Can someone explain the Colonel John silliness to me?

[cmorioles]

Beyers are fine on sythetic tracks when comparing them to other synthetic numbers. They are not, however, fine when comparing them to dirt numbers.

He is very live because of

1)the lack of talent in the field
2) his seasoning,
3) his pedigree for dirt
4) right running style for derby
5) and most importantly he appears to be one of the few without any question about the 10f distance.

If he puts in a big work on the churchill strip I would think he would be the horse to beat. I just don't see how you can take less than 5-1 on any horse in this field, especially a horse with 2 career dirt races (big brown) or a horse with no career dirt races (colonel john). I will take Cool Coal Man at a nice price.

[Mike]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Beyers are fine on sythetic tracks when comparing them to other synthetic numbers. They are not, however, fine when comparing them to dirt numbers.

Thanks for saying this, it seems to be overlooked by most writers when discussing byers in these Triple Crown races when comparing the figs to past years same race figs on dirt


All the synth figs for 2 and 3 year olds are correspondingly low

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Mike

Thanks for saying this, it seems to be overlooked by most writers when discussing byers in these Triple Crown races when comparing the figs to past years same race figs on dirt


All the synth figs for 2 and 3 year olds are correspondingly low

it does make it hard to handicap, what is a 90 synthetic at santa anita really worth 100 on dirt, or visa versa, horse runs 100 beyer at aqu ships to santa anita, should we give him a 90 and judge him to the other synthetic numbers the horses have he is going against? This derby preps and other stake races have certainly opened some eyes into how the figures are being made. Zenyatta looked visually impressive at santa anita yet kept running a slow figure, she ships and runs just as impressive as before and gets a 104? How did she get so fast, or did she and there is a problem with the figures, if figures are a way to determine raw ability?

The synthetics make it hard to figure but the trend right now is that the CA horses are doing quite well against the east coast horses. Two big wins in Arkansas and another today even though it was on polytrack. If they get a great work in at Churchill it would be easy to make the case for them.

The one thing you can't really argue with is that the east coast horses are very slow this year.

I think the two Jones fillies might be better than all of them except Big Brown and he is very vulnerable in the derby.