Can someone explain the Colonel John silliness to me?

[robfla]

couple reasons.

- process of elimination, except for Big Brown who really is fast enough?
- Throw out beyers on synthetic as they are not meaningful.
- He can plod along and run down the wilting frontrunners ( ala Giacomo )
- Cali horses are running elsewhere and winning this year
- Tiznow, true, dominant sire on synthetic surfaces, but didnt he win a good race or two on dirt?
- and last but not least: he should have no problems with the distance

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by robfla

- Cali horses are running elsewhere and winning this year

I understand the rest of your reasoning but think this is meaningless. We've seen in the older male division that the also rans on the synthetics are often best on dirt. Seeing Tiago win at Oaklawn doesn't make me suddenly think that Go Between and Champs Elysees are dirt horses. The likelihood is that the best on the synthetics are not going to be the best on dirt.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I understand the rest of your reasoning but think this is meaningless. We've seen in the older male division that the also rans on the synthetics are often best on dirt. Seeing Tiago win at Oaklawn doesn't make me suddenly think that Go Between and Champs Elysees are dirt horses. The likelihood is that the best on the synthetics are not going to be the best on dirt.

after conceeding this, it seems that you have 1 arguement left which is he might not like dirt.

wouldn't you want to see how he works at churchill before dismissing him?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I'm not sure I'd hold the modest Beyers too much against CJ - it's hard for a 3yo to light it up figure wise in slow paced synthetic track routes.

He will stay 10 furlongs - and while he is unlikely to improve much on dirt - I'm sure he'll probably hold his synthetic form on it.

He's a horse that wouldn't leave me totally shocked if he won - I just think he's going to be overbet and I don't want him.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'm not sure I'd hold the modest Beyers too much against CJ - it's hard for a 3yo to light it up figure wise in slow paced synthetic track routes.

He will stay 10 furlongs - and while he is unlikely to improve much on dirt - I'm sure he'll probably hold his synthetic form on it.

He's a horse that wouldn't leave me totally shocked if he won - I just think he's going to be overbet and I don't want him.

Yeah, that pretty much sums up my thoughts.

[slotdirt]

Is there a must play horse in this Derby? If so, I'm seriously missing something.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Yes, Pyro.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

after conceeding this, it seems that you have 1 arguement left which is he might not like dirt.

wouldn't you want to see how he works at churchill before dismissing him?

I said in my initial post that seeing how he works might change things. As of now though I don't understand how everyone can be acting like he's a must play horse. I think he needs to prove he belongs on dirt before he is worthy of consideration on any tickets.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

after conceeding this, it seems that you have 1 arguement left which is he might not like dirt.

wouldn't you want to see how he works at churchill before dismissing him?

would seem to be gigantic question mark, no?

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

would seem to be gigantic question mark, no?

definetly a question mark. not sure i'd call it gigantic.

[sumitas]

I think BBJ will be off the lead until the top of the stretch, then on the lead. a SA box looks good ...depending on conditions...ahhh, chillin with my cali boys until the big week

[hockey2315]

Bob Black Jack and Recapturetheglory will be battling down the stretch. . . For 19th. . .

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

definetly a question mark. not sure i'd call it gigantic.

The ability to handle the surface makes all the other questions moot. If he does not handle dirt, he cant win regardless of everything else.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

The ability to handle the surface makes all the other questions moot. If he does not handle dirt, he cant win regardless of everything else.

agreed. i don't know how to quantify the likelyhood he doesn't handle the surface as anything other than a question mark until he ships in.

you stated it was a gigantic question mark. i took that to mean you don't expect him to handle the surface. your opinion is probably better informed than mine but for my part i'm waiting until i see what he does at the track.

i'm in no way endorsing the horse. i just think labelling "silly" the expectation he could run competetivly was itself silly.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

The ability to handle the surface makes all the other questions moot. If he does not handle dirt, he cant win regardless of everything else.

The whole synthetic/dirt question is THE story of this Derby.