Tomcito !!!

[prudery]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Who was behind him? Doesn't that sort of factor into things a bit? I mean if War Pass ran at Beulah park, wouldn't he look impressive?

Of course War Pass would look better at Beulah, but Beulah horses do not hit the board in G1 races, period ...
While it is hard to assess Peruvian G1s, traditionally South American horses of graded caliber there have done well here ...
Tomcito is the only horse to have run in and won G1 races at 10 and 12 furlongs ... He stays the course ....
His speed and class were questionable, and his first here off a layoff was acceptable but not inspiring ...
As far as his speed, he runs like a tilted Cuisinart, but he works faster than these bums do---and perhaps faster than they race ... Three furlongs in 34 and change ???? An ordinary six furlong work finishing the last eighth in 11 and change ???? The speed is there ...
I remain interested in this guy, both for his Cinderella story---bought for 7 grandish---the foreign intrigue, the fact that he stays, and these gaudy works ...
This year's lot of Derby horses are all vulnerable for various reasons ... And it is undeniable that they are generally slow and have no true finishing kick ... Nor do most look like anything over a mile and an eighth--to be generous---is anything but a stretch ...
Tomcito, IMO, is worthy of, at least, consideration ...

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

He hit the board because he passed a bunch of tired horses, period. I've never seen such praise for a horse beaten double digit lengths. He's working fast? We all know that always transers to the afternoons, right? Sorry the whole Cinderella story isn't as interesting to me, because when I wager my money I try not to let ridiculous things like that cloud my thinking. Good luck with him.

Don't you think it is at least possible that he will move forward off of his start in the Florida Derby given the fact that it was his first off a layoff? Sure he passed a lot of tired horses at Gulfstream, but there will probably be a lot of tired horses in Louisville (and in future 10f races) too. Who knows if he'll even make it to that race, but there are always a lot of horses nearly walking in the final furlong of the Derby, and it doesn't seem at all likely that he will be one of those.
At this point he is certainly an unlikely winner, but I think his Florida Derby performance might be slightly better than many are giving him credit for. If he takes a step forward off of that race - which certainly seems possible - I don't see why he might not be at least a contender for a minor share.

[prudery]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Don't you think it is at least possible that he will move forward off of his start in the Florida Derby given the fact that it was his first off a layoff? Sure he passed a lot of tired horses at Gulfstream, but there will probably be a lot of tired horses in Louisville (and in future 10f races) too. Who knows if he'll even make it to that race, but there are always a lot of horses nearly walking in the final furlong of the Derby, and it doesn't seem at all likely that he will be one of those.
At this point he is certainly an unlikely winner, but I think his Florida Derby performance might be slightly better than many are giving him credit for. If he takes a step forward off of that race - which certainly seems possible - I don't see why he might not be at least a contender for a minor share.

Those are also my beliefs ... And you aren't kidding that there will be a lot of tired horses in the Derby---we have already seen the stagger fest at 9furlongs .... And those sparkling nearly 14 second last eighths ...
Since I do not bet, I can amuse myself without financial consideration .... And I definately see him as a contender, and would love to see him stay on past the pretenders to a victory ... I believe he will be sharper nextout--he needs to be ...
I am old enough to remember the same claptrap spewed over Canonero II ... It was a somewhat similar story---a somewhat similar ending would be amusing and satisfying at least to me, wagering aside ...

[Theatrical]

Originally Posted by prudery

Those are also my beliefs ... And you aren't kidding that there will be a lot of tired horses in the Derby---we have already seen the stagger fest at 9furlongs .... And those sparkling nearly 14 second last eighths ...
Since I do not bet, I can amuse myself without financial consideration .... And I definately see him as a contender, and would love to see him stay on past the pretenders to a victory ... I believe he will be sharper nextout--he needs to be ...
I am old enough to remember the same claptrap spewed over Canonero II ... It was a somewhat similar story---a somewhat similar ending would be amusing and satisfying at least to me, wagering aside ...

I remember the Canonero story well, too. Actually, one of my favorites. I'll be interested to see how he fares this weekend.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by prudery

Those are also my beliefs ... And you aren't kidding that there will be a lot of tired horses in the Derby---we have already seen the stagger fest at 9furlongs .... And those sparkling nearly 14 second last eighths ...
Since I do not bet, I can amuse myself without financial consideration .... And I definately see him as a contender, and would love to see him stay on past the pretenders to a victory ... I believe he will be sharper nextout--he needs to be ...
I am old enough to remember the same claptrap spewed over Canonero II ... It was a somewhat similar story---a somewhat similar ending would be amusing and satisfying at least to me, wagering aside ...

He could be, but his next race is on poly, so I don't know if it will tell us anything useful regarding how he has progressed from the Florida Derby, or if he actually has ANY chance to be a factor in Kentucky.
The only thing it might tell us is how much he likes poly.

[prudery]

Originally Posted by miraja2

He could be, but his next race is on poly, so I don't know if it will tell us anything useful regarding how he has progressed from the Florida Derby, or if he actually has ANY chance to be a factor in Kentucky.
The only thing it might tell us is how much he likes poly.

I didn't realize that the Lexington was only a mile and a sixteenth either, poly or not ... He'd better get his ass up into contention earlier in this one vis a vis the distance and the horses running ... As far as the poly, I believe his workouts were on it ... Saturday may be somewhat inconclusive even if he does win, but I'd like to see him closer early on at any rate ...

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by prudery

I didn't realize that the Lexington was only a mile and a sixteenth either, poly or not ... He'd better get his ass up into contention earlier in this one vis a vis the distance and the horses running ... As far as the poly, I believe his workouts were on it ... Saturday may be somewhat inconclusive even if he does win, but I'd like to see him closer early on at any rate ...

Honestly, he doesn't strike me as a likely winner of the Lexington, although I suppose it is at least possible that he might just really like the tires.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by prudery

I am old enough to remember the same claptrap spewed over Canonero II ... It was a somewhat similar story---a somewhat similar ending would be amusing and satisfying at least to me, wagering aside ...

Canonero II had beaten 3 and ups at 10f in February (I think, maybe March) in Venezuela, a Northern Hemisphere country where the breeding season is the same as it is here. And as far as I recall, he had not won any kind of stakes race at the time he flew here. Tomcito is a Northern Hemisphere foal, who was running vs. Southern Hemisphere 3yos (he was officially a 3yo by their rules) as a 2yo in actual age. And he won 2/3 of their Triple Crown, in essence the Kentucky Derby and Belmont, despite being 6 months less mature than his competitors.

We in this country frequently see South American 3yos brought up here to race in the middle of their 3yo season, only to be considered as 4yos and weighted as such in handicaps. And many of them win races anyway - Einstein was a 3yo in fact the first time he won the GP Turf H (G1).

[The Bid]

You can see what was behind and in front of him in the other thread we went in depth.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Shocking....

lol dam !!!
but really hoss, i honestly am starting to value your opinion, your a smart kid... kinda like me !! but anyway i dont think tomcito is great or anything, but i think he could be a lot better then your giving him credit for

[prudery]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Shocking....

Guess I am amusing you ... Shockingly, I have bet on occassion---shockingly on horses, though not regularly ... In fact my first winning wager was with a guy in 6th grade on our Derby choices ... I won ...
I have also bet on myself--notably a rare sportscar and 5 gs ... Did not lose either ...
I am disinclined to bet but rarely after a binge at the Spa a decade or so ago ...
But I am occassionally inclined to bet on a Scrabble game ... I will bet a grand on myself to beat you silly before I put 20 bucks on Tomcito to win, but that does not preclude me being interested in him, thank you ...