "right behind him", then Smooth Air photo'ed with Big Brown.

Judging from his Lexington race that as close TOMCITO has been to anything outside of Peru.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by HaloWishingwell

Judging from his Lexington race that as close TOMCITO has been to anything outside of Peru.

And we all know how conclusive those polytrack races are. Besides, as much as everyone rails on him (and he was definitely a bad bet at 3/1), he was only beaten 3 3/4 lengths on Saturday.

[The Bid]

With the mediocrity in this crop and the consistancy of Smooth Air I think its very difficult to exclude him. Not only that I think his best races are yet to come. Hes not flashy, but he runs his race each time you lead him over and theres something to be said for that. In this particular field he figures to factor.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Gander

How about more pace than in any other of the preps we have seen. I cant think of a single prep that had fast fractions. If 2 or 3 horses go out hard in the Derby, and the stalkers move prematurely, and you have a pace meltdown, Smooth Air is one of about 3 horses who will likely benefit from this and pull a "Giacomo", if you will. Hes got a good chance.

Well, they went 22.76 and 45.83 in the Florida Derby. That isn't exactly crawling.
He had a very favorable post and a great trip that day, but despite that (and despite the fact that he seemed to be running his guts out in the stretch), he didn't close an inch. The pace was fast enough that day that the horses who were second, third, fourth, and fifth at a 1/4 and a 1/2, ALL finished seventh or worse. It wasn't like they were cheap speed either. Fierce Wind and Elysium Fields were two of the favorites. Meanwhile, the horses coming from off the pace (Tomcito, Cool Gator, Majestic Warrior) ALL finished in the top half. Big Brown obviously ran a very nice race that day, but given the early pace, I have to think that if Smooth Air was really a top-notch two-turn horse, he would have made up SOME ground, or at least have done something in the stretch other than look completely spent.
His previous race in Tampa (the Sam Davis) showed me the same thing. Big Truck simply ran by him at the end.
To me he is a closer that just flattens out in the stretch when asked to go two-turns, and I don't think the increase in distance to 10f can do anything but hurt him.

[Travis Stone]

I don't see how anyone can honestly toss horses on a whim in this race. This entire crop has been nothing but a bunch of horses taking turns beating each other. If someone feels like Smooth Air can get the trip at 40-1, I say have at it. There's nothing wrong with betting a horse who is 7-for-7 in the money in a group like this.